Dividend Growth Forum

(03-18-2020, 05:14 PM)navyasw02 Wrote: [ -> ]What's up with O? I was about to pull the trigger, but luckily held off. I woke up to see it down big time.

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The market is systematically taking almost ever sector behind the woodshed for a flogging.  The reason is obvious for airlines, cruise ships, restaurants etc.  When a specific enough reason can't be found there is always the high probability of a recession and some individuals and businesses struggle to pay their bills.  It's a real threat and nothing is truly worth as much as it was last month. This happens in every bear market.  It's our job to assess when it's overdone and pick our entry.  Then close your eyes and ears and don't get scared into realizing a paper loss when you failed to accurately pick the bottom.  That's the hard part for many investors. 

JMHO but that's how it's always worked before.  I went long O today for the first time ever.

(03-18-2020, 05:57 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 05:14 PM)navyasw02 Wrote: [ -> ]What's up with O? I was about to pull the trigger, but luckily held off. I woke up to see it down big time.

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The market is systematically taking almost ever sector behind the woodshed for a flogging.  The reason is obvious for airlines, cruise ships, restaurants etc.  When a specific enough reason can't be found there is always the high probability of a recession and some individuals and businesses struggle to pay their bills.   It's a real threat and nothing is truly worth as much as it was last month.  This happens in every bear market.  It's our job to assess when it's overdone and pick our entry.  Then close your eyes and ears and don't get scared into realizing a paper loss when you failed to accurately pick the bottom.  That's the hard part for many investors. 

JMHO but that's how it's always worked before.  I went long O today for the first time ever.

I have different feeling on all this. To me the market as always over reacts. Sure we are tough times right now. But we were thriving before and will thrive again when this is all said and done. I remember in 09 when everyone panicked and said AAPL, MSFT and others were going bankrupt. Banks had to get bailed out. What happened 2-3 years later? They were all making new highs and were up 20x where they were when everyone panicked. I see the same thing happening here. Fear is a dangerous thing.  The time its all about the corona virus. We are playing if safe right now and closing businesses so we don't harm ourselves or others. Health is the #1 concern right now. Money is 2nd to health. The market has sold off due to concerns. And those concerns are valid. But lets get one thing straight. People were buying at all times just a month ago. Many complained were way over valued. Well now you get your chance to built a strong portfolio and put money to good use for the next 5-10 years. Take advantage of the opportunities. They don't come around too often. 

Its all a game with the shorts. And there winning right now. Lets them enjoy it. They deserve to win once in a while 

China is over this mess and people and business are back to normal. We were 3 months behind them when this all started. Eventually we will come back and stronger then ever. 

Anyway bought some WEN, O, DUK, MO, HAS, LMT, RTN, HRL, ABBV, DLTR and PG. Yes I went a little crazy today 

This came from someone who works at Texas Roadhouse....

Alright guys update after tonight and receiving some corporate emails. Really rough. We did $992 dollars in sales last night which means we probably operated at a loss with roughly 25 employees. I did receive a 100 dollar tip tonight which was pretty heartwarming for everyone at work. Our payroll is much smaller and we have adjusted hours to 12-8 for the next 30 days for safety reasons. Most other Texas Roadhouses did between $815-1690 in sales. It will be a rough quarter for sure so obviously be prepared for that. The system does work well however and we are staying very safe. I will update you guys more when I receive news about emergency payment plan and more numbers soon.

(03-16-2020, 11:55 AM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]Used the proceeds from last week's sale of OXY to add to my CVX position this morning at $75.

You should have stayed in OXY. I cant believe CVX lost $15 dollars today and is now at $55. When does the nightmare end 

Today was my worst day ever. I had 8 stocks that were down more then $12 today...

Wish I put everything in UVXY   up from $5 to $110 lol

#BREAKING: BEIJING (AP) -- China's health ministry says virus epicenter of Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province have reported no new cases.

Great news. Now let’s hope we get here soon!!

(03-18-2020, 05:07 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 04:52 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]Folks who have been buying restaurant brands, why no one is looking at QSR? I think buffet is invested and if things get worst cost effective fast food will do well.

We really need to summon Eric for a quick look at balance sheets for any restaurant we are considering.  (even if I sass him sometimes lol).  That is going to be critical to any restaurant's survival.  MCD, WEN etc can go drive thru only and pay the rent and utililities.  I am pretty deep in CBRL and will have a decent position in TXRH.  Large scale carryout may not be so viable for them.  I bet they get more efficient at it by next week though.

Everyone beware this is my idea of a speculative move.  My port is dominated by UTEs, insurance companies, defense and bluechip industrials.  I don't own tech or much anything shaky other than FUN.  This is a time for risk management.  Don't add more risk if you already have enough.  The index may drop another 25% for all I know.  It's my strong belief that if our top 10 national restaurant chains can't survive this, we have big trouble that will go far beyond cheeseburger joints.

QSR is loaded up with debt after the Burger King acquisition, and is also junk rated at BB.

We are in the midst of an unprecedented hit to the restaurant industry and the economy. If things turn around, companies like this might work out, but for me personally, I wouldn't be interested in anything with less than a BBB+ credit rating.

MCD, SBUX, SYY at "BBB+" and potentially DRI at "BBB" are enough risk for my tastes.

(03-18-2020, 08:53 PM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-16-2020, 11:55 AM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]Used the proceeds from last week's sale of OXY to add to my CVX position this morning at $75.

You should have stayed in OXY. I cant believe CVX lost $15 dollars today and is now at $55. When does the nightmare end 

OXY won't survive $25 oil.

CVX will.

(03-18-2020, 11:46 PM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 05:07 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 04:52 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]Folks who have been buying restaurant brands, why no one is looking at QSR? I think buffet is invested and if things get worst cost effective fast food will do well.

We really need to summon Eric for a quick look at balance sheets for any restaurant we are considering.  (even if I sass him sometimes lol).  That is going to be critical to any restaurant's survival.  MCD, WEN etc can go drive thru only and pay the rent and utililities.  I am pretty deep in CBRL and will have a decent position in TXRH.  Large scale carryout may not be so viable for them.  I bet they get more efficient at it by next week though.

Everyone beware this is my idea of a speculative move.  My port is dominated by UTEs, insurance companies, defense and bluechip industrials.  I don't own tech or much anything shaky other than FUN.  This is a time for risk management.  Don't add more risk if you already have enough.  The index may drop another 25% for all I know.  It's my strong belief that if our top 10 national restaurant chains can't survive this, we have big trouble that will go far beyond cheeseburger joints.

QSR is loaded up with debt after the Burger King acquisition, and is also junk rated at BB.

We are in the midst of an unprecedented hit to the restaurant industry and the economy. If things turn around, companies like this might work out, but for me personally, I wouldn't be interested in anything with less than a BBB+ credit rating.

MCD, SBUX, SYY at "BBB+" and potentially DRI at "BBB" are enough risk for my tastes.

This sounds reasonable, but I think you have to consider how fast that credit rating could change based on what the chain serves.  People are used to buying burgers and tacos via drive through.  I am buying TXRH because they have very little debt, but personally, I'm less inclined to drop $50 for a couple meals in a bag.  I'll likely be be waiting until they open the dining room.  Same for a lot of the other restaurants like Cracker Barrel, Olive Garden etc.  Fast food has a huge advantage here IMO.  This is why I think a 50-75% drop in share value is an over-reaction, and that is where we are are headed.  As Guru reminds us, the market always over-reacts.  We spend all our time here looking for those stocks, whether it's a macro or a company specific short-term crisis, or both.  Also, while these companies are not critical industries, I suspect any national chain is going to be able to access cheap financing to keep unemployment from Great Depression levels.  The details on the bill passed yesterday should be known soon.

(03-18-2020, 10:39 AM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]Anyone buying Emerson? Down more than 40%, div aristocrat

I did take a look at them. And they do seem to  be some level of recession proof, at least based on their performance in the years around the 2008 meltdown. 

Thing is, looking at the past 10 years, it's like their financials haven't changed at all.
It certainly looks like a pretty  safe bet at today's price, but now that everything is on sale I'm not sure if I want a company with really low growth numbers and yeah, they have a dividend aristocrat status but if it comes with 1% increases when the economy is going full steam then is that status worth much?

I'll keep my eye on it though, definitely looks both safe and cheap. (and the dividend is nice, but again 1% increases doesn't really do it for me)

FDo you all know that humans are no longer allowed on the trading floors? It’s all being done by computers.

Restaurants across the nation are predicted to loss about 26 billion in sales. I have lots of friends who were just laid off or let go in the industry at the airports.

The fast food industry will survive. They are the only ones people will trust. Drive up and pick up your food. Plus it’s cheap and you have value meals. You can go to MCD or WEN and spend less then $10 for an entire meal. SBUX will also do well. Everyone needs their coffee. Those other restaurants who don’t have a drive through will suffer.

No one is talking retail. They will also suffer in all this. Most have closed their doors. Sure you can buy on line but people aren’t buying anything right now with people out of work. ANZN, WMT, TGT, KR will do just fine. The rest not so much.

Companies like PG, PEP, CLX, CHD should be ok as well. Everyone needs toilet paper, cleaning supplies, snacks, soda, water ect.

Autos, airlines, rails, trucking, oil. Flights are canceled, capacity cut, the pumps will suffer since no one is driving.

Utilities and Gold are a good place to be as well.

Vaccine companies doing well. Other then GILD, JNJ, ABBV and ABT the rest of those micro caps are a gamble.

Cell phone carriers and tower companies good. No one can survive without cell phones lol

WBA and CVS should do ok based on people need prescriptions

Tech who knows. I just been avoiding it for now lol

Nothing is safe but at least we know which sectors will hold up better then others. Lots of buys in the market but too many to choose from. I’m not buying 25-30 stocks. I’m buying 5 names I really like and will add to those gradually. You buy too many your just asking for trouble in times like this lol

Divemenow- I was with you until the very last line. Owning only five stocks means I have huge positions. I'll stay diversified so unforeseen circumstances can't easily devastate 40% of my port. Not so long ago BA and XOM could have been two reasonable and safe picks. I wouldn't be happy if I had $100K in each right now. I am going to stick with my DGI plan and my index fund. It's supposed to pass the test of time. Going in and out of the market is great when it works. I know you've done well lately. I do own too may stocks right now though.

(03-18-2020, 11:50 PM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-18-2020, 08:53 PM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-16-2020, 11:55 AM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]Used the proceeds from last week's sale of OXY to add to my CVX position this morning at $75.

You should have stayed in OXY. I cant believe CVX lost $15 dollars today and is now at $55. When does the nightmare end 

OXY won't survive $25 oil.

CVX will.

OXY credit rating cut to junk at Moody's.

Moody's downgrades its rating on Occidental Petroleum's (NYSE:OXY) senior unsecured debt to Ba1 from Baa3, a week after the company cut its 2020 spending and production guidance and slashed its dividend.

The acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. continues to burden Occidental's balance sheet, "significantly compromising its financial flexibility to confront the collapse in oil prices," says Moody's VP Andrew Brooks.

"Projected asset sales required for debt reduction have slowed and face considerable headwinds in a challenged oil and natural gas price environment, leaving OXY with a significantly weakened credit profile whose prospects for near-term improvement are uncertain," Brooks says.

This likely is just the beginning of many credit rating downgrades to junk status in the oil and gas industry.

nibbled on MSFT, PSA, SPY