(03-31-2020, 11:56 AM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 09:31 AM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]Bought WM and added a big position in STOR
Added to IRM and RTN
Has it been a couple weeks already lol. I don't believe your lies anymore. I don't believe mine either. Had to work today. Can't trade 
2 weeks seems like a lifetime. I tried to wait that long and all I could dos is holdout for 3Â
. I'm sure Divmenow meant 2 days lol
Here's my question to all... Everyone was complaining that stocks were
way overvalued back in Jan/Feb but yet many were still buying stocks at or near highs lol.Â
Now you have stocks at reasonable prices. So why not buy now??? The market always looks ahead right? I keep hearing we will be testing the lows, were in a bear market, stocks need to correct more. Blah, blah blah... Do we all have crystal balls? If so they seem to be brokenÂ
I was in that, I wait state. But I'm not waiting if I see opportunities
The truth is no one knows one way or another on here. But history says over time we always come back and eventually will hit all time highs again.
Because the earnings misses will be epic and a lot of companies are taking on enormous debt level that may harm them. Those are the most important reasons to me. History also says bear markets last longer than a couple weeks.
(03-31-2020, 01:10 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]Because the earnings misses will be epic and a lot of companies are taking on enormous debt level that may harm them. Â Those are the most important reasons to me. History also says bear markets last longer than a couple weeks.
This. A few weeks feel like a long time when you watch the market swing back and forth day to day. Our brains are poorly wired to think on timescales more than an arm's length from our current reality.
Weeks are tiny data points in the overall scheme of a bear market. Sure, maybe this one is different from all the rest, and we pop back to all-time highs by June with a V-shaped recovery. It is a possibility. I don't think it is likely. When a phase transition from bull to bear happens (what has been going on the past several weeks), markets are choppy down and up, because price discovery takes time when shifting from one paradigm (all the earnings forecasts that just got thrown out the window) to another (the new earnings forecasts yet to come). Valuation is hard precisely because of uncertainty, but there is no doubting the overall trend of uncertainty.Â
These scenarios typically take more than a year to play out fully. We just experienced the first hill after the initial drop on the rollercoaster. Lots more uncertainty left to drive things up and down for a while.
(03-31-2020, 01:10 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]Because the earnings misses will be epic and a lot of companies are taking on enormous debt level that may harm them. Â Those are the most important reasons to me. History also says bear markets last longer than a couple weeks.
Its like 3 to 5 months lol. The market priced in like 3 years. We already know earnings won’t be anything special for at least 2 quarters. You don’t need to be a genius to figure that outÂ
These companies will be just fine. The government won’t let them fail. At least not the big guys. And the ones that go away will be small companies in your neighborhood. Some retailers like Gap and Macy’s. The movie theaters and things like that. These are different times now. Better buy before you get left behindÂ
Small businesses generate 44% of America's economic activity.
80% of American workers live paycheck to paycheck.
Real wage growth has been stagnant to negative for over 35 years for over 90% of American workers.
Consumer debt as a percentage of GDP has dropped roughly 25% from its all-time highs in 2008 (from 100% to 75%), but is still at historically elevated levels (higher than it was in 2001).
Who buys the stuff from the big guys when the consumer is tapped out?
(03-31-2020, 01:26 PM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 01:10 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]Because the earnings misses will be epic and a lot of companies are taking on enormous debt level that may harm them. Â Those are the most important reasons to me. History also says bear markets last longer than a couple weeks.
Its like 3 to 5 months lol. The market priced in like 3 years. We already know earnings won’t be anything special for at least 2 quarters. You don’t need to be a genius to figure that out These companies will be just fine. The government won’t let them fail. At least not the big guys. And the ones that go away will be small companies in your neighborhood. Some retailers like Gap and Macy’s. The movie theaters and things like that. These are different times now. Better buy before you get left behindÂ
Haha this is fun. I'm just glad I have this forum to read while I'm stuck in the house all dayÂ
That makes sense. I don't' see as many companies going under as to some are saying. Sure some restaurants, maybe some consolidation in the airline industry, entertainment companies. But for the most part companies will come out of it just fine. This isn't the Great Depression lol. I'm sure we will all look back and as always wished we bought in these times. I see so many people, businesses helping companies, employees in these tough times. Look at go me fund. OMG its crazy how many people are giving to help others over the past few weeks. America is great and will be great again. I'm very comfortable buying stocks here. And some i will leave alone lol
Fenders just wants us all to sell because he has all that cash burning a hole in his pocket lol Â
 But the truth is he know's as much as I do as to where we are headed from here. His guess is as good as mineÂ
 haha
What dou buy today Fenders?? Come on dont be shyÂ
(03-31-2020, 01:40 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]Small businesses generate 44% of America's economic activity.
80% of American workers live paycheck to paycheck.
Real wage growth has been stagnant to negative for over 35 years for over 90% of American workers.
Consumer debt as a percentage of GDP has dropped roughly 25% from its all-time highs in 2008 (from 100% to 75%), but is still at historically elevated levels (higher than it was in 2001).
Who buys the stuff from the big guys when the consumer is tapped out?
Again you must think this is the great depression era. This is all short term. Sure we will take hits. But we will always come back from blow, after blows. That's what makes America great, And these small businesses get supported more then you will ever know. My husband own 3 cafe's and our community is a strong one and we give back to them and we can always count on there support. In the past 3 months our traffic sales are down 12% which is not bad. We do what we can to keep our business growing. Delivery is one thing we started. Best of all we have not laid off any employees. Sure we cut hours back. But that's what you do to survive. We will come back strong. Coffee and bakery goods everyone lovesÂ
(03-31-2020, 01:48 PM)stockguru Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 01:40 PM)Otter Wrote: [ -> ]Small businesses generate 44% of America's economic activity.
80% of American workers live paycheck to paycheck.
Real wage growth has been stagnant to negative for over 35 years for over 90% of American workers.
Consumer debt as a percentage of GDP has dropped roughly 25% from its all-time highs in 2008 (from 100% to 75%), but is still at historically elevated levels (higher than it was in 2001).
Who buys the stuff from the big guys when the consumer is tapped out?
Again you must think this is the great depression era. This is all short term. Sure we will take hits. But we will always come back from blow, after blows. That's what makes America great, And these small businesses get supported more then you will ever know. My husband own 3 cafe's and our community is a strong one and we give back to them and we can always count on there support. In the past 3 months our traffic sales are down 12% which is not bad. We do what we can to keep our business growing. Delivery is one thing we started. Best of all we have not laid off any employees. Sure we cut hours back. But that's what you do to survive. We will come back strong. Coffee and bakery goods everyone lovesÂ
I appreciate the sentiment, and believe that long term we will be fine. But, a lot can happen between here and there.Â
I also try my best to invest with data that informs valuation. I can't reliably value future earnings at the moment (no one can). P/E is one of my most important metrics for valuation. There is too much uncertainty at the moment to come up with solid P/E estimates, driven by things like epidemiology, unemployment numbers, government stimulus, supply chain disruptions, demand disruptions, dividend cuts, etc. So, my current strategy is to use new funds in ways that are intended to profit from those trends. Some may work out, others may not.
When I feel like I can reliably value companies again, I will deploy new funds into DGI holdings. I will probably miss the absolute bottom as a result, but am okay with that.
(03-31-2020, 01:26 PM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ] (03-31-2020, 01:10 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]Because the earnings misses will be epic and a lot of companies are taking on enormous debt level that may harm them. Â Those are the most important reasons to me. History also says bear markets last longer than a couple weeks.
Its like 3 to 5 months lol. The market priced in like 3 years. We already know earnings won’t be anything special for at least 2 quarters. You don’t need to be a genius to figure that out These companies will be just fine. The government won’t let them fail. At least not the big guys. And the ones that go away will be small companies in your neighborhood. Some retailers like Gap and Macy’s. The movie theaters and things like that. These are different times now. Better buy before you get left behindÂ
You greatly under-estimate the damage to our economy from the destruction of small business. The GOV can't save them all fast enough so we'll have to hope this economic shutdown ends soon, which frankly I am pessimistic about.  It's going to take longer than 3-5 months to sort this out for most areas of the economy.  The US economy is resilient. We'll recover in the end. I still have most of my core DGI holdings. I have no problem adding or trimming 10% when it makes sense. The only point of that is lowering my basis because I have no hope my port is going straight back up anywhere near our recent ATH. If it happens, great because I am invested heavier than in equities than most here I suspect. You stated a week or two ago you have been trading pretty much completely in and out of the market this year. Why did you do that and expect me to be bullish now? Even "Shorty Otter" still has his DGI port except for a few Div cutters he evicted. I have that same rule. "Pay me or I will dump you" lol.
I'm enjoying the debate Trouble-maker Guru started lol.
I’m not a big trader like lots on here nor do I post much but I see the effects of this virus every day. I’m lucky to still be working like I am. I don’t think we have seen the long term effects of this epidemic. It is literally worldwide, and has dealt a serious blow to the world economy by locking down the developed world. Billions of people not spinning their cog. I only have a little to invest so I’m going to save it for when it will be most effective. Otherwise I’d be riding this all along like lots on here.
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I’m not a big trader like lots on here nor do I post much but I see the effects of this virus every day. I’m lucky to still be working like I am. I don’t think we have seen the long term effects of this epidemic. It is literally worldwide, and has dealt a serious blow to the world economy by locking down the developed world. Billions of people not spinning their cog. I only have a little to invest so I’m going to save it for when it will be most effective. Otherwise I’d be riding this all along like lots on here.
Oops I forgot so say what I did today. I sold my shares of GILD
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