Dividend Growth Forum

(11-16-2018, 10:13 AM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-15-2018, 09:47 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]Added XOM. Looking forward to add NVDA tomorrow wit it stays below $170

You've got your wish. NVDA is at $167 right now!

I decided to wait. Sentiment seemed to be negative which will provide better opportunity.

(11-19-2018, 10:21 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-16-2018, 10:13 AM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-15-2018, 09:47 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]Added XOM. Looking forward to add NVDA tomorrow wit it stays below $170

You've got your wish. NVDA is at $167 right now!

I decided to wait. Sentiment seemed to be negative which will provide better opportunity.

Good for you.  Barring huge macro news, it's become apparent many of these high fliers will get no less than a 40% haircut in the near future.  I own a few on that potential list.

As i said a few weeks back. Get out of tech and high betas and into safety stocks like utilities and drugs. At this rate AAPL may go back to $90 lol. I still think tech has a long way to go before it bottoms. Even stocks like V and MA will fall despite how great they are. When PEP, JNJ, LLY, D, DUK and NEE lead this market you know were in trouble. Not much fun when were in a bear market. Today my TGT will suffer.

(11-20-2018, 09:14 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]As i said a few weeks back. Get out of tech and high betas and into safety stocks like utilities and drugs. At this rate AAPL may go back to $90 lol. I still think tech has a long way to go before it bottoms. Even stocks like V and MA will fall despite how great they are. When PEP, JNJ, LLY, D, DUK and NEE lead this market you know were in trouble. Not much fun when were in a bear market. Today my TGT will suffer.

Stop saying that, you're scaring me lol.  AAPL to sub $100 would drag the entire market halfway back to 2008.  AMZN and AAPL are my only stocks that are down bigly last 90 days.  I certainly have a lot of stocks with modest losses though, and only a few winners.  Drugs have been good and I have prospered.  I'm not touching utilities with new money due to valuation for now.  Those who do that now are going to get burned and I don't think it will be a long wait as PEs rise.  Not NVDA burned, but they will be sad for a year or more if you don't leave room in your wallet to average down..  The rules haven't changed.   Load up on high utils with tech stock PEs and rising interest rates and you'll get smoked at some point.   I am patiently waiting.  Took some util profits a bit early and patiently waiting.    

Agree on the bear market though.  Hope everyone keeps the faith.  The good companies will be fine.

(11-20-2018, 11:22 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-20-2018, 09:14 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]As i said a few weeks back. Get out of tech and high betas and into safety stocks like utilities and drugs. At this rate AAPL may go back to $90 lol. I still think tech has a long way to go before it bottoms. Even stocks like V and MA will fall despite how great they are. When PEP, JNJ, LLY, D, DUK and NEE lead this market you know were in trouble. Not much fun when were in a bear market. Today my TGT will suffer.

Stop saying that, you're scaring me lol.  AAPL to sub $100 would drag the entire market halfway back to 2008.  AMZN and AAPL are my only stocks that are down bigly last 90 days.  I certainly have a lot of stocks with modest losses though, and only a few winners.  Drugs have been good and I have prospered.  I'm not touching utilities with new money due to valuation for now.  Those who do that now are going to get burned and I don't think it will be a long wait as PEs rise.  Not NVDA burned, but they will be sad for a year or more if you don't leave room in your wallet to average down..  The rules haven't changed.   Load up on high utils with tech stock PEs and rising interest rates and you'll get smoked at some point.   I am patiently waiting.  Took some util profits a bit early and patiently waiting.    

Agree on the bear market though.  Hope everyone keeps the faith.  The good companies will be fine.

I own D, NEE, DUK, AWK and XEL. I see no reason to sell yet. You have to hide your money somewhere and make it on the dividends. Sure they have had a run. But when you in a bear market these kind of companies will continue to go up. I mean most are only trade at 15x next earnings. That's still much cheaper then the tech stocks which are slowing down now and have been over valued for years. I try not to invest in hype sectors. Eventually they come crashing down. Just imagine if you owned NVDA lol. I know AMZN and GOOG wil come back since all the ETF's hold them and are in the top 5 holdings in most funds. So they wont let them get too low!!

Anyway I did add to MO and PSX today. High quality dividend payers as a discount.

(11-20-2018, 12:09 PM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-20-2018, 11:22 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(11-20-2018, 09:14 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]As i said a few weeks back. Get out of tech and high betas and into safety stocks like utilities and drugs. At this rate AAPL may go back to $90 lol. I still think tech has a long way to go before it bottoms. Even stocks like V and MA will fall despite how great they are. When PEP, JNJ, LLY, D, DUK and NEE lead this market you know were in trouble. Not much fun when were in a bear market. Today my TGT will suffer.

Stop saying that, you're scaring me lol.  AAPL to sub $100 would drag the entire market halfway back to 2008.  AMZN and AAPL are my only stocks that are down bigly last 90 days.  I certainly have a lot of stocks with modest losses though, and only a few winners.  Drugs have been good and I have prospered.  I'm not touching utilities with new money due to valuation for now.  Those who do that now are going to get burned and I don't think it will be a long wait as PEs rise.  Not NVDA burned, but they will be sad for a year or more if you don't leave room in your wallet to average down..  The rules haven't changed.   Load up on high utils with tech stock PEs and rising interest rates and you'll get smoked at some point.   I am patiently waiting.  Took some util profits a bit early and patiently waiting.    

Agree on the bear market though.  Hope everyone keeps the faith.  The good companies will be fine.

I own D, NEE, DUK, AWK and XEL. I see no reason to sell yet. You have to hide your money somewhere and make it on the dividends. Sure they have had a run. But when you in a bear market these kind of companies will continue to go up. I mean most are only trade at 15x next earnings. That's still much cheaper then the tech stocks which are slowing down now and have been over valued for years. I try not to invest in hype sectors. Eventually they come crashing down. Just imagine if you owned NVDA lol. I know AMZN and GOOG wil come back since all the ETF's hold them and are in the top 5 holdings in most funds. So they wont let them get too low!!

Anyway I did add to MO and PSX today. High quality dividend payers as a discount.

I'm not at all suggesting anyone should dump long held utilities.  But dumping a stock now after a 20% loss to "hide" in utilities at the top is not prudent.  It may or may not apply to my drug stocks too. That is what the market is doing this month tough for sure. Same market that thought AAPL was a good idea 40 points ago. I can hide in a MM fund that is getting way too close to XELs current yield with no risk, and that is exactly what I am doing just to keep some dry powder.  Just an example and I am certainly not an XEL hater.  Held it for 25 years with a VERY good result.  I'll be back when the market wakes up and sees the util PEs and yields. It will happen if FED raises rates a time or two.

added to ORCL & AAPL today.

divmenow Wrote:Just imagine if you owned NVDA lol.

Well, again it's all about the long term. You need to be able to look past the market fluctuations and invest in companies based on their long term potential instead of staring at the daily changes.

So what if you owned Nvidia? Bad investment? Horrible decision?

If you bought in the last 18 months yeah, you've lost some... the valuation definitely got out of hand recently. If you bought 2 years ago? +60%. Are we honestly complaining about averaging 30% in a year? If you bought 5 years ago? +882%. Yup, if you've held it for 5 years you are looking at over 900% return when you include the dividends.

Bad investment. Right?

(just to add, I don't own and have never owned NVIDIA. Just felt like pointing out that the only people who really got burned are those who went in way too late when it was one of the hottest hype stocks around. The majority of people who went in before the hype are still looking at triple digit gains)

It's all about the timing when playing with the high flyers. When they melt down there are often a lot of short-time holders. Some of those smart enough to buy them really low know when it's time to jump. New investors tend to average down because they are in denial they screwed up getting in late. It can be a painful to ride it back up, if it ever does. I know a guy that held INTC for about 10 years and MSFT for 15. I should have given up on Microsoft but held on until I had about a double finally. Then I cashed out and it more than doubled again but FAR quicker for the next owners.

I'll never hold a high PE chip stock again. The story always ends the same if you hold them long enough. You could buy the next INTC early but that's a lotto shot. The best chip stocks end up crashing like NVDA. NVDA is solid and may be back, but it might be 10 years to hit 200 again. I'm not against owning a high flyer, (I own Amazon now), but I would never load up my port with high PE stocks again, and definitely not semi-conductor stocks. I owned AMD when it was a high flyer in the 1990s for about $17. I'd be up $2 if I'd held it until today. The most powerful chip stock ever, INTC hasn't gotten even close to it's 2001 peak. The real profit was made over 20 years ago. NVDA could very well follow the same path, or not. The market somehow forgets chip stocks are cyclical. I don't know of any exceptions long-term. The same dozen companies are still here doing what they do every 3-5 years.

Did a little diversification today and bought TJX, XLU, TD and AAPL

@divmenow, I own NVDIA and I am loosing money on it right now. My average price went up due to my recent purchases. I wish I could see the future or I was as experienced and smart as some of the people here so that I could have maximized my returns. But I am not worried about the stock in long run. I am bullish on the stock not because of its recent run but because of the vision they have and the tech and revenue models they are working on. They are way ahead of anyone else in the game.

Added NVDIA

Added some JNJ just under $141 just now. It has had a great run but these are the names I want to be investing in over the next 15-20 years. I would like to add some tech but this sector is hit or miss. Bought APPL yes only because its cheap compared to the rest in sector and my kids have 4 iphones lol. Tech either goes go up big, or down big. Just to nerve-racking for me lol. Tech to me was way over valued and most don't even pay a dividend. It also looks like the market needs to readjust earnings on all this companies because of the lofty valuations and tariffs from trade wars.


BTW what's up with GILD? Anyone still own the name? Not looking good.