(01-04-2021, 01:32 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (01-04-2021, 01:02 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-04-2021, 12:55 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]Under the Dems take Georgia scenario, the legislative filibuster also remains in place (there aren't 50 votes to change it at the start of the new Senate term). So, absent reconciliation, which can't be used in a way that increases the deficit, nothing gets done without 60 votes. The Dems barely scraped together 60 votes to pass the Affordable Care Act in 2009, and only after removing contentious pieces of the House Bill, like a public option.
House majority is much narrower than it was in the last Congress, as well. No one on the House/Senate side is going to want to stick their neck out on anything contentious like Cap and Trade, financial services regulations, etc., when a single Senator (King, Manchin, Tester) can sink the bill, and nothing like that can get to 60 votes in the Senate. Pork (mainly via defense bills) will be the only item on the menu.
Assured gridlock and the market like that. Some of my REP friends actually cashed out of the market when it became apparent Biden won because a DEM Prez will surely cause a market crash. Yeah that's not been my experience the past 35 years or so. If you can't make money with either party in charge you better school yourself up on how this works.
Hopefully defense contractors like LMT keep getting taken to the woodshed. I'd like to add more shares. Only went up 400% during Obama's 8 year term.
Yeah this is political.  I am glad I went somewhat slow accumulating defense contractors. It works out in the end. The contracts are crazy long and the world isn't getting safer. Reality is this administration spiked defense spending to an obscene level if you are objective at all. It's not getting better soon but the PEs are just fine. I'll add a few share now but I am still adding slow.Â
 If I was truly bold I would sell a put. We aren't that low yet.  MIL Defense is a long game.
(01-04-2021, 01:42 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-04-2021, 01:32 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (01-04-2021, 01:02 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-04-2021, 12:55 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]Under the Dems take Georgia scenario, the legislative filibuster also remains in place (there aren't 50 votes to change it at the start of the new Senate term). So, absent reconciliation, which can't be used in a way that increases the deficit, nothing gets done without 60 votes. The Dems barely scraped together 60 votes to pass the Affordable Care Act in 2009, and only after removing contentious pieces of the House Bill, like a public option.
House majority is much narrower than it was in the last Congress, as well. No one on the House/Senate side is going to want to stick their neck out on anything contentious like Cap and Trade, financial services regulations, etc., when a single Senator (King, Manchin, Tester) can sink the bill, and nothing like that can get to 60 votes in the Senate. Pork (mainly via defense bills) will be the only item on the menu.
Assured gridlock and the market like that. Some of my REP friends actually cashed out of the market when it became apparent Biden won because a DEM Prez will surely cause a market crash. Yeah that's not been my experience the past 35 years or so. If you can't make money with either party in charge you better school yourself up on how this works.
Hopefully defense contractors like LMT keep getting taken to the woodshed. I'd like to add more shares. Only went up 400% during Obama's 8 year term.
Yeah this is political.  I am glad I went somewhat slow accumulating defense contractors. It works out in the end. The contracts are crazy long and the world isn't getting safer. Reality is this administration spiked defense spending to an obscene level if you are objective at all. It's not getting better soon but the PEs are just fine. I'll add a few share now but I am still adding slow.  If I was truly bold I would sell a put. We aren't that low yet.  MIL Defense is a long game.
From an economic standpoint, I view the U.S. military as a giant jobs and Keynesian stimulus program. The company has branch offices in all fifty states by design. No surprise that the Defense Authorization bill was the only veto override during Trump's term. Eisenhower nailed it in his farewell speech, but we now live in the economic reality of the military industrial complex he warned about. An easy way to guarantee an economic depression would be by cutting the defense budget by 20% across the board.
After a 34 year MIL career I am more than certain we could remain a dominant force with a 20% cut. But it is indeed a jobs program. So we buy low lol.
T is up 2% when spy is down 2%. Market always amazes me. Lol. Sold some T calls today.
Initiated a position in LMT.
Defense isn't going anywhere, but yeah if they want to give me an already cheap-ish looking stock for another 3% discount then ok!
Busy day today. I sold quite a few puts near the market low of the day. BMY 59, NEE 72.50, CVS 67, DG 205, HD 255, RTX 65 Covered calls GOLD 25.50, ALE 65. All expire in the next 2-4 weeks.
Defense stocks back on the radar. I am already pretty fat but need to nibble a little down here.
oil today. bought more OXY. If Dems winning Georgia, what happens to oil?lol
(01-05-2021, 12:09 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]oil today. bought more OXY. If Dems winning Georgia, what happens to oil?lol
What could possibly go wrong?  Is it OK that I picture you wearing an Exxon-Mobil hat while trading oil stocks? Â
Seriously though I think the REPs will win one seat. The RINOS are about to get powerful because if you lose only one you aren't passing or blocking anything. We'll see how my prediction plays out. I have this feeling we won't know until WED or THU. Prepare to play the volatility. Â
Sold a MSFT put at 207.50. Closed an APD put so now I have move cash.  Working on a few more put sells. Feeling like I need a little dry powder for the next few days. Should be a few opportunities before the market runs again.
(01-05-2021, 12:30 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-05-2021, 12:09 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]oil today. bought more OXY. If Dems winning Georgia, what happens to oil?lol
What could possibly go wrong?  Is it OK that I picture you wearing an Exxon-Mobil hat while trading oil stocks? Â
Seriously though I think the REPs will win one seat. The RINOS are about to get powerful because if you lose only one you aren't passing or blocking anything. We'll see how my prediction plays out. I have this feeling we won't know until WED or THU. Prepare to play the volatility. Â
Sold a MSFT put at 207.50. Closed an APD put so now I have move cash.  Working on a few more put sells. Feeling like I need a little dry powder for the next few days. Should be a few opportunities before the market runs again.
I haven't touched xom in a while, already too heavy in that. I am bulish oil next few years. I feel it's just like banks when no one wanted to touch them in 2008 bofa was selling for $5.
That was a couple months ago but they've almost surely bottomed some time ago. Demand will surely be better in just a few months. Supply, who knows? My pipeline is running lately.
I will be reshuffling my portfolio today. The for cannabis and the solar stocks. Just hope they don’t run too far lol. Thanks Georgia lol