What Did You Buy Today?

[Otter]

(04-24-2021, 03:55 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 01:22 PM)EricL Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 01:03 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I'm incapable of sitting on cash.  Even if the markets are choppy, I still feel it's better going into AT&T then sitting in my bank account.  So, unlike the rest of you, I can't jump every time there is a dip.  I have to wait for my next cash infusion.  Probably May when I sell some company stock assuming the trading window opens then.

I'm the same way. Anytime cash gets over $200 I'm shopping!

(04-24-2021, 11:29 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-24-2021, 05:17 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 12:49 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 12:18 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: He is addicted. He just can't stop.

This is so true  But I always add on significant dips from my top 10 holdings. Even if you consider a $10 dip off the highs ?

And I still have my cash. Just not adding to any new positions unless they fall off the cliff. KMB on list but needs to go lower.

I need a pretty good dip to add more than a few shares.  It's a lot easier after a 10% market pull back because some good stocks will be down 15%+ and that is a solid year in normal times. Trying not to look at every year like 2020.  I may never see another year like that again.

I watch a lot of Fast Graphs videos.  Chuck has 100 examples of lost decades caused by buying when blue chips are trading way above historical valuation and that will happen again.  We are set up for more of that now.

Those lost decades also involved interest rates returning to historical norms. Other than the Fed, large banks that participate in our fractional reserve banking system, and bond funds required to do so by their prospectuses, no one is buying bonds at these yields.

The “risk-free” rate of return is likely to remain effectively zero for a while. I doubt it rises much until at least the middle of the decade. The economy won’t be able to support it until then. The mid-2020s are essentially the mid-1980s from a demographic perspective. At that point, a solid % of Millennials will be in their 40s and peak earning years, just as Boomers were hitting that point in the mid-80s. 

The small comparative size of Gen X has contributed to an economic lull. The past two decades have seen Boomers enter retirement (where people tend to spend/consume less), with not enough peak-earnings consumers to replace them. That dynamic is about to change in a big way.

Type that as many times as you care to but I'm just not hearing it when we got stocks at 150% historical PE.  Fast and sustained growth can get you out of a bad buy if you are holding it long-term.  The majority of my port will be reasonably valued and I'm confident that works out in the end.  We'll revisit this in two years.  I'll be a little careful in the meantime as that is working out fine.  I wasn't even aware a ton of stocks are down 50% the past few months.

Sure. Bull markets typically last six years. There’s usually a dip in the third (but only single-digit %). Historical trends favor the market being substantially higher in 2023 than it is now.

Equities price relative to other assets (treasuries, real estate, gold, cash). Based on where bonds are, and historical norms regarding pricing of the S&P 500 relative to treasuries, there’s a strong argument to be made that the indexes are undervalued right now.

I’m old enough to remember when Ray Dalio said cash is trash last year and got mocked for it, back when the S&P was 25% lower. Anyone who held cash over the same period lost a ton of value. Don’t fight the Fed.