Dividend Growth Forum

Sold my XLE stocks which were assigned on Friday and sold XLE put again for mid oct. If covid waves comes back xle will test $29

(09-28-2020, 12:25 PM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]Bought some XOM, FANG and RDS.B. Call it a hunch lol. I have been out of oil for a long time until today.

I like the fact that Shell purchased Greenlots 2 years ago. I’m hoping EV charging stations will be a money maker in the long run.

I hope your right. I bought some oil as well in XOM and VLO.

I mean its about the only value left in the market 



I remember 8 or so so years ago all those oil stocks were at the bottom and no one wanted them. I made a lot of money buying a basket of oil. I hope I have the same luck here!!

(09-28-2020, 12:40 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]Sold my XLE stocks which were assigned on Friday and sold XLE put again for mid oct. If covid waves comes back xle will test $29

I see $32. We wont see $29 again. The calls are very active. Your going to miss the run 

(09-28-2020, 12:44 PM)kblake Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-28-2020, 12:40 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]Sold my XLE stocks which were assigned on Friday and sold XLE put again for mid oct. If covid waves comes back xle will test $29

I see $32. We wont see $29 again. The calls are very active. Your going to miss the run 

I have tons of oil. At this point if I am buying anything oil, that's just pure greed becouse it's too cheap to ignore.

(09-28-2020, 12:45 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-28-2020, 12:44 PM)kblake Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-28-2020, 12:40 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]Sold my XLE stocks which were assigned on Friday and sold XLE put again for mid oct. If covid waves comes back xle will test $29

I see $32. We wont see $29 again. The calls are very active. Your going to miss the run 

I have tons of oil. At this point if I am buying anything oil, that's just pure greed becouse it's too cheap to ignore.

63% of electricity is produced by fossil fuel in usa. The hype of electric car will fade soon. 

Like you I have a ton of oil. It will turn eventually. As long as they dont cut the dividend I'm good.

IMO oil is all about catching the bottom. It hasn't been a buy and hold for quite a few years now. Most of us just didn't notice the over-supply problem is permanent. I allowed myself to get sucked in with the S.A. oil apologists in 2019 and told myself it won't happen again. It's hard to separate oil spot price from stock price. It really doesn't matter if oil is $50 or $20 for just a few months. Just don't convince yourself XOM is actually an $80 stock, and you are getting it for half price. It's a lotto shot that it happens soon enough to make it a good hold.

Anyway, oil stocks are due for a dead cat bounce. I am dancing RDS puts lower and will do so until forced in. Thankful I only have a couple. I came VERY close to pulling the trigger on BP and XOM weeks ago, and here they are much lower already. The option premium is high for a reason.

I've said this before but the problem with green energy is NOT that it is going to put oil out of business. The problem is it is sucking up the potential growth in oil supply needs. Especially now when the world economy is just going to plod along. We have OPEC controlling production, US oil drilling next to nothing new, large countries sanctioned with potential huge amounts they wish they could sell. Unlimited capacity they can and will put on the market quick if/when oil spikes. These countries are in deep financial trouble already as it's their only real source of income. But solar and wind are only cheaper because governments support it, with subsidies in some cases. Raise your hand if you think the world is not heading that way for the rest of your life.

I'd love to hear anyone's LONGTERM bull thesis. What am I failing to realize?

P.S. I am in RDS vs the others for one reason only. It's not because they are better than XOM, CVX etc. They aren't. But they already ripped the band-aid off and they can afford the dividend for multiple quarters of Armageddon oil prices should they occur. Others are playing with fire. They are going to be so damn far in debt and become hopeless to grow for 10 years. I don't want to be long that mess.

Somebody please sass me please.

There is no long term bull on oil. Unless these companies transform into renewable.

In short term(10-20) years. The oil will still do well.

(09-28-2020, 05:12 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]There is no long term bull on oil. Unless these companies transform into renewable.

In short term(10-20) years. The oil will still do well.

That's my opinion as well.  I'm sure you remember I got beat up on BP on the last major ride down.  Then they announce they are "going green".  It sounded good but the SP has suffered anyway.  Just a PR stunt for now.  Am I supposed to believe they will out compete the renewables companies that have been learning the ropes and innovating for 10+ years.  

I think oil has a modest place even 50 years from now.   It's just the excessive supply issue.  In days gone by these inefficient producers would be gone.  Sure some went BK lately, but not nearly enough.  Give it three years, and some event will spike oil prices for a few months.  Some new stupid spec money will drill-baby-drill and wreck it.  

It's just a trade.  Let a new wave of Covid crash world oil demand and I might add some.  (That seems quite possible)  If I don't catch the true bottom with half my position, almost anything with a sound balance sheet, or any growth outperforms my oil trade after a year or two.  Doesn't mean you can't get lucky and catch a 5pt+ run.  Somebody will time it right.

Added to MKC at $183.75. Its now my 3rd largest holding. 2-1 split as well. Nice!

Bought AAPL, MKC, EOG, and COST

Also sold some Nov 25.00 puts on RDS.B.

Time for my monthly adds.
T (just a tiny bit), MAA, Red Eléctrica de España thingy

Added NEE at $267. 50 this morning