Dividend Growth Forum

Got some BDX and XYL on earnings/outlook disappointments today.


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(02-05-2020, 01:33 PM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-05-2020, 12:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-05-2020, 11:36 AM)DividendGarden Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-05-2020, 10:51 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]XOM and CVX are making cool powerpoint slides pretending they are into renewables going forward.

Haha!

I'm no doubt ticking members off that are crossing their fingers and riding these stocks down.  I would truly love to hear a forward looking bull thesis because all I read (elsewhere) sounds like 20 years ago.  I'm very open to other views.  IMO they are just very short trades until they get a meaningful plan.

The world uses 100 million barrels crude oil EVERY SINGLE DAY. There is surplus production, primarily thanks to US production growth from shale plays, that has resulted in depressed prices. I have doubts that this growth will continue into the future.

All the hysteria about electric cars and renewable energy doesn't change the fact that worldwide demand for fossil fuels continues to grow every year, and likely will for the foreseeable future.

Market sentiment is as bad as it's ever been on the industry, but the fact remains that unless there are huge technological advances in battery/electric power storage, EV's and renewable energy aren't going to take over the world. They are too inefficient, intermittent, and expensive with current technologies to fully replace fossil fuels.

That is why I continue to own CVX, XOM, and other energy companies.

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/s...319-MM.pdf

https://economics21.org/inconvenient-rea...gy-economy

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener...tated.html

I own XOM and I agree there are that there are areas where there will be a need for oil etc.

I will say, I think some are underestimating EV’s and where the technology is. We aren’t dealing with the Leaf of 6 or 7 years ago. You can now buy a car with 300 mile range that has the ability to have an initial recharge rate of 1000MPH. With that sort of charge rate, worrying about taking a road trip is out the window.

Every morning I leave the house with a full “tank of gas” for a nominal price since it is charged at off peak times. With 300 mile range, there isn’t even a thought about having to plug in for in city driving etc although in most medium to large cities, there are plenty of options.

I will say that manufactures are playing catch up with Tesla when it comes to fast recharging etc so I think that will limit the demand for say an Etron until they can make a road trip more viable, but for in city driving there is no downside that I can think of. 

I have had 5 friends get the Model 3 over the last 15 months or so and not one of them has a desire to go back.

(02-07-2020, 08:51 AM)Ron Ricco Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-05-2020, 01:33 PM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-05-2020, 12:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-05-2020, 11:36 AM)DividendGarden Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-05-2020, 10:51 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]XOM and CVX are making cool powerpoint slides pretending they are into renewables going forward.

Haha!

I'm no doubt ticking members off that are crossing their fingers and riding these stocks down.  I would truly love to hear a forward looking bull thesis because all I read (elsewhere) sounds like 20 years ago.  I'm very open to other views.  IMO they are just very short trades until they get a meaningful plan.

The world uses 100 million barrels crude oil EVERY SINGLE DAY. There is surplus production, primarily thanks to US production growth from shale plays, that has resulted in depressed prices. I have doubts that this growth will continue into the future.

All the hysteria about electric cars and renewable energy doesn't change the fact that worldwide demand for fossil fuels continues to grow every year, and likely will for the foreseeable future.

Market sentiment is as bad as it's ever been on the industry, but the fact remains that unless there are huge technological advances in battery/electric power storage, EV's and renewable energy aren't going to take over the world. They are too inefficient, intermittent, and expensive with current technologies to fully replace fossil fuels.

That is why I continue to own CVX, XOM, and other energy companies.

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/s...319-MM.pdf

https://economics21.org/inconvenient-rea...gy-economy

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener...tated.html

I own XOM and I agree there are that there are areas where there will be a need for oil etc.

I will say, I think some are underestimating EV’s and where the technology is. We aren’t dealing with the Leaf of 6 or 7 years ago. You can now buy a car with 300 mile range that has the ability to have an initial recharge rate of 1000MPH. With that sort of charge rate, worrying about taking a road trip is out the window.

Every morning I leave the house with a full “tank of gas” for a nominal price since it is charged at off peak times. With 300 mile range, there isn’t even a thought about having to plug in for in city driving etc although in most medium to large cities, there are plenty of options.

I will say that manufactures are playing catch up with Tesla when it comes to fast recharging etc so I think that will limit the demand for say an Etron until they can make a road trip more viable, but for in city driving there is no downside that I can think of. 

I have had 5 friends get the Model 3 over the last 15 months or so and not one of them has a desire to go back.

This would be a great idea for a separate thread.  Damn near all of us are invested in oil including me though I backed it off lately.  I know I talk out both sides of my mouth on the subject but I am a realist.  I own quite lot of BP and an ETF.  But sticking my head in the sand isn't sound investing.  I have no plan to buy and hold this into the dirt.  There is a LOT of biased reading on the internet.  Oil demand will grow, and it seems supply will easily outpace it.  My opinions are not anecdotal, they are a result of keeping my eyes wide open.  I haven't seen a Tesla on an Iowa road in six months.  I personally know zero people even considering a purchase.  If you can't charge at home it would be a bad idea to own one.  I know that could change fast.  That means very little as they clearly sell very well in more "socialist" states and countries.  Europe is threatening to ban ICE vehicles.  The risk is very real.  No oil major is going bankrupt, but look at their 2019 earnings.  Do you really think you have no risk these stocks drop another 10%+ while we wait for the next black swan event that will likely be temporary?  I don't want to see BP drop to 30 or XOM drop to 50 and stay there.  

Look no further than the Utes.  XEL was about zero renewables a few years ago.  Now they are at 20% already.  All the good Utes are headed in the same direction, almost without exception.  They get it.  Coal is dead and now the fossil fuel is Natty Gas which is just about free and providing no real help to the oil majors operating profit.  They flare it off where it;s legal bacuase it makes little sense to transport it.  That's not very green and that matters. There are countless oil bulls on S.A. and I suspect most of you read their writings.  Ten year price charts lead me to believe they are delusional due to their over exposure to oil.  Gasoline is $2.10 in Iowa today and the economy is doing quite OK IMO.  Haven't seen that for more than a week for about 15 years.  Oversupply seems very real.  That's the real issue IMO.  Feel free to disagree, but most of what I hear was true 10 years ago, and oil majors are not benefiting as far as I can see.  The EV story is equally over optimist IMO, at least in the short term, but the market looks forward.

Rolled some pooled dividends into F this morning.

(02-07-2020, 09:33 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-07-2020, 08:51 AM)Ron Ricco Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-05-2020, 01:33 PM)EricL Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-05-2020, 12:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-05-2020, 11:36 AM)DividendGarden Wrote: [ -> ]Haha!

I'm no doubt ticking members off that are crossing their fingers and riding these stocks down.  I would truly love to hear a forward looking bull thesis because all I read (elsewhere) sounds like 20 years ago.  I'm very open to other views.  IMO they are just very short trades until they get a meaningful plan.

The world uses 100 million barrels crude oil EVERY SINGLE DAY. There is surplus production, primarily thanks to US production growth from shale plays, that has resulted in depressed prices. I have doubts that this growth will continue into the future.

All the hysteria about electric cars and renewable energy doesn't change the fact that worldwide demand for fossil fuels continues to grow every year, and likely will for the foreseeable future.

Market sentiment is as bad as it's ever been on the industry, but the fact remains that unless there are huge technological advances in battery/electric power storage, EV's and renewable energy aren't going to take over the world. They are too inefficient, intermittent, and expensive with current technologies to fully replace fossil fuels.

That is why I continue to own CVX, XOM, and other energy companies.

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/s...319-MM.pdf

https://economics21.org/inconvenient-rea...gy-economy

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener...tated.html

I own XOM and I agree there are that there are areas where there will be a need for oil etc.

I will say, I think some are underestimating EV’s and where the technology is. We aren’t dealing with the Leaf of 6 or 7 years ago. You can now buy a car with 300 mile range that has the ability to have an initial recharge rate of 1000MPH. With that sort of charge rate, worrying about taking a road trip is out the window.

Every morning I leave the house with a full “tank of gas” for a nominal price since it is charged at off peak times. With 300 mile range, there isn’t even a thought about having to plug in for in city driving etc although in most medium to large cities, there are plenty of options.

I will say that manufactures are playing catch up with Tesla when it comes to fast recharging etc so I think that will limit the demand for say an Etron until they can make a road trip more viable, but for in city driving there is no downside that I can think of. 

I have had 5 friends get the Model 3 over the last 15 months or so and not one of them has a desire to go back.

This would be a great idea for a separate thread.  Damn near all of us are invested in oil including me though I backed it off lately.  I know I talk out both sides of my mouth on the subject but I am a realist.  I own quite lot of BP and an ETF.  But sticking my head in the sand isn't sound investing.  I have no plan to buy and hold this into the dirt.  There is a LOT of biased reading on the internet.  Oil demand will grow, and it seems supply will easily outpace it.  My opinions are not anecdotal, they are a result of keeping my eyes wide open.  I haven't seen a Tesla on an Iowa road in six months.  I personally know zero people even considering a purchase.  If you can't charge at home it would be a bad idea to own one.  I know that could change fast.  That means very little as they clearly sell very well in more "socialist" states and countries.  Europe is threatening to ban ICE vehicles.  The risk is very real.  No oil major is going bankrupt, but look at their 2019 earnings.  Do you really think you have no risk these stocks drop another 10%+ while we wait for the next black swan event that will likely be temporary?  I don't want to see BP drop to 30 or XOM drop to 50 and stay there.  

Look no further than the Utes.  XEL was about zero renewables a few years ago.  Now they are at 20% already.  All the good Utes are headed in the same direction, almost without exception.  They get it.  Coal is dead and now the fossil fuel is Natty Gas which is just about free and providing no real help to the oil majors operating profit.  They flare it off where it;s legal bacuase it makes little sense to transport it.  That's not very green and that matters. There are countless oil bulls on S.A. and I suspect most of you read their writings.  Ten year price charts lead me to believe they are delusional due to their over exposure to oil.  Gasoline is $2.10 in Iowa today and the economy is doing quite OK IMO.  Haven't seen that for more than a week for about 15 years.  Oversupply seems very real.  That's the real issue IMO.  Feel free to disagree, but most of what I hear was true 10 years ago, and oil majors are not benefiting as far as I can see.  The EV story is equally over optimist IMO, at least in the short term, but the market looks forward.

I don’t doubt rural areas will be the last to adopt EV. If you come to the north side of Atlanta, you would be shocked at how many Model 3s you see. I can’t drive a mile to the grocery store without someone flashing their lights or waving. 

Atlanta does have the infrastructure that some cities no not to handle EV’s. One only need to look at a PlugShare map to see how many destination chargers there are. Plugging in at home is certainly a bonus, but unless you live in a condo or park in a parking garage, there is nothing special needed except a 120v outlet to be able to charge at home and put in more miles than the average commuter does per day.

Until I bought one, I was as apprehensive/skeptical as the next guy, but the two biggest issues that were standing in the way for me were capacity (range) and time to charge. Both of those have basically been solved and at a reasonable price that is only gonna come down. 

Anyway, I don’t want to bog down this thread after this post. All I can say is that I have actually been living the EV experience for about 19 months now on road trips and city driving alike. In a place like Atlanta, 99% of the time it is much more convenient having a Model 3 than a ICE car. That more than makes up for the small amount of extra planning it takes for a road trip.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

added more BMY, GILD, BDX, and took new positions in boring KO and MTN

KO has done very well. Had no idea until today!

I also sold out of UBER after getting in under $27

SKT you still buying it? New 52 week low

Interesting article

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4321747...ike-tanger

(02-07-2020, 11:31 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]SKT you still buying it? New 52 week low

Interesting article

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4321747...ike-tanger

The article is interesting but I can't see how the long term period is positive? With dividends reinvested perhaps?

(02-07-2020, 11:31 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]SKT you still buying it? New 52 week low

Interesting article

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4321747...ike-tanger

Sure. Most of the stuff I buy is not particularly loved by the market at the time I am making the purchase. Sometimes it is a temporary slump or market angst (like picking up FB last June in the $170s), and sometimes it is a more pronounced slump (took BTI, CAH, CVS, and lots of others in my portfolio a long time to get their upward mojo back). 

I also realize that some stuff in my portfolio may ultimately fail. I can accept that risk, due to diversification.

(02-07-2020, 11:26 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]added more BMY, GILD, BDX, and took new positions in boring KO and MTN

KO has done very well. Had no idea until today!

I also sold out of UBER after getting in under $27

May I ask why you sold out of UBER? I got in at around $30 and change, and thinking about holding it long term along with LYFT.
I feel like the maximum pessimism already peaked in 2019 and there isn't much down side left.

Frequent +/- 4% swings are kind of hard to get used to though .

I have been debating to add XOM in my kids account( I am already ankle deep into it in my account) and trying to study on future energy demand outlook and what role oil and natural gas are going to play. ( I am 90% convinced that XOM is a great buy at current prices for the next decade to come,not so sure about the next to next decade).

As part of this research the other name which came up strongly is BP. Found their official channel on YouTube. Here is a link if anyone is interested https://www.youtube.com/user/BPplc. They also have bunch of other links mention on their website which were quite interesting.

What folks here think about BP vs XOM? Also would love to hear some investment worthy renewable energy companies from future growth prospective since that's definitely seems to be an area which will keep growing.

(02-07-2020, 08:05 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]I have been debating to add XOM in my kids account( I am already ankle deep into it in my account) and trying to study on future energy demand outlook and what role oil and natural gas are going to play. ( I am 90% convinced that XOM is a great buy at current prices for the next decade to come,not so sure about the next to next decade).

As part of this research the other name which came up strongly is BP. Found their official channel on YouTube. Here is a link if anyone is interested https://www.youtube.com/user/BPplc. They also have bunch of other links mention on their website which were quite interesting.

What folks here think  about BP vs XOM? Also would love to hear some investment worthy renewable energy companies from future growth prospective since that's definitely seems to be an area which will keep growing.

Maybe transfer some XOM to your kid's account, or do a real quick buy and sell in both accounts so you don't  end up with more XOM unless that's what you really want?  A long term account like that could use some reliable growers, or at least some growth to fund the Div longer term.  

You know my opinion of BP but I'll expand in generalizations.  I haven't looked at updated financials since the latest earnings report.  I do hope to hear dissenting opinions.  I don't come here to get internet high fives lol.  And I am not thrilled with oil at all right now.  You'll have that when the market hates them.  

Haven't read your link yet but I definitely will, but IMO and overall, BP is marginally better for the following reasons, heavy emphasis on my opinion. 

-While they both have good balance sheets, XOM is throwing down on future supply in Africa, as if that is somehow necessary anytime soon.  That mystifies me.  We have large ooil producers off the market due to sanctions. That doesn't last forever. We are late cycle IMO and that balance sheet could suffer some.  All the majors are blowing earnings YOY now.  Maybe they do need more oil next year?  Or are they just helping to drive down oil prices further?  Maybe increase capacity by buying dying small companies for 25% of value.  The little guys with debt are already in trouble and the economy is doing OK.  

-BP is making some investments in green energy.  Bio-fuels, windmills, solar and such.  Yes they are small investments in small companies for now.  Are they doing it because they are London based and forced to for political reasons?  Maybe so, but that is their reality in Europe.  It will be the part of the future that is almost certainly growing.  OMG they are talking about banning ICE vehicles soon.  That's crazy but they may start taxing dirty vehicles.  We'll see.  Now I'm not delusional, these green investments are not going to add much revenue for now.  They can sit on their hands like Ford and GM have done until recently.  Show me some evidence XOM is making a move?  They do have a few cool slides on their website.  The math works for natty gas.  It's free and nothing is more efficient.  But is it just about the math?  A Tesla is about as green as the nearest power plant.  IMO it's a green farce for now and it doesn't seem to matter at all.  I don't think it will matter anytime soon, if ever.

-BP had a horrible accident in the gulf in 2010.  They have been paying off a huge fine since then.  Multli-billions per year.  That cost finally goes under $1B this year.  That's a real big deal.  It's been choking them for a decade.  They had to learn to be operate austere.  That has a lot to do with their conservative CAPEX.  More cash to pay that near 7% Div.  They just raised it again.         
-Final thought, these oil majors all pay awesome Divs currently.  I think it's starting to look a little sketchy if earnings keep dropping.  That is much of why share prices are dropping.  Well that and funds are being pressured to get out of fossil fuels.  More politics but it's our reality.  I don't want to see worldwide industrial production have a recession.  Bottomline is I don't care what any of these majors did the last 30 years.  It means nothing to me now. 

-Need further evidence that making the green transition can be profitable because you are backed politically.  Have a look at most all of the successful UTEs.  Getting greener every year.  Yes they are regulated.  Did you notice how fast coal is dying?  In much of the world oil is soon to face the same pressure IMO.   

-I don't much care what S.A. oil bulls are preaching.  They've been wrong for 10 years and I lost money listening to their advice.  Please somebody tell me why it's different now?  Anybody think I am a lefty DEM yet?  You'd be wrong to think that.  I'm just keeping my eyes wide open, cashing my Div checks from BP and ETF BGR (owns all the majors for diversification), and definitely holding my breath for now. Doesn't matter if I am wrong for a week or a month when oil spikes, and it will. I'm not here for a month.