Dividend Growth Forum

(10-09-2018, 09:24 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-09-2018, 12:12 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-09-2018, 10:06 AM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]Added AAL.

Are they down due to bond prices or very expensive fuel the next year or so?  I haven't followed airline stocks lately.

Expensive fuel

Thanks, that's what I thought.  They tend to run very contrary to oil stocks.   Both industries have boom and bust balance sheets trouble when oil prices rise or fall. I took a glance at AAL and your dividend seems secure enough.

A bit of blood in the streets today. Some of my oil stocks sure took a beating today. It's been a good week to be in DGI rather than high flying tech as it could certainly be worse. I did some nibbling today on new positions I intend to keep fairly small for now due to lower dividends or higher valuations (IMO anyway). Added DIS-AAPL-BAC, and a third share of of AMZN. Added to a few ETFs including S&P, S&P 600 smallcap and several DIV Growth oriented ETFs. Trying to be patient nd not deploy all my cash too fast in case this gets much worse.

Added VWO, STWD, AAL, BABA(non-div), TCEHY(non-div), NKE.

What are some of the stocks people here think are coming into buy territory ? Would be great to hear opinions from more savvy and experienced folks.

Added a little to my existing position in BIP this morning.

(10-11-2018, 02:36 AM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]Added VWO, STWD, AAL, BABA(non-div), TCEHY(non-div), NKE.

What are some of the stocks people here think are coming into buy territory ? Would be great to hear opinions from more savvy and experienced folks.

This may sound like generic advice but after enduring about 20 of these real bad stock market days I start with what NOT to do.  The market can be very irrational for a time.  Here are a few of my rules.  I'm not perfect but I mostly abide. 

-BUY QUALITY as there is no need to buy anything less now.  If the company had potential fleas last month they still have them now.  (Chip stocks).  Investors (and traders) will flock to the good companies  that are not likely to report disappointing earnings next month.  Missing earning by much will be devastating to share price when there are better less risky options now.

-If you chase a high flier go very slow on the way down.   I have been buying a single share of AMZN most every day for awhile.  My commissions are $2 so that makes it easier.  Be very wary of falling knife stocks.   I'd like some BABA but no chance I jump in yet.  There is a reason it is falling so hard, but the longterm future seems bright.  It's a good company when China get's their economy and stock market out of freefall.

-There will likely be a flight to value soon.  Good companies with a good DIV.   It's likely healthcare stocks will be pretty strong as they are defensive.  They aren't on sale so much now but their is a reason.

-Spreading my bets out for sure.  At least small investments in my various ETFs.  l expected this and was very cashy.  Added to my Index funds yesterday.  S&P 500 and S&P 600 smallcap.  Small caps are taking a bad beating lately.  They won't likely recover fast.  

As I already mentioned I started some new smaller positions in large caps I haven't owned for a long time.      

I think consumer staples, financials, insurance, and the leaders in other industries are as safe as it gets.  I sold my utilities on the spike and will get back in soon enough.  It is completely irrational that they spiked this week, and especially yesterday.  A 3.5% dividend isn't going to save you in a rising interest environment.  Not for long at elevated utility stock prices anyway.  I predict they will pull back pretty hard when the market stops being so scared. 
   
Be aware of the China trade fight in all decisions.  Some companies are at extreme risk of being hurt.  A lot of industrials are at risk for now.  Should create a nice buying opportunity soon  but most are still too expensive.

Not comfortable with my oil stock purchases but I am in or now.  May or may not be a nice buying opportunity now but I am in at a little higher price.

Today I am nibbling on some HD, some more healthcare soon.  I continue to go slow as who knows when this ends for sure?  This is not the "big correction" in my opinion.  Economy is still strong.

Added MCD-HD and my daily share of AMZN this morning.  I don't find them particularly undervalued now, but they are blue chips on a dip, recent analyst upgrades and/or dividend increases, with safe earnings coming IMO.

I added some MCD, UTX and ORI

Closed out a position in OHI for a modest gain. Took the proceeds and added to my stake in KMB.

Not a dividend stock, but I bought some shares of SQ in my trading account this morning.

~30% off its recent all-time high.

Curious to know why you let go of OHI at this point? I'm aware of the issues they have but now that people are starting to panic again I think a high yielding healthcare REIT is not a bad place to keep some money in.

I'm horrible at timing but so far this seems ok. At the open I bought RTN puts @ 190 for next week's Friday. Purely a protective play, let's see how it goes.
I'll probably do half of my monthly buys on Monday and the other half later on depending on where the market seems to be heading.

(10-12-2018, 11:53 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: [ -> ]Curious to know why you let go of OHI at this point? I'm aware of the issues they have but now that people are starting to panic again I think a high yielding healthcare REIT is not a bad place to keep some money in.

I'm horrible at timing but so far this seems ok. At the open I bought RTN puts  @ 190 for next week's Friday. Purely a protective play, let's see how it goes.
I'll probably do half of my monthly buys on Monday and the other half later on depending on where the market seems to be heading.

I had a modest long-term gain on my holding, which goes back to 2016. They paid me a nice dividend during that time period, which I invested into a number of other holdings. My overall portfolio weight in the REIT sector was slightly higher than I wanted (already own O, NNN, FRT, SKT, WPC). Credit rating is BBB- (I typically want BBB+ or better when making a purchase). FFO and FAD guidance were recently adjusted downwards by OHI, with FAD now at at an estimated range of $2.67-$2.74 per share. This guidance leaves almost no margin for error for a company paying a $2.64 annual dividend, and with current forecast growth prospects essentially flat. I do not view the OHI dividend as having a high margin of safety or any meaningful near-term growth prospects.

On the other hand, KMB has a 46-year history of dividend raises, is trading near the top-end of its historical yield range, has an A credit rating, has averaged roughly 6.5% annual dividend growth over a 5 and 10-year period, and its 80% payout ratio, whilst not exceptional (I typically like below 75%), is fine for a boring consumer staples company with steady cash flows that have grown consistently over the long term (despite year-to-year variation). KMB is a SWAN, OHI is not. I'm okay with trading a bit of  yield for consistency and stability.

(10-12-2018, 11:51 AM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]Not a dividend stock, but I bought some shares of SQ in my trading account this morning.

~30% off its recent all-time high.

Only non-divvy stock I own. Started my position at $35. Increased my stake by 20% yesterday when it dipped into the $66.50 range. This is the one "I have a gut feeling" stock I allow myself to purchase, which doesn't pay me quarterly to hold on. Truly think that in a couple decades, could look back on it as being an AMZN or AAPL growth story. Could also be wrong. Not a huge overall component of my present portfolio, but it could be down the road if it continues to go beast mode with the growth.

(10-12-2018, 12:16 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-12-2018, 11:51 AM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]Not a dividend stock, but I bought some shares of SQ in my trading account this morning.

~30% off its recent all-time high.

Only non-divvy stock I own. Started my position at $35. Increased my stake by 20% yesterday when it dipped into the $66.50 range. This is the one "I have a gut feeling" stock I allow myself to purchase, which doesn't pay me quarterly to hold on. Truly think that in a couple decades, could look back on it as being an AMZN or AAPL growth story. Could also be wrong. Not a huge overall component of my present portfolio, but it could be down the road if it continues to go beast mode with the growth.

I agree. We've been buying it in our investment club since around $30. This is my first purchase in an individual account.