Dividend Growth Forum

Here's a free review on Cracker Barrel whether you wanted it or not. I used to own CBRL and was considering getting back in on the next dip. I took my wife and Aunt there last night. It's never been fine cuisine but we love southern style cooking and the folksy oldtime decor is enjoyable to us old folks. We dined there perhaps quarterly before pandemic. We would be biased in their favor. I noticed the menu prices had not risen much if at all. My wife ordered breakfast and it was fine. Evervthing I and my Aunt ordered was processed. That isn't news. Most all the moderate priced restaurants buy most of their entrees and sides off the SYSCO truck. It literally had the texture and taste of canned food from a discount grocery store. The freebie biscuits and corn muffins were missing unless you asked for them. I ordered chicken and they served me a bad version of a giant MCD chicken McNugget. Unfortunately it didn't taste as good as a McNugget. I thought I ordered a couple pieces of real chicken. I predict this cost cutting strategy is going to fail them. If they are going to try to serve fast food they better do it on a higher level. I won't be buying shares again until they crash and change their strategy.

Added five more shares of XOM with my pooled dividends, bringing it up to a full position.

I'm still thinking oil goes much higher this summer on the reopening boom.

The buy pushes my projected portfolio income over the $3,000 mark for the first time.

(05-05-2021, 08:47 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-05-2021, 08:04 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-05-2021, 07:18 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]The forum is small and this is our socializing thread.  Some days you are just going to have to put up with us arguing about macro economics and option tricks lol.

Haha, true. Right now my DGI stuff is mostly doing what I want and throwing off dividends. Didn't have much exposure to growth stuff, so have been building a portfolio of that lately. No harm in letting that run for 20 years and seeing if any turn out to be home runs while the boring DGI stuff slowly and steadily does its compounding thing. I have a hard time getting many DGI stocks to pass my value screens at the moment. Unless the reddit kids get deep into the psychedelics, a Ute like DUK isn't going to run 500% in a year, so buying it at a P/E of 19.6 (well above its 10yr average of 17.5) probably carries a fairly high risk of subpar returns. 

I buy stuff that is unloved, and usually start buying too early while it is still sliding. I could have waited to buy some of the tech stuff I bought recently, but had no way of knowing when I bought if it would slide further, or if the dip was just a blip like dozens of others over the past several years. 

Fed printer still seems to be running though, and someone told Yellen to hush and get on the Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr train late yesterday, so I think the gravy train to the markets will continue for the short term. I'd be shocked if there are any rate hikes before the midterms in 2022.

Agreed, there is just so much we can do with PG and JNJ on a daily basis.   I also come here for the differing viewpoints, some debate and comradery.  We know each other's temperment and we can disagree without blowing up the thread.  Not many other places on the internet where that is true.  I fully support your right to be wrong Otter.  Just kidding, I mostly agree with you.  I doubt rates are increased before 2023 unless inflation gets crazy which is not out of the question.  Back in the day a real FED Chief that wasn't scared of politicians would raise them a quarter point this summer just to get the market's attention.  There is a helluva lot more going on with regards to employment than a tiny change in interest rates.

The Fed isn't there to send a message to politicians. It only exists to work in tandem with the Treasury to promote full employment and shoot for a target rate of 2% annual inflation (which it has missed for over a decade). Right now, it is far more concerned with the full employment part of its mission than the inflation target. 

The Fed doesn't care if a bunch of investors think the market is overpriced. It knows what interest rates can be borne by the economy with debt levels where they are and the money supply where it is. It also serves a national security function. Crashing the markets and destabilizing the economy and ability of the government to function by raising rates just to prove an ideological point isn't part of its mission. This function of the Fed doesn't get talked about a lot publicly, because it reveals the man behind the curtain and shatters the illusion of an independent central bank, which has never been a thing. The central bank has always served the interests of the U.S. Government, which includes propping up the Petrodollar as a reserve currency so that we can enjoy outsized economic gains compared to other countries, when compared to our actual GDP growth figures.

Our allies in Europe and the ECB, and the Bank of Japan go along with this, because we invest a staggeringly huge amount of the surplus money in a military that protects their economic interests as well, by either securing their defense or undermining competitors like China and Russia when they try to do anything that would undermine the existing system. 

A growing economy is part of national security. No one wants to score an own goal. No one wants a revolutionary change or shock to the system, which becomes a much bigger risk if the current system fails. Revolutions suck. Stock indices may fluctuate, and that is fine, but it's not like rates are going to just go up. The Fed is sending very clear signals that debt will be dealt with through inflation until inflation becomes a bigger problem than stimulating growth. 

1929 occurred in a different world. There was a Gold standard, laissez faire was the dominant economic ideology, the U.S. was an isolationist country that had retreated hard from Woodrow Wilson's League of Nations and didn't even want to maintain a meaningful standing army, and Britain had an empire and was running the global economy. I'm not saying the Fed can't screw this up for different reasons, but it won't be for lack of stimulus. If what happened in March/April 2020 didn't convince you that the Fed will do literally anything, including promising to buy the entire junk bond market if necessary to keep the carousel spinning, I'm not sure what will. 

If the wheels come off and everything collapses like some commenters on Seeking Alpha seem to fervently hope for, none of your investments will matter. A massive shake-up in the global balance of economic power that disadvantages the U.S. is not going to work in your favor, even if you have bars of gold laying around.

Sold a few ETF's and bond funds I had and went on a spending spree this morning lol

TXN, WBA, ETSY, TDOC, ENPH, BMY, MO, CVX, VGT, AVGO, NOW and TD

Still have 35% of proceeds to spend later. Hope I can hold onto for the day and not get the urge lol

(02-25-2021, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2021, 10:00 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]Bought some LDOS. Between the earnings miss and short report I haven’t seen it this low in a while. So I said why not lol. You in on this one too Fenders ?

I haven't researched it.  Hadn't heard of it until you and Otter were discussing it last week.  I am trying to not add too many more new names.  We'll see how long that lasts. 

What I need is for tech to get hammered for real again, but this market is resilient.

Very small trades this morning.  Added a few shares to DG-ARKF  Sold a few SLV puts.

(05-05-2021, 09:24 AM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]Added five more shares of XOM with my pooled dividends, bringing it up to a full position.

I'm still thinking oil goes much higher this summer on the reopening boom.

The buy pushes my projected portfolio income over the $3,000 mark for the first time.

$3000, awesome!  Given that your "full position" mark is $2000, your portfolio can now generate 1.5 positions on its own annually without your putting new money in.

XOM is one of the bigger high dividend payers I don't have.

(05-05-2021, 09:48 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]Sold a few ETF's and bond funds I had and went on a spending spree this morning lol

TXN, WBA, ETSY, TDOC, ENPH, BMY, MO, CVX, VGT, AVGO, NOW and TD

Still have 35% of proceeds to spend later. Hope I can hold onto for the day and not get the urge lol

Your mood swings are more frequent than a than a bad brokerage house analyst.    

I do like some of those buys though.

(05-05-2021, 09:24 AM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]Added five more shares of XOM with my pooled dividends, bringing it up to a full position.

I'm still thinking oil goes much higher this summer on the reopening boom.

The buy pushes my projected portfolio income over the $3,000 mark for the first time.

I think it will too.  The quota cheating will start then IMO (to include US producers), but it will run up in the meantime.  It's been quietly creeping higher for the past week.

(05-05-2021, 10:05 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: [ -> ][quote pid='25869' dateline='1620224661']
Added five more shares of XOM with my pooled dividends, bringing it up to a full position.

I'm still thinking oil goes much higher this summer on the reopening boom.

The buy pushes my projected portfolio income over the $3,000 mark for the first time.

$3000, awesome!  Given that your "full position" mark is $2000, your portfolio can now generate 1.5 positions on its own annually without your putting new money in.

XOM is one of the bigger high dividend payers I don't have.
[/quote]

Yeah, it's pretty awesome. Can really start to tell the dividend snowball is growing faster and faster. Being able to add to my stocks every month or so with pooled dividends is great. It's nice being able to time buys with ex-div dates and build out my smaller positions while not messing with the rest of my bigger holdings.

(05-05-2021, 09:24 AM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]Added five more shares of XOM with my pooled dividends, bringing it up to a full position.

I'm still thinking oil goes much higher this summer on the reopening boom.

The buy pushes my projected portfolio income over the $3,000 mark for the first time.

Congrats Eric. I still have a lot of XOM in my port. My PSXP got called away but I still own a bunch oil.

XOM, OXY, DCP, WES, ET, XLE ... and some small positions in a couple more. In that space.

Closed an oxy leap call for 20% profit on the runup today. Market is choppy.

I'm glad you guys talked me into oil this winter. I mostly just sold puts but I made some cash to buy long shares with lately.

Now please hold my beer VBIN whilst I try to roll a couple ENPH puts this morning. Please ENPH don't run in the middle of the trade lol. That happened to me on PFE earlier today. My cutesy one week ENPH put roll isn't going to work nearly as well this time. I'll probably only be able to drop the strike a couple bucks but I will dance my way out. I don't want to give back my profits.

(02-25-2021, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2021, 10:00 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]Bought some LDOS. Between the earnings miss and short report I haven’t seen it this low in a while. So I said why not lol. You in on this one too Fenders ?

I haven't researched it.  Hadn't heard of it until you and Otter were discussing it last week.  I am trying to not add too many more new names.  We'll see how long that lasts. 

What I need is for tech to get hammered for real again, but this market is resilient.

Very small trades this morning.  Added a few shares to DG-ARKF  Sold a few SLV puts.

(05-05-2021, 10:21 AM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-05-2021, 10:05 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: [ -> ]$3000, awesome!  Given that your "full position" mark is $2000, your portfolio can now generate 1.5 positions on its own annually without your putting new money in.

XOM is one of the bigger high dividend payers I don't have.

Yeah, it's pretty awesome. Can really start to tell the dividend snowball is growing faster and faster. Being able to add to my stocks every month or so with pooled dividends is great. It's nice being able to time buys with ex-div dates and build out my smaller positions while not messing with the rest of my bigger holdings.

I had fun with the pooled dividend purchases too in April.  Now I have to send the dividends over to checking to replenish savings, since selling company stock anytime soon doesn't seem to be an option.  I'm finding extracting money from my brokerage account psychologically difficult

Wow PTON getting smoked today. They will go out of business in the next several years. This news is bad and will be hard to come back from. They lost all credibility! Customers will be canceling subscriptions. And lets not forget its a big holding of Cathie woods lol. She just bought 150k shares on 4/21

Wish I kept my puts lol

This is indeed a crazy market. Stocks you never saw hitting 52 week highs lol

AA, BAC, CROX, PVH, RUTH, UAA just to name a few.

Restaurant stocks are at near highs. What a run from the lows. Glad I bought TXRH at $46