(12-09-2020, 02:04 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 01:27 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]As I said, going with familiarity and gut feeling on this pick, and it is a small part of my overall portfolio, but I think this will join a few other MoMo stocks that went public this year.
I do like Airbnb for a quick trade, indeed I find it very likely that it will climb significantly from it's IPO price. That seems to be the norm for recent tech IPOs and the buzz around Airbnb should make it happen here too. Of course I could be completely wrong, but indeed I'm considering a quick trade.
But long-term? I just don't think Airbnb has any sort of a major moat or competitive advantage compared to other similar companies. It might be an ok company, but I'm going to quote our buddy fenders here and say "valuation does matter". Or something like that. 
To a large extent their long-term success and development of a moat depends on the network effect. If Airbnb is the first thing the majority of people think of when selecting vacation rentals, that is a meaningful advantage unto itself. MySpace and Ask Jeeves learned that.
(12-09-2020, 02:04 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 01:27 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]As I said, going with familiarity and gut feeling on this pick, and it is a small part of my overall portfolio, but I think this will join a few other MoMo stocks that went public this year.
I do like Airbnb for a quick trade, indeed I find it very likely that it will climb significantly from it's IPO price. That seems to be the norm for recent tech IPOs and the buzz around Airbnb should make it happen here too. Of course I could be completely wrong, but indeed I'm considering a quick trade.
But long-term? I just don't think Airbnb has any sort of a major moat or competitive advantage compared to other similar companies. It might be an ok company, but I'm going to quote our buddy fenders here and say "valuation does matter". Or something like that.Â
Thanks for the shout out. Pretty sure I made up this stock valuation theory thing. Otter is ignoring me because he is flush with DASH stock right now. I just know he's gonna brag when it surpasses AMZN in CAP next week.
Airbnb is able to build a huge brand name so far. They are super customer friendly. Street like their ceo.
They are not as cheap and as authentic they were 2-3 years back and unless they figure out a way to be profitable, grow and solve this problem, they will face headwinds. Given the travel boom post covid and new gen appetite to be different and insta and pinterest world, they still have huge potential to grow.
DASH is a different story on the other hand.
(12-09-2020, 02:06 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 01:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 01:34 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 01:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 01:02 PM)kblake Wrote: [ -> ]Looks like the teach bubble is finally starting to pop lol
While all you guys were buying those high flyers like CRWD, TWLO and U
I hopped in on XON, LOW, T and those beaten down names. Its paying off at least for today lol
Added a few more BAX this morning
I am about to trim T if it keeps running. It's been a good one this quarter. Income and capital gain.Â
I sold a put in BMY and DG. Added a few more shares of XEL and started a position in SWKS for the growthy port. Just one share. Hoping tech gets hit some soon but not holding my breath.
DASH has launched. Â Three hours old and over half the market CAP of MCD. Â SBUX is the only other restaurant stock with a higher CAP. Â Seems legit. Â
Not suggesting it's exactly the same market wide, but the gambling has now entered the zone of Tech bubble 2000. Â People are going to get wrecked again. It's going to be just as brutal.
Absent a change in interest rates (unlikely), I don't know that this is true. Interest rates in 2000 were way higher.
As permabear Ray Dalio has pointed out, investments compete with each other for market share (bonds, equities, real estate, gold, etc.), and treasuries are presently trading around 75x earnings. Given that, a 50x P/E norm for stocks wouldn't be outside of historical ratios. You might not like it, it might not feel right, but it would fit the traditional relationship between stocks and treasuries. I'm old enough to remember when TINA was a thing, back during the post-2008 monetary expansion. The most hated bull market in history (until maybe this one).Â
Also, how much of the recent run up in stock prices is tied to fundamentals vs. erosion in the value of the dollar. Just look at the charts for UUP and UDN. The Fed printing has had a noticeable impact on the value of the dollar vs. the basket of currencies it is typically priced against. Still kicking myself for closing out my UUP Puts purchased back in the March/April timeframe.
I refuse to rationalize the flagrant gambling. I am not talking about the entire market, but the list of new pure gambling stocks is starting to get long. The IPOs will accelerate until the market will take no more. Why wouldn't you right now?  They will be crushed. No I don't know the date of this event but it will happen. A non-profit food delivery service worth more than anything else in the entire restaurant sector minus MCD and SBUX in three hours. Worth way more than YUM, DRI, CBRL, Chipolte. Yeah, just no.
I’m totally onboard the Dash is trash train. I don’t find it investable, nor have I been interested in many of the other IPO listings this year.
Then again, I was also bearish on TSLA for a long period. They managed to shoot the insolvency gap successfully. Good for them. Still not a buyer of TSLA, though.
Hope I don't sound upset. I'm glad you are back and debating me. I miss that. DASH may not be trash. It just happens to be 10X it's value today. This is the stuff that ends bull markets. Fools get burned and the new mantra is the market is too dangerous for regular people, and the attitude lasts for years. Politicians will feed it.Â
I changed sides on you this time.  I gave you hell for shorting TSLA. Your initial thesis wasn't really wrong. TSLA in fact makes more revenue selling shares than cars. TSLA while dangerous to invest in to me, is a different story.  We have ten years to study. It's clear they can build a quality EV that people will buy. They have a MOAT of sorts. It would take years for F, GM and TOY to put them out of business if they even could. TSLA valuation is beyond ridiculous, but it's a bad short because it could triple again.  When can we short DASH?Â
 Kidding on a straight short, but a put buy might be tempting if it runs a few more days lol.  There is zero chance major chains pay DASH 30% for long. They'll make other arrangements soon, or squeeze all the delivery services when the pandemic slows.
(12-09-2020, 01:31 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]Mind boggling who buys at these valuations? Look at c3.ai today. I would have closed my eyes and threw some money at $50 but it opens at $100. Absurd.
Good grief, and to think I was struggling with the decision to buy a small amount of STWD just under $17.50 a few weeks back. Did the Robinhood gang see "AI" in the name and assume it was a tech company?
(12-09-2020, 02:43 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 02:06 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 01:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 01:34 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 01:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]I am about to trim T if it keeps running. It's been a good one this quarter. Income and capital gain.Â
I sold a put in BMY and DG. Added a few more shares of XEL and started a position in SWKS for the growthy port. Just one share. Hoping tech gets hit some soon but not holding my breath.
DASH has launched. Â Three hours old and over half the market CAP of MCD. Â SBUX is the only other restaurant stock with a higher CAP. Â Seems legit. Â
Not suggesting it's exactly the same market wide, but the gambling has now entered the zone of Tech bubble 2000. Â People are going to get wrecked again. It's going to be just as brutal.
Absent a change in interest rates (unlikely), I don't know that this is true. Interest rates in 2000 were way higher.
As permabear Ray Dalio has pointed out, investments compete with each other for market share (bonds, equities, real estate, gold, etc.), and treasuries are presently trading around 75x earnings. Given that, a 50x P/E norm for stocks wouldn't be outside of historical ratios. You might not like it, it might not feel right, but it would fit the traditional relationship between stocks and treasuries. I'm old enough to remember when TINA was a thing, back during the post-2008 monetary expansion. The most hated bull market in history (until maybe this one).Â
Also, how much of the recent run up in stock prices is tied to fundamentals vs. erosion in the value of the dollar. Just look at the charts for UUP and UDN. The Fed printing has had a noticeable impact on the value of the dollar vs. the basket of currencies it is typically priced against. Still kicking myself for closing out my UUP Puts purchased back in the March/April timeframe.
I refuse to rationalize the flagrant gambling. I am not talking about the entire market, but the list of new pure gambling stocks is starting to get long. The IPOs will accelerate until the market will take no more. Why wouldn't you right now?  They will be crushed. No I don't know the date of this event but it will happen. A non-profit food delivery service worth more than anything else in the entire restaurant sector minus MCD and SBUX in three hours. Worth way more than YUM, DRI, CBRL, Chipolte. Yeah, just no.
I’m totally onboard the Dash is trash train. I don’t find it investable, nor have I been interested in many of the other IPO listings this year.
Then again, I was also bearish on TSLA for a long period. They managed to shoot the insolvency gap successfully. Good for them. Still not a buyer of TSLA, though.
Hope I don't sound upset. I'm glad you are back and debating me. I miss that. DASH may not be trash. It just happens to be 10X it's value today. This is the stuff that ends bull markets. Fools get burned and the new mantra is the market is too dangerous for regular people, and the attitude lasts for years. Politicians will feed it.Â
I changed sides on you this time.  I gave you hell for shorting TSLA. Your initial thesis wasn't really wrong. TSLA in fact makes more revenue selling shares than cars. TSLA while dangerous to invest in to me, is a different story.  We have ten years to study. It's clear they can build a quality EV that people will buy. They have a MOAT of sorts. It would take years for F, GM and TOY to put them out of business if they even could. TSLA valuation is beyond ridiculous, but it's a bad short because it could triple again.  When can we short DASH?  Kidding on a straight short, but a put buy might be tempting if it runs a few more days lol.  There is zero chance major chains pay DASH 30% for long. They'll make other arrangements soon, or squeeze all the delivery services when the pandemic slows.
I got super lucky on TSLA and cashed out my puts for a small profit thanks to the Feb/Mar market meltdown. Those puts were down 80% at one point. Never touching that stock again.Â
I see zero durable advantage for DASH. There is going to be huge pent-up demand for sit-down dining after this pandemic mess is over, and that will hurt them. You are correct that their current pricing scheme is unsustainable. No moat at all. When the area I used to live in featured easy access to Uber Eats, DoorDash, Postmates, etc., I never felt any loyalty to any particular delivery app. Whichever one partnered with the restaurant I wanted, or had recently sent me a promo code, was the one I used. About as appealing to me as GRPN (which is to say, not at all).
Someone following this thread could really get the wrong idea about this forum. MoMo stocks are way more fun to discuss and trash talk than typical DGI stocks, because they break all the rules and do stupid, unpredictable things. Meanwhile, the majority of DGI stocks with solid balance sheets mostly plod along and grow their earnings in a predictable and calm way. Sometimes you get fortunate and find a few that are undervalued, which could mean a 20-30% pop over a year for a stellar pick, while TrashFraud.com quadruples.
(12-09-2020, 02:58 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 02:43 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 02:06 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 01:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (12-09-2020, 01:34 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]Absent a change in interest rates (unlikely), I don't know that this is true. Interest rates in 2000 were way higher.
As permabear Ray Dalio has pointed out, investments compete with each other for market share (bonds, equities, real estate, gold, etc.), and treasuries are presently trading around 75x earnings. Given that, a 50x P/E norm for stocks wouldn't be outside of historical ratios. You might not like it, it might not feel right, but it would fit the traditional relationship between stocks and treasuries. I'm old enough to remember when TINA was a thing, back during the post-2008 monetary expansion. The most hated bull market in history (until maybe this one).Â
Also, how much of the recent run up in stock prices is tied to fundamentals vs. erosion in the value of the dollar. Just look at the charts for UUP and UDN. The Fed printing has had a noticeable impact on the value of the dollar vs. the basket of currencies it is typically priced against. Still kicking myself for closing out my UUP Puts purchased back in the March/April timeframe.
I refuse to rationalize the flagrant gambling. I am not talking about the entire market, but the list of new pure gambling stocks is starting to get long. The IPOs will accelerate until the market will take no more. Why wouldn't you right now?  They will be crushed. No I don't know the date of this event but it will happen. A non-profit food delivery service worth more than anything else in the entire restaurant sector minus MCD and SBUX in three hours. Worth way more than YUM, DRI, CBRL, Chipolte. Yeah, just no.
I’m totally onboard the Dash is trash train. I don’t find it investable, nor have I been interested in many of the other IPO listings this year.
Then again, I was also bearish on TSLA for a long period. They managed to shoot the insolvency gap successfully. Good for them. Still not a buyer of TSLA, though.
Hope I don't sound upset. I'm glad you are back and debating me. I miss that. DASH may not be trash. It just happens to be 10X it's value today. This is the stuff that ends bull markets. Fools get burned and the new mantra is the market is too dangerous for regular people, and the attitude lasts for years. Politicians will feed it.Â
I changed sides on you this time.  I gave you hell for shorting TSLA. Your initial thesis wasn't really wrong. TSLA in fact makes more revenue selling shares than cars. TSLA while dangerous to invest in to me, is a different story.  We have ten years to study. It's clear they can build a quality EV that people will buy. They have a MOAT of sorts. It would take years for F, GM and TOY to put them out of business if they even could. TSLA valuation is beyond ridiculous, but it's a bad short because it could triple again.  When can we short DASH?  Kidding on a straight short, but a put buy might be tempting if it runs a few more days lol.  There is zero chance major chains pay DASH 30% for long. They'll make other arrangements soon, or squeeze all the delivery services when the pandemic slows.
I got super lucky on TSLA and cashed out my puts for a small profit thanks to the Feb/Mar market meltdown. Those puts were down 80% at one point. Never touching that stock again.Â
I see zero durable advantage for DASH. There is going to be huge pent-up demand for sit-down dining after this pandemic mess is over, and that will hurt them. You are correct that their current pricing scheme is unsustainable. No moat at all. When the area I used to live in featured easy access to Uber Eats, DoorDash, Postmates, etc., I never felt any loyalty to any particular delivery app. Whichever one partnered with the restaurant I wanted, or had recently sent me a promo code, was the one I used. About as appealing to me as GRPN (which is to say, not at all).
I have read a few trade articles. Restaurant owners are angry. They are trying to pay the rent, not fire their best staff and stay somewhat solvent. They feel like all their profit is being price gouged away. I'm guessing they are feeling the desire to get even when the opportunity presents itself, and it will. At some point people pay to have small orders of food delivered, or you drive your lazy self to the restaurant like you are supposed to in normal times. Only pizza is supposed to be delivered when you are too drunk to drive. And you tip the driver wearing out his car lol. Â
DOOR spiked about 5% VERY briefly early this morning. Not Door Dash, but the boring company that manufacturers Masonite Doors I sell at work. This is how you lose your money lol.
It looks like Airbnb is priced at about $47B or $68/SH. IIRC the estimated valuation was about 20B in the spring when they delayed the IPO. Good move on their part as the market is in the IPO mood now. I am going to place a limit order I doubt will be filled today. I'll be surprised if there is any chance of getting shares under $100. As Otter stated a few days ago 2022 comps are going to be wonderful lol, but they surely have a couple more bad quarters ahead. I think there may be a chance to get some shares reasonable over the winter. IMO you have to be willing to overpay for a good IPO. My limit may be lower than others though.
$152 a share for ABNB. No one is going to buy it. And if you are at that price you need your head examined lol.See you at $100 in 3 weeks