Dividend Growth Forum

(06-16-2021, 10:34 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2021, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2021, 10:00 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]Bought some LDOS. Between the earnings miss and short report I haven’t seen it this low in a while. So I said why not lol. You in on this one too Fenders ?

I haven't researched it.  Hadn't heard of it until you and Otter were discussing it last week.  I am trying to not add too many more new names.  We'll see how long that lasts. 

What I need is for tech to get hammered for real again, but this market is resilient.

Very small trades this morning.  Added a few shares to DG-ARKF  Sold a few SLV puts.

(06-16-2021, 10:29 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]New position in LYB

Fits my theme. Nice 4% dividend and PE under 20

Go for it!  Otter scared me out of it 

Well You should be scared right back into it. It's one of the few companies undervalued. They made $3.18 last quarter and will make $4.75 next year in earnings and are the fastest growing materials stock . Not many can say that. And on top of that the raised dividend by 7.6% 

$150 and it would still be undervalued 

(06-16-2021, 10:45 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 10:29 AM)brought divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]New position in LYB

Fits my theme. Nice 4% dividend and PE under 20

LYB is in a strange spot right now, enjoying the increased pricing for its olefin/polyolefin products that make up more than half its revenues (brought on by global re-opening and supply chain disruptions), but is also pressured by the rapidly increasing costs of its input (crude oil), and may be facing long term pressure for its major revenue source, as many governments around the world seek to reduce the amount of plastic packaging/pollution. 

Its average P/E ratio over 10 years is 9.85. So on a TTM basis it is 56% above its average P/E, and using FAST Graphs' blended P/E of 11 (incorporates future earnings estimates), it is 11.6% above its average P/E.

Prior to listing under its current ticker and raising its dividend for 11 consecutive years, Lyondell declared bankruptcy and wiped out all of its shareholders. It operates in an extremely low-margin business that can easily be disrupted by spikes in the price of crude, competitive pressure from foreign entities not subject to equivalent environmental/workplace regulations, and any substantial change to demand for its products. Bought some shares in the $60-70 range last year, and sold a bit over $100 a few months back. IME, companies like this always seem to crater right after releasing glowing quarterly reports about record profits and profit expectations (got burned by AA and FCX this way years back). Commodities and basic materials are rough.

 You can throw all that out. They got hurt pre-pandemic and their plastic material business in on fire. They are just at the beginning.  Bankruptcy in 2009 was a long time ago. There are 100's of same like companies that went through that and are trading at new highs. Just because they had issues in the past doesn't mean the future isn't bright. 

There total debt right now is 0.23%. Very low. So the probably of them going bankrupt again is very unlikely. In fact CAT carries a higher debt and bankrupt probability at 39%


LYB posted profits of $1,070 million or $3.18 per share in first-quarter 2021, up from $144 million or 42 cents in the year-ago quarter. Earnings per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65.
Revenues increased 21.2% year over year to $9,082 million in the reported quarter. However, the figure missed the consensus mark of $9,328.5 million. Consolidated EBITDA for the quarter more than doubled year over year to $1,585 million.

(06-16-2021, 10:45 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 10:29 AM)brought divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]New position in LYB

Fits my theme. Nice 4% dividend and PE under 20

LYB is in a strange spot right now, enjoying the increased pricing for its olefin/polyolefin products that make up more than half its revenues (brought on by global re-opening and supply chain disruptions), but is also pressured by the rapidly increasing costs of its input (crude oil), and may be facing long term pressure for its major revenue source, as many governments around the world seek to reduce the amount of plastic packaging/pollution. 

Its average P/E ratio over 10 years is 9.85. So on a TTM basis it is 56% above its average P/E, and using FAST Graphs' blended P/E of 11 (incorporates future earnings estimates), it is 11.6% above its average P/E.

Prior to listing under its current ticker and raising its dividend for 11 consecutive years, Lyondell declared bankruptcy and wiped out all of its shareholders. It operates in an extremely low-margin business that can easily be disrupted by spikes in the price of crude, competitive pressure from foreign entities not subject to equivalent environmental/workplace regulations, and any substantial change to demand for its products. Bought some shares in the $60-70 range last year, and sold a bit over $100 a few months back. IME, companies like this always seem to crater right after releasing glowing quarterly reports about record profits and profit expectations (got burned by AA and FCX this way years back). Commodities and basic materials are rough.

You should have stayed in AA and FCX. You would have a hell of a profit on those stocks right now 

AA - $10 to $36
FCX $10 to $37

And both have pulled back from the highs. CLF can be added to that list as well. These companies have some of the best growth rates right now. But me personally wont buy those names because of the non dividends.

I like LYB as well. I get the Steven Cohen report and he bought a crap load of shares this quarter. It's his top stock pick for 2021

Today added some HD, MO, BMY, MMC, LYB, and MPC

Sold MMM, UAL and LLY

(06-16-2021, 10:55 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 10:45 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 10:29 AM)brought divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]New position in LYB

Fits my theme. Nice 4% dividend and PE under 20

LYB is in a strange spot right now, enjoying the increased pricing for its olefin/polyolefin products that make up more than half its revenues (brought on by global re-opening and supply chain disruptions), but is also pressured by the rapidly increasing costs of its input (crude oil), and may be facing long term pressure for its major revenue source, as many governments around the world seek to reduce the amount of plastic packaging/pollution. 

Its average P/E ratio over 10 years is 9.85. So on a TTM basis it is 56% above its average P/E, and using FAST Graphs' blended P/E of 11 (incorporates future earnings estimates), it is 11.6% above its average P/E.

Prior to listing under its current ticker and raising its dividend for 11 consecutive years, Lyondell declared bankruptcy and wiped out all of its shareholders. It operates in an extremely low-margin business that can easily be disrupted by spikes in the price of crude, competitive pressure from foreign entities not subject to equivalent environmental/workplace regulations, and any substantial change to demand for its products. Bought some shares in the $60-70 range last year, and sold a bit over $100 a few months back. IME, companies like this always seem to crater right after releasing glowing quarterly reports about record profits and profit expectations (got burned by AA and FCX this way years back). Commodities and basic materials are rough.

 You can throw all that out. They got hurt pre-pandemic and their plastic material business in on fire. They are just at the beginning.  Bankruptcy in 2009 was a long time ago. There are 100's of same like companies that went through that and are trading at new highs. Just because they had issues in the past doesn't mean the future isn't bright. 

There total debt right now is 0.23%. Very low. So the probably of them going bankrupt again is very unlikely. In fact CAT carries a higher debt and bankrupt probability at 39%


LYB posted profits of $1,070 million or $3.18 per share in first-quarter 2021, up from $144 million or 42 cents in the year-ago quarter. Earnings per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65.
Revenues increased 21.2% year over year to $9,082 million in the reported quarter. However, the figure missed the consensus mark of $9,328.5 million. Consolidated EBITDA for the quarter more than doubled year over year to $1,585 million.

Their last bankruptcy in 2009 coincided with the last major oil price spike, and high debt loads. FWIW, FAST Graphs gives a debt ratio of 58%, and their S&P Credit Rating is BBB- (just one step above junk). The last time I dabbled in FCX, I have fond memories of buying in around $35, as all the articles were glowing and predicting a share price rally to $70 or more, and continuing dividend increases, then watching the share price crater to the single-digit to teens for five years, while the dividend got eliminated.

The boom-bust cycle of companies like LYB is familiar to anyone who has spent any appreciable period of time living and working in Houston. LinkedIn Profiles for employees of refining/plastics companies typically have interruptions that coincide with crude oil spikes, and then when crude craters, everyone working for the E&P companies gets fired as they go under or batten down the hatches.

Down years for crude oil were great in Houston if you weren't in the industry or looking to sell your home. You could typically successfully challenge your appraisal value for property taxes, as property values/comps there were more strongly correlated to what the price of oil was doing than the housing market nationally.

Edited to add - also, great value on repossessed used trucks within about a year after crude went through one of its peak-to-trough phases.

(06-16-2021, 09:45 AM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ]Added some HD and SHW

What's with all the pant shortage. The SHW stores in my area are temp closed because they have no inventory on paint. Same issue at HD lol

Sounds localized but I haven't worked for about 4 days.  Our HD Covid paint boom ended some time ago but the local painters seem busy enough and already booked for this outdoor season.

[quote pid='26788' dateline='1623859546']

(06-16-2021, 10:55 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 10:45 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 10:29 AM)brought divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]New position in LYB

Fits my theme. Nice 4% dividend and PE under 20

LYB is in a strange spot right now, enjoying the increased pricing for its olefin/polyolefin products that make up more than half its revenues (brought on by global re-opening and supply chain disruptions), but is also pressured by the rapidly increasing costs of its input (crude oil), and may be facing long term pressure for its major revenue source, as many governments around the world seek to reduce the amount of plastic packaging/pollution. 

Its average P/E ratio over 10 years is 9.85. So on a TTM basis it is 56% above its average P/E, and using FAST Graphs' blended P/E of 11 (incorporates future earnings estimates), it is 11.6% above its average P/E.

Prior to listing under its current ticker and raising its dividend for 11 consecutive years, Lyondell declared bankruptcy and wiped out all of its shareholders. It operates in an extremely low-margin business that can easily be disrupted by spikes in the price of crude, competitive pressure from foreign entities not subject to equivalent environmental/workplace regulations, and any substantial change to demand for its products. Bought some shares in the $60-70 range last year, and sold a bit over $100 a few months back. IME, companies like this always seem to crater right after releasing glowing quarterly reports about record profits and profit expectations (got burned by AA and FCX this way years back). Commodities and basic materials are rough.

 You can throw all that out. They got hurt pre-pandemic and their plastic material business in on fire. They are just at the beginning.  Bankruptcy in 2009 was a long time ago. There are 100's of same like companies that went through that and are trading at new highs. Just because they had issues in the past doesn't mean the future isn't bright. 

There total debt right now is 0.23%. Very low. So the probably of them going bankrupt again is very unlikely. In fact CAT carries a higher debt and bankrupt probability at 39%


LYB posted profits of $1,070 million or $3.18 per share in first-quarter 2021, up from $144 million or 42 cents in the year-ago quarter. Earnings per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65.
Revenues increased 21.2% year over year to $9,082 million in the reported quarter. However, the figure missed the consensus mark of $9,328.5 million. Consolidated EBITDA for the quarter more than doubled year over year to $1,585 million.

Their last bankruptcy in 2009 coincided with the last major oil price spike, and high debt loads. FWIW, FAST Graphs gives a debt ratio of 58%, and their S&P Credit Rating is BBB- (just one step above junk). The last time I dabbled in FCX, I have fond memories of buying in around $35, as all the articles were glowing and predicting a share price rally to $70 or more, and continuing dividend increases, then watching the share price crater to the single-digit to teens for five years, while the dividend got eliminated.

The boom-bust cycle of companies like LYB is familiar to anyone who has spent any appreciable period of time living and working in Houston. LinkedIn Profiles for employees of refining/plastics companies typically have interruptions that coincide with crude oil spikes, and then when crude craters, everyone working for the E&P companies gets fired as they go under or batten down the hatches.
[/quote]
Most people manage to lose money in commodity based stocks eventually.  You have to follow the commodity and not chase too close to the end of the cycle.  You have to know when to bail with a small loss and not get deer in the headlights hope mode.  They just aren't buy and hold stocks.  Averaging down is usually a bad call you make years too early.  You can wait 5+ years hoping to get back to even.  Not to mention they BK more often than about any other industry.  You really do need to buy them when they are hated but missing the bottom by years is easy.  Lumber is the one to watch now and learn.  Futures are down 1/3 from peak.  I don't think it is going to crash  but I was not about to hold my WY too long.  I caught the bottom and I did miss the top, but it quickly fell back to my sell price.

(06-16-2021, 11:48 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ][quote pid='26788' dateline='1623859546']

(06-16-2021, 10:55 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 10:45 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 10:29 AM)brought divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]New position in LYB

Fits my theme. Nice 4% dividend and PE under 20

LYB is in a strange spot right now, enjoying the increased pricing for its olefin/polyolefin products that make up more than half its revenues (brought on by global re-opening and supply chain disruptions), but is also pressured by the rapidly increasing costs of its input (crude oil), and may be facing long term pressure for its major revenue source, as many governments around the world seek to reduce the amount of plastic packaging/pollution. 

Its average P/E ratio over 10 years is 9.85. So on a TTM basis it is 56% above its average P/E, and using FAST Graphs' blended P/E of 11 (incorporates future earnings estimates), it is 11.6% above its average P/E.

Prior to listing under its current ticker and raising its dividend for 11 consecutive years, Lyondell declared bankruptcy and wiped out all of its shareholders. It operates in an extremely low-margin business that can easily be disrupted by spikes in the price of crude, competitive pressure from foreign entities not subject to equivalent environmental/workplace regulations, and any substantial change to demand for its products. Bought some shares in the $60-70 range last year, and sold a bit over $100 a few months back. IME, companies like this always seem to crater right after releasing glowing quarterly reports about record profits and profit expectations (got burned by AA and FCX this way years back). Commodities and basic materials are rough.

 You can throw all that out. They got hurt pre-pandemic and their plastic material business in on fire. They are just at the beginning.  Bankruptcy in 2009 was a long time ago. There are 100's of same like companies that went through that and are trading at new highs. Just because they had issues in the past doesn't mean the future isn't bright. 

There total debt right now is 0.23%. Very low. So the probably of them going bankrupt again is very unlikely. In fact CAT carries a higher debt and bankrupt probability at 39%


LYB posted profits of $1,070 million or $3.18 per share in first-quarter 2021, up from $144 million or 42 cents in the year-ago quarter. Earnings per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65.
Revenues increased 21.2% year over year to $9,082 million in the reported quarter. However, the figure missed the consensus mark of $9,328.5 million. Consolidated EBITDA for the quarter more than doubled year over year to $1,585 million.

Their last bankruptcy in 2009 coincided with the last major oil price spike, and high debt loads. FWIW, FAST Graphs gives a debt ratio of 58%, and their S&P Credit Rating is BBB- (just one step above junk). The last time I dabbled in FCX, I have fond memories of buying in around $35, as all the articles were glowing and predicting a share price rally to $70 or more, and continuing dividend increases, then watching the share price crater to the single-digit to teens for five years, while the dividend got eliminated.

The boom-bust cycle of companies like LYB is familiar to anyone who has spent any appreciable period of time living and working in Houston. LinkedIn Profiles for employees of refining/plastics companies typically have interruptions that coincide with crude oil spikes, and then when crude craters, everyone working for the E&P companies gets fired as they go under or batten down the hatches.

Most people manage to lose money in commodity based stocks eventually.  You have to follow the commodity and not chase too close to the end of the cycle.  You have to know when to bail with a small loss and not get deer in the headlights hope mode.  They just aren't buy and hold stocks.  Averaging down is usually a bad call you make years too early.  You can wait 5+ years hoping to get back to even.  Not to mention they BK more often than about any other industry.  You really do need to buy them when they are hated but missing the bottom by years is easy.  Lumber is the one to watch now and learn.  Futures are down 1/3 from peak.  I don't think it is going to crash  but I was not about to hold my WY too long.  I caught the bottom and I did miss the top, but it quickly fell back to my sell price.
[/quote]

Maybe I should buy VSTO and believe all the hype that its going to continue to run after going from $11 to $45 after being a dumpster stock for so long. Yeah lets do that 

I wont have to wait 5 years to break even. I have no doubt this will be a $130 stock. LYB is a good position to continue strong earnings as economy recovers.  

You said the same when we bought IBM. Its going no where and you wont make any money and will sell in a week. Hmmm looks like I am. $113 TO $148 

Your like Cramer. Do the opposite of what Fenders says and you will beat the market 

Still undefeated in anything VSTO so better pick a MUCH better example.
...........................
I am tempted to close some solar options like RUN from yesterday. ENPH, SEDG. They are about the only thing I play with that is dicey right now. Sure are fun.

First you shouldn't listen to anyone's advise on the boards and or any forum. You have to buy stocks based on your own merits and research.

If I took peoples advise I would have been bankrupt by now lol. I don't know how many times people told me I was in the wrong stocks and should sell. That worked out great by not reacting because someone said so

What happened in the past doesn't mean it will have the same future or pattern.

Lets see oil is dead, retail is dead. Hmm wrong. All those stocks are hitting new highs lol

I bought VSTO and gained 23 points until I sold it last week at $45. It will crash again. DKS is another example of a company left for dead that has exceeded all expectations. But both those stocks have already had a big run and the questions is... How much better can the story get from here? There is no way they can keep that growth rate up. Not saying they will crash today but the best is behind them. And that's my opinion. lol. That's the case with a lot of names.

LYB looks interesting here. They raised the dividend and guidance now 3 straight quarters. With a forward PE of 14 and growth rate of 30 it sure looks undervalued here. But what do I know. I do own, but at much lower levels. Same with DOW, CAT, DE and others. How much further can they run?? who knows. I do know they are undervalued when you compare them to tech and other sectors.

(06-16-2021, 11:48 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ][quote pid='26788' dateline='1623859546']

(06-16-2021, 10:55 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 10:45 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]

(06-16-2021, 10:29 AM)brought divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]New position in LYB

Fits my theme. Nice 4% dividend and PE under 20

LYB is in a strange spot right now, enjoying the increased pricing for its olefin/polyolefin products that make up more than half its revenues (brought on by global re-opening and supply chain disruptions), but is also pressured by the rapidly increasing costs of its input (crude oil), and may be facing long term pressure for its major revenue source, as many governments around the world seek to reduce the amount of plastic packaging/pollution. 

Its average P/E ratio over 10 years is 9.85. So on a TTM basis it is 56% above its average P/E, and using FAST Graphs' blended P/E of 11 (incorporates future earnings estimates), it is 11.6% above its average P/E.

Prior to listing under its current ticker and raising its dividend for 11 consecutive years, Lyondell declared bankruptcy and wiped out all of its shareholders. It operates in an extremely low-margin business that can easily be disrupted by spikes in the price of crude, competitive pressure from foreign entities not subject to equivalent environmental/workplace regulations, and any substantial change to demand for its products. Bought some shares in the $60-70 range last year, and sold a bit over $100 a few months back. IME, companies like this always seem to crater right after releasing glowing quarterly reports about record profits and profit expectations (got burned by AA and FCX this way years back). Commodities and basic materials are rough.

 You can throw all that out. They got hurt pre-pandemic and their plastic material business in on fire. They are just at the beginning.  Bankruptcy in 2009 was a long time ago. There are 100's of same like companies that went through that and are trading at new highs. Just because they had issues in the past doesn't mean the future isn't bright. 

There total debt right now is 0.23%. Very low. So the probably of them going bankrupt again is very unlikely. In fact CAT carries a higher debt and bankrupt probability at 39%


LYB posted profits of $1,070 million or $3.18 per share in first-quarter 2021, up from $144 million or 42 cents in the year-ago quarter. Earnings per share topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65.
Revenues increased 21.2% year over year to $9,082 million in the reported quarter. However, the figure missed the consensus mark of $9,328.5 million. Consolidated EBITDA for the quarter more than doubled year over year to $1,585 million.

Their last bankruptcy in 2009 coincided with the last major oil price spike, and high debt loads. FWIW, FAST Graphs gives a debt ratio of 58%, and their S&P Credit Rating is BBB- (just one step above junk). The last time I dabbled in FCX, I have fond memories of buying in around $35, as all the articles were glowing and predicting a share price rally to $70 or more, and continuing dividend increases, then watching the share price crater to the single-digit to teens for five years, while the dividend got eliminated.

The boom-bust cycle of companies like LYB is familiar to anyone who has spent any appreciable period of time living and working in Houston. LinkedIn Profiles for employees of refining/plastics companies typically have interruptions that coincide with crude oil spikes, and then when crude craters, everyone working for the E&P companies gets fired as they go under or batten down the hatches.

Most people manage to lose money in commodity based stocks eventually.  You have to follow the commodity and not chase too close to the end of the cycle.  You have to know when to bail with a small loss and not get deer in the headlights hope mode.  They just aren't buy and hold stocks.  Averaging down is usually a bad call you make years too early.  You can wait 5+ years hoping to get back to even.  Not to mention they BK more often than about any other industry.  You really do need to buy them when they are hated but missing the bottom by years is easy.  Lumber is the one to watch now and learn.  Futures are down 1/3 from peak.  I don't think it is going to crash  but I was not about to hold my WY too long.  I caught the bottom and I did miss the top, but it quickly fell back to my sell price.
[/quote]

Commodities and basic materials are in my lowest circle of trust when it comes t predictable recurring revenues. They are the polar opposite of telcos and utes in that regard. Might as well consult the horoscopes as any quarterly earnings estimates