Dividend Growth Forum

Sold out 1/3 ABBV. Added a lot of MO friday

More MO just now. I'm either going to be right in a big way or wrong in a big way...

(09-23-2019, 02:23 PM)Kerim Wrote: [ -> ]More MO just now. I'm either going to be right in a big way or wrong in a big way...

I think most of us here are in deep enough now.  I doubled down about a week early.  I think it will do OK from here.  Whether it is a table pounding buy and we are all smiling in a year or two remains to be seen.  Good thing JUUL is not a publically traded company.  That would be a bloodbath right now.   FDA is going to put them through the wringer and it's not ending anytime soon.  Whether they actually did anything much wrong or not is irrelevant for now.

(09-23-2019, 03:38 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-23-2019, 02:23 PM)Kerim Wrote: [ -> ]More MO just now. I'm either going to be right in a big way or wrong in a big way...

I think most of us here are in deep enough now.  I doubled down about a week early.  I think it will do OK from here.  Whether it is a table pounding buy and we are all smiling in a year or two remains to be seen.  Good thing JUUL is not a publically traded company.  That would be a bloodbath right now.   FDA is going to put them through the wringer and it's not ending anytime soon.  Whether they actually did anything much wrong or not is irrelevant for now.

Same, more than doubled

(09-23-2019, 04:08 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-23-2019, 03:38 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-23-2019, 02:23 PM)Kerim Wrote: [ -> ]More MO just now. I'm either going to be right in a big way or wrong in a big way...

I think most of us here are in deep enough now.  I doubled down about a week early.  I think it will do OK from here.  Whether it is a table pounding buy and we are all smiling in a year or two remains to be seen.  Good thing JUUL is not a publically traded company.  That would be a bloodbath right now.   FDA is going to put them through the wringer and it's not ending anytime soon.  Whether they actually did anything much wrong or not is irrelevant for now.

Same, more than doubled

If it drops into the 30s, I'm planning to buy another big pile. That would put me overweight, but still it would be a lower percentage of my portfolio that it has been in the past. Then I'll ride it out one way or another.

Agree with you about JUUL. But if there is any company on the planet that knows how to navigate this sort of regulatory / litigation risk, it is MO.

JUUL did nothing wrong. The issue is copycat pods being made. The truth will come out soon Enough. MO will be back to $50 at some point.

More truth!! JUUL Pods are tamper resistant.

I have used them. The only way to get a homebrew substance into a Juul device is to buy a Juul pod not made by Juul, and snap it into a Juul device.

This is why SCC won’t be able to prove JUUL did anything wrong. MO is one of the better buys in the market right now, despite what the critics say! Like I said the truth will come out.

(09-23-2019, 05:41 PM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ]JUUL did nothing wrong. The issue is copycat pods being made. The truth will come out soon Enough. MO will be back to $50 at some point.

The issue is also it's not too hard to make a case JUUL knew full well they were marketing to minors.  They might as well have put Pokemon cards and free toys in the package.  Of course I am exaggerating, but that is how this is gonna get spun.  We can pretend that's not possibly true, but it won't fly with the FDA, Congress, or the US President.  It is what it is, they lost all their flavors, their advertising will be re-vamped forever.  For the foreseeable future, they lost all of China, Wal-Mart, and more than likely some other large retailers.  

Anyone want to explain to me why that's not a REAL big deal for more than a few weeks?  Frankly that would require some delusional thinking IMO.  I'm on your side Guru.   I just bought 200 more shares of MO and I've been flipping PM options since this blew up. Actually made money on the options because I only do conservative derivatives.  If by some miracle MO runs soon I'll be lightening up a bit.  The yield is 8% for a reason. Not sure if I'll buy more if we hit the 30's.

(09-23-2019, 08:09 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone want to explain to me why that's not a REAL big deal for more than a few weeks? 

I absolutely agree that it will be a quagmire for a very long time. But at these prices, I think MO could write off the entire JUUL investment and still be fine. Sure, it would hurt, but $41 per share of MO seems to have a complete failure of JUUL, a disastrous merger attempt, and accelerating decline in smoking rates all baked in already.

(09-23-2019, 08:09 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-23-2019, 05:41 PM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ]JUUL did nothing wrong. The issue is copycat pods being made. The truth will come out soon Enough. MO will be back to $50 at some point.

The issue is also it's not too hard to make a case JUUL knew full well they were marketing to minors.  They might as well have put Pokemon cards and free toys in the package.  Of course I am exaggerating, but that is how this is gonna get spun.  We can pretend that's not possibly true, but it won't fly with the FDA, Congress, or the US President.  It is what it is, they lost all their flavors, their advertising will be re-vamped forever.  For the foreseeable future, they lost all of China, Wal-Mart, and more than likely some other large retailers.  

Anyone want to explain to me why that's not a REAL big deal for more than a few weeks?  Frankly that would require some delusional thinking IMO.  I'm on your side Guru.   I just bought 200 more shares of MO and I've been flipping PM options since this blew up. Actually made money on the options because I only do conservative derivatives.  If by some miracle MO runs soon I'll be lightening up a bit.  The yield is 8% for a reason. Not sure if I'll buy more if we hit the 30's.

WalMart never stocked JUUL so there's that. There are NO issues with JUUL. Once the dust settles and vaping will become much more regulated . Who benefits from the increased regs? The big boys. This is back up the truck opportunity.

Maybe we should have separate MO thread? The large majority of the posts here recently are discussing MO, which is not the subject of this thread but certainly something we enjoy talking about.

Added some WTR and TD.to yesterday.
While WTR is definitely overvalued but that is nothing new. This is not a great time to be adding but I wanted some more and I'm pretty sure that in 30 years I'll be laughing.

Bought TEVA today and sold a bunch of eBay last week as well.