Dividend Growth Forum

Full Version: What Did You Buy Today?
You're currently viewing a stripped down version of our content. View the full version with proper formatting.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767
(04-08-2021, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-07-2021, 03:07 PM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-07-2021, 02:58 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: [ -> ]Are we looking at the same RA?  It traded in the low 20s basically until it crashed and burned in March 2020, dropping to 13, and it has now climbed back up to 21.  Also they haven't cut their dividend recently.

That's my point on RA. Its back to where it was and toped out at $22 which is where it is now. The 5 year high is $22 and with these monthly dividend stocks when they run up this much they tend to correct and give you better buying opportunities.
I agree with you on this.  The risk reward is out of balance at the extreme ends of trading range.  It may well be over a year from now, but US finances have never been here before.  Old people hold these high yielders and they have a nervous trigger finger on the sell side at the first sign of trouble.  Something will trigger a dip.  The yields are high because their is always some financial engineering going on.  I get why people are attracted to the monthly payout but a 4% yielding blue chip with a decent chance of a 5% capital appreciation is where the bulk of my income bets will be placed.  The high yielders can pay off very nicely if you know when to trim or add shares.  I'm out for now.  The upside is just not there.

The 10yr/1yr yield curve has been higher than it is now for most of the past decade, yet STWD is trading near ATH. You'd think 10yrs had popped to 3% yield with 1yr at 0 based on the recent price action.
(04-08-2021, 10:19 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-08-2021, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-07-2021, 03:07 PM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-07-2021, 02:58 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: [ -> ]Are we looking at the same RA?  It traded in the low 20s basically until it crashed and burned in March 2020, dropping to 13, and it has now climbed back up to 21.  Also they haven't cut their dividend recently.

That's my point on RA. Its back to where it was and toped out at $22 which is where it is now. The 5 year high is $22 and with these monthly dividend stocks when they run up this much they tend to correct and give you better buying opportunities.
I agree with you on this.  The risk reward is out of balance at the extreme ends of trading range.  It may well be over a year from now, but US finances have never been here before.  Old people hold these high yielders and they have a nervous trigger finger on the sell side at the first sign of trouble.  Something will trigger a dip.  The yields are high because their is always some financial engineering going on.  I get why people are attracted to the monthly payout but a 4% yielding blue chip with a decent chance of a 5% capital appreciation is where the bulk of my income bets will be placed.  The high yielders can pay off very nicely if you know when to trim or add shares.  I'm out for now.  The upside is just not there.

The 10yr/1yr yield curve has been higher than it is now for most of the past decade, yet STWD is trading near ATH. You'd think 10yrs had popped to 3% yield with 1yr at 0 based on the recent price action.
The level of deficit spending is going to get more insane.  We'll see if they can soft land this thing or not when the time comes.  I am not scared yet, but this will be tricky at some point.  I sold my STWD a few weeks ago. It was a good trade.  Thanks.
(04-08-2021, 10:26 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-08-2021, 10:19 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-08-2021, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-07-2021, 03:07 PM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-07-2021, 02:58 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: [ -> ]Are we looking at the same RA?  It traded in the low 20s basically until it crashed and burned in March 2020, dropping to 13, and it has now climbed back up to 21.  Also they haven't cut their dividend recently.

That's my point on RA. Its back to where it was and toped out at $22 which is where it is now. The 5 year high is $22 and with these monthly dividend stocks when they run up this much they tend to correct and give you better buying opportunities.
I agree with you on this.  The risk reward is out of balance at the extreme ends of trading range.  It may well be over a year from now, but US finances have never been here before.  Old people hold these high yielders and they have a nervous trigger finger on the sell side at the first sign of trouble.  Something will trigger a dip.  The yields are high because their is always some financial engineering going on.  I get why people are attracted to the monthly payout but a 4% yielding blue chip with a decent chance of a 5% capital appreciation is where the bulk of my income bets will be placed.  The high yielders can pay off very nicely if you know when to trim or add shares.  I'm out for now.  The upside is just not there.

The 10yr/1yr yield curve has been higher than it is now for most of the past decade, yet STWD is trading near ATH. You'd think 10yrs had popped to 3% yield with 1yr at 0 based on the recent price action.
The level of deficit spending is going to get more insane.  We'll see if they can soft land this thing or not when the time comes.  I am not scared yet, but this will be tricky at some point.  I sold my STWD a few weeks ago. It was a good trade.  Thanks.

Mine got called away, and the position was way above strike when it happened. 

Fed will reinstate operation twist if the 10yrs get too high, as it risks the stability of the economy for the curve to get too steep. 

Other than near-term transitory inflation from the stimulus (which likely vanishes by the end of this year), I don't see anything in the long term economic picture that is substantially different from the decade+ bull market after 2008, where the Fed consistently had difficulty hitting its 2% annual inflation target. If the Fed announced today that it was halting its support for the bond market, everything would crash immediately in a deflationary spiral rivaling 2008.
Added OZK, AVGO and MO

Any thoughts on BMY and MRK ?
(04-08-2021, 10:33 AM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ]Added OZK, AVGO and MO

Any thoughts on BMY and MRK ?

Own them both and sell BMY puts literally every few weeks that expire worthless.  I think they are both very safe but who knows what finally wakes up the share price.  It's hard to imagine they don't have some upside.  I've grown impatient with MRK so that probably means you should be buying soon.
(04-08-2021, 10:32 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-08-2021, 10:26 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-08-2021, 10:19 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-08-2021, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-07-2021, 03:07 PM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ]That's my point on RA. Its back to where it was and toped out at $22 which is where it is now. The 5 year high is $22 and with these monthly dividend stocks when they run up this much they tend to correct and give you better buying opportunities.
I agree with you on this.  The risk reward is out of balance at the extreme ends of trading range.  It may well be over a year from now, but US finances have never been here before.  Old people hold these high yielders and they have a nervous trigger finger on the sell side at the first sign of trouble.  Something will trigger a dip.  The yields are high because their is always some financial engineering going on.  I get why people are attracted to the monthly payout but a 4% yielding blue chip with a decent chance of a 5% capital appreciation is where the bulk of my income bets will be placed.  The high yielders can pay off very nicely if you know when to trim or add shares.  I'm out for now.  The upside is just not there.

The 10yr/1yr yield curve has been higher than it is now for most of the past decade, yet STWD is trading near ATH. You'd think 10yrs had popped to 3% yield with 1yr at 0 based on the recent price action.
The level of deficit spending is going to get more insane.  We'll see if they can soft land this thing or not when the time comes.  I am not scared yet, but this will be tricky at some point.  I sold my STWD a few weeks ago. It was a good trade.  Thanks.

Mine got called away, and the position was way above strike when it happened. 

Fed will reinstate operation twist if the 10yrs get too high, as it risks the stability of the economy for the curve to get too steep. 

Other than near-term transitory inflation from the stimulus (which likely vanishes by the end of this year), I don't see anything in the long term economic picture that is substantially different from the decade+ bull market after 2008, where the Fed consistently had difficulty hitting its 2% annual inflation target. If the Fed announced today that it was halting its support for the bond market, everything would crash immediately in a deflationary spiral rivaling 2008.
Have we ever deficit spent $5T in a year?  That seems like where we are possibly headed, or something in that neighborhood.  I don't remember the US doing that before.
Sold PLTR CC expiring 4 weeks out.
(04-08-2021, 10:33 AM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ]Added OZK, AVGO and MO

Any thoughts on BMY and MRK ?
I added BMY yesterday, have puts sold on both of them. Both are undervalued with margin of safety. Some big names have added MRK in their ports in past months.
(04-08-2021, 09:42 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]Added to ABNB
Don't they have 120 days lock up expiration coming up?
(04-08-2021, 02:15 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-08-2021, 09:42 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]Added to ABNB
Don't they have 120 days lock up expiration coming up?

Yes, and it may get cheaper, or may not.

I haven't historically had a lot of growthy picks in my portfolio, and have devoted more attention to that the past several months. Plan to hold 10+ years, so I expect price fluctuations in the first year of the holding to be largely irrelevant by the time I start drawing the positions down. Still gotta build out the positions when I have cash to do so, and ABNB was on the list today.
(04-08-2021, 01:19 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-08-2021, 10:32 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-08-2021, 10:26 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-08-2021, 10:19 AM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]
(04-08-2021, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with you on this.  The risk reward is out of balance at the extreme ends of trading range.  It may well be over a year from now, but US finances have never been here before.  Old people hold these high yielders and they have a nervous trigger finger on the sell side at the first sign of trouble.  Something will trigger a dip.  The yields are high because their is always some financial engineering going on.  I get why people are attracted to the monthly payout but a 4% yielding blue chip with a decent chance of a 5% capital appreciation is where the bulk of my income bets will be placed.  The high yielders can pay off very nicely if you know when to trim or add shares.  I'm out for now.  The upside is just not there.

The 10yr/1yr yield curve has been higher than it is now for most of the past decade, yet STWD is trading near ATH. You'd think 10yrs had popped to 3% yield with 1yr at 0 based on the recent price action.
The level of deficit spending is going to get more insane.  We'll see if they can soft land this thing or not when the time comes.  I am not scared yet, but this will be tricky at some point.  I sold my STWD a few weeks ago. It was a good trade.  Thanks.

Mine got called away, and the position was way above strike when it happened. 

Fed will reinstate operation twist if the 10yrs get too high, as it risks the stability of the economy for the curve to get too steep. 

Other than near-term transitory inflation from the stimulus (which likely vanishes by the end of this year), I don't see anything in the long term economic picture that is substantially different from the decade+ bull market after 2008, where the Fed consistently had difficulty hitting its 2% annual inflation target. If the Fed announced today that it was halting its support for the bond market, everything would crash immediately in a deflationary spiral rivaling 2008.
Have we ever deficit spent $5T in a year?  That seems like where we are possibly headed, or something in that neighborhood.  I don't remember the US doing that before.

As a percentage of GDP, we ran up larger deficits during WWII

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S

We are beyond where we were with 2008, but many economists argued that the stimulus in '08 was simply not large enough, and the relatively anemic recovery (especially with jobs) in the first part of the 2010s lends some support to that notion. 

Supposedly the proposed infrastructure bill is to be paid for by tax increases, so we will see how that shakes out in terms of the impact on the deficit or what, if anything, gets passed. From a deficit perspective though, infrastructure spending is commonly taught as one of the examples where it makes sense to issue treasuries, as the return on investment for infrastructure typically outweighs the cost of borrowing. It's the same reason companies issue bonds at historically low rates to fund investment in capital-intensive projects that are expected to boost earnings beyond the cost of borrowing.   

I'm fine with the deficit spending undertaken for Covid stimulus under both the Trump and Biden administrations. It was a black swan event where unprecedented numbers of people lost their jobs through no fault of their own, so extraordinary measures were necessary to stabilize the economy. Failure to do anything likely would have resulted in a deflationary spiral and great depression.

Still don't see any signs that inflation is a risk in the medium term. 

Long term, we are entering a period where the majority of Millenials enter their prime earning years, and generational transfers of wealth will occur on a large scale as the oldest Baby Boomers are reaching the end of their statistical life expectancy. That could certainly add some inflationary pressure to the economy over the next two decades that wasn't there for much of the past two decades. Suspect that will be more like the inflationary pressure that existed in the 1980s and 1990s, as the Baby Boomer generation hit the same stage in life (i.e., healthy inflation as economic activity grows). The economy really entered a lackluster phase (in terms of GDP growth) starting in the 2000s, as the oldest members of that generation began to retire and enter the draw-down phase of their economic lives.
tl;dr

I am optimistic that, in the long term, the charts will continue to go up and to the right.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767