Thread Rating:
  • 5 Vote(s) - 4 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
What Did You Buy Today?
As I said, I sold half of my T on the day of the announcement.
I still have the other half... not sure what to do with that. If I end up selling then it does, for sure, need to go into something else with a decent yield.
Started a new position in MBWM.
(05-21-2021, 11:48 AM)Otter Wrote: I booked a 3% long term capital loss on my T shares.
I made about 5-6%/yr dancing with options the past few years.  I would have been dead even at best otherwise.  The dividend pretty much covered the losses.  Buy and hold was FAR short of most anything else I consider blue chip in my port for years.
(05-21-2021, 12:14 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(05-21-2021, 11:48 AM)Otter Wrote: I booked a 3% long term capital loss on my T shares.
I made about 5-6%/yr dancing with options the past few years.  I would have been dead even at best otherwise.  The dividend pretty much covered the losses.  Buy and hold was FAR short of most anything else I consider blue chip in my port for years.

Yes, if counting dividends and option sales, I'm definitely "ahead" on T overall, but doubt that those paltry gains have outpaced inflation.
(05-11-2021, 09:12 AM)divmenow Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 09:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 09:06 AM)divmenow Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 09:00 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 08:47 AM)divmenow Wrote: Way to go...  Big Grin . Join the ENPH club lol

I also took a new position in PXD thanks to the secondary at $153

I needed to add another name in the sector to go along with CVX and EOG

now the only other sector I'm underweight in is leisure  Big Grin
Dude I am a charter member of ENPH.  I made a few hundred a month the past year selling short puts while it ran.  I have a few short puts that are WAY in the money after this bloodbath.  I can only roll forward so much before I own $140 shares.   Big Grin  I said here many times I was good with adding a real position starting at $125.  If I am honest I need ENPH to head back to $120ish to be back to even.  I wasn;t aggressive enough when it was truly cheap.  I'll add shares to my growthy port in the meantime.

Yeah yeah. What ever floats your boat  Big Grin lol
I am very good with owning ENPH long-term.  How happy I am in the end very much depends on the entry.  We'll see where the bottom is soon enough.

Well me too. Got in at $108.90  Big Grin

This will be a big winner for years to come.  You have to add at some point, so why not today. I don't worry about making a few $ here and there  Big Grin . I'm in to win it lol 

Are we having fun today  Big Grin

(05-21-2021, 12:18 PM)Otter Wrote:
(05-21-2021, 12:14 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(05-21-2021, 11:48 AM)Otter Wrote: I booked a 3% long term capital loss on my T shares.
I made about 5-6%/yr dancing with options the past few years.  I would have been dead even at best otherwise.  The dividend pretty much covered the losses.  Buy and hold was FAR short of most anything else I consider blue chip in my port for years.

Yes, if counting dividends and option sales, I'm definitely "ahead" on T overall, but doubt that those paltry gains have outpaced inflation.
I came around later and missed most of the time T was above 33 consistently.  Like always it's about timing.  If one was extremely patient and only bought sub $28 shares then maybe you are good for a year.  The dividend leads to wishful thinking.  Who knows, maybe T will pop to $40 and everyone who holds is back to even against the SPY.  It's just too easy to find a replacement with a close enough dividend that isn't rearranging the chairs on the debt ship for the foreseeable future.  I have no doubt that T can be a decent swing trade in the future. I am just not sticking around for the dividends and all the rest of the baggage that comes with it.
Just took a new position in SCCO. I like Copper and the future. At least I got a nice dip.

I looked into that MBWM. Nice Bank and looks cheap here. Thinking of buying myself lol
(05-21-2021, 01:11 PM)divmenow Wrote: Just took a new position in SCCO. I like Copper and the future. At least I got a nice dip.

I looked into that MBWM. Nice Bank and looks cheap here. Thinking of buying myself lol

There are a lot of regional banks on the Dividend Contenders list with 10+ years of dividend growth, low payout ratios, meaningful Chowder Numbers, and clean balance sheets.
(05-21-2021, 10:53 AM)Otter Wrote:
(05-21-2021, 06:29 AM)NilesMike Wrote: I would not leave T for dead just quite yet.

"New" T w/o a large part of their debt, focused on T business, along with shares of the new entity may just work out well.

4%+ yield with the offer of growth is not bad.

I'd rather avoid the 16% drop in equity to $25/share (my guess as to where it ends up after slashing its dividend nearly in half). Lots of ETFs and other funds that own T as an aristocrat will be forced to divest, and a number of DGI investors who have relied on T as a big chunk of their income will do the same (likely well in advance, hence the drop from the recent $32+ highs as soon as the merger/spinoff was announced). There will be additional carnage in the stock price when the cut occurs. 

So, I'm out. T is already in third place when it comes to 5G spectrum, and will be playing catch-up for years. Cooking up a merger/spinoff of an asset that was supposed to be a cornerstone of the business model just 18 months ago, and alienating your core shareholders in the process, is a sure sign of management that is inept (at best). I may invest in the HBO Max/Discovery SpinCo as a growth company once it debuts, but T is giving me strong GE/IBM vibes.
Your scenario is not attributing any value for the shares received in the new spinoff?
(05-11-2021, 09:12 AM)divmenow Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 09:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 09:06 AM)divmenow Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 09:00 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 08:47 AM)divmenow Wrote: Way to go...  Big Grin . Join the ENPH club lol

I also took a new position in PXD thanks to the secondary at $153

I needed to add another name in the sector to go along with CVX and EOG

now the only other sector I'm underweight in is leisure  Big Grin
Dude I am a charter member of ENPH.  I made a few hundred a month the past year selling short puts while it ran.  I have a few short puts that are WAY in the money after this bloodbath.  I can only roll forward so much before I own $140 shares.   Big Grin  I said here many times I was good with adding a real position starting at $125.  If I am honest I need ENPH to head back to $120ish to be back to even.  I wasn;t aggressive enough when it was truly cheap.  I'll add shares to my growthy port in the meantime.

Yeah yeah. What ever floats your boat  Big Grin lol
I am very good with owning ENPH long-term.  How happy I am in the end very much depends on the entry.  We'll see where the bottom is soon enough.

Well me too. Got in at $108.90  Big Grin

This will be a big winner for years to come.  You have to add at some point, so why not today. I don't worry about making a few $ here and there  Big Grin . I'm in to win it lol 

Are we having fun today  Big Grin

(05-21-2021, 05:12 PM)NilesMike Wrote:
(05-21-2021, 10:53 AM)Otter Wrote:
(05-21-2021, 06:29 AM)NilesMike Wrote: I would not leave T for dead just quite yet.

"New" T w/o a large part of their debt, focused on T business, along with shares of the new entity may just work out well.

4%+ yield with the offer of growth is not bad.

I'd rather avoid the 16% drop in equity to $25/share (my guess as to where it ends up after slashing its dividend nearly in half). Lots of ETFs and other funds that own T as an aristocrat will be forced to divest, and a number of DGI investors who have relied on T as a big chunk of their income will do the same (likely well in advance, hence the drop from the recent $32+ highs as soon as the merger/spinoff was announced). There will be additional carnage in the stock price when the cut occurs. 

So, I'm out. T is already in third place when it comes to 5G spectrum, and will be playing catch-up for years. Cooking up a merger/spinoff of an asset that was supposed to be a cornerstone of the business model just 18 months ago, and alienating your core shareholders in the process, is a sure sign of management that is inept (at best). I may invest in the HBO Max/Discovery SpinCo as a growth company once it debuts, but T is giving me strong GE/IBM vibes.
Your scenario is not attributing any value for the shares received in the new spinoff?
I am curious what that number gets subtracted from?  I get it Discovery has value but T didn't just conjure up a reshuffle and suddenly the stock is worth 25% more with mostly the same assets with even more total debt post merger.  If that were true the stock wouldn't be lower than pre-announcement.  We'll have a better idea of that number in six months.  Apparently it's going to be a long process.
(05-21-2021, 05:12 PM)NilesMike Wrote:
(05-21-2021, 10:53 AM)Otter Wrote:
(05-21-2021, 06:29 AM)NilesMike Wrote: I would not leave T for dead just quite yet.

"New" T w/o a large part of their debt, focused on T business, along with shares of the new entity may just work out well.

4%+ yield with the offer of growth is not bad.

I'd rather avoid the 16% drop in equity to $25/share (my guess as to where it ends up after slashing its dividend nearly in half). Lots of ETFs and other funds that own T as an aristocrat will be forced to divest, and a number of DGI investors who have relied on T as a big chunk of their income will do the same (likely well in advance, hence the drop from the recent $32+ highs as soon as the merger/spinoff was announced). There will be additional carnage in the stock price when the cut occurs. 

So, I'm out. T is already in third place when it comes to 5G spectrum, and will be playing catch-up for years. Cooking up a merger/spinoff of an asset that was supposed to be a cornerstone of the business model just 18 months ago, and alienating your core shareholders in the process, is a sure sign of management that is inept (at best). I may invest in the HBO Max/Discovery SpinCo as a growth company once it debuts, but T is giving me strong GE/IBM vibes.
Your scenario is not attributing any value for the shares received in the new spinoff?

Not if it is so saddled with debt that it can’t afford to create lots of new, quality content and grow its user base aggressively.

If that happens, SpinCo can probably make the existing catalogue work for a bit, but it is a recipe for long-term failure.
IMHO T is just proving that the G in DGI is as important as the D.
(05-11-2021, 09:12 AM)divmenow Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 09:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 09:06 AM)divmenow Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 09:00 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(05-11-2021, 08:47 AM)divmenow Wrote: Way to go...  Big Grin . Join the ENPH club lol

I also took a new position in PXD thanks to the secondary at $153

I needed to add another name in the sector to go along with CVX and EOG

now the only other sector I'm underweight in is leisure  Big Grin
Dude I am a charter member of ENPH.  I made a few hundred a month the past year selling short puts while it ran.  I have a few short puts that are WAY in the money after this bloodbath.  I can only roll forward so much before I own $140 shares.   Big Grin  I said here many times I was good with adding a real position starting at $125.  If I am honest I need ENPH to head back to $120ish to be back to even.  I wasn;t aggressive enough when it was truly cheap.  I'll add shares to my growthy port in the meantime.

Yeah yeah. What ever floats your boat  Big Grin lol
I am very good with owning ENPH long-term.  How happy I am in the end very much depends on the entry.  We'll see where the bottom is soon enough.

Well me too. Got in at $108.90  Big Grin

This will be a big winner for years to come.  You have to add at some point, so why not today. I don't worry about making a few $ here and there  Big Grin . I'm in to win it lol 

Are we having fun today  Big Grin

(05-21-2021, 05:12 PM)NilesMike Wrote:
(05-21-2021, 10:53 AM)Otter Wrote:
(05-21-2021, 06:29 AM)NilesMike Wrote: I would not leave T for dead just quite yet.

"New" T w/o a large part of their debt, focused on T business, along with shares of the new entity may just work out well.

4%+ yield with the offer of growth is not bad.

I'd rather avoid the 16% drop in equity to $25/share (my guess as to where it ends up after slashing its dividend nearly in half). Lots of ETFs and other funds that own T as an aristocrat will be forced to divest, and a number of DGI investors who have relied on T as a big chunk of their income will do the same (likely well in advance, hence the drop from the recent $32+ highs as soon as the merger/spinoff was announced). There will be additional carnage in the stock price when the cut occurs. 

So, I'm out. T is already in third place when it comes to 5G spectrum, and will be playing catch-up for years. Cooking up a merger/spinoff of an asset that was supposed to be a cornerstone of the business model just 18 months ago, and alienating your core shareholders in the process, is a sure sign of management that is inept (at best). I may invest in the HBO Max/Discovery SpinCo as a growth company once it debuts, but T is giving me strong GE/IBM vibes.
Your scenario is not attributing any value for the shares received in the new spinoff?
This is why I found your arguments unconvincing months back before you flipped.  It was simply a trust issue.  I didn't know how they would screw it up, but the debt could not be corrected quick enough for their past decisions.  I was only using T for income, and you better be nimble or you lose your income.  Nothing has changed.  It took the market half a day to figure out the plan they hatched is nothing but a debt shell game.  If it doesn't work out SpinCo slowly dies with debt, and the mothership ticker survives.  Maybe in five years the yield returns to 7%+?  The SP is likely to languish IMO, and maybe they can even grow the dividend as they transition back to a utility company.  In the meantime apologists will write articles and pretend they somehow invented new growth.  I will be absolutely shocked if T isn't rangebound, with a downward bias within a few quarters.  There are so many alternatives with less downside risk.




Users browsing this thread: 188 Guest(s)