What Did You Buy Today?

[Otter]

(03-20-2020, 12:14 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 11:46 AM)Otter Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 11:31 AM)vbin Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 11:24 AM)Otter Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 10:31 AM)vbin Wrote: Yeah, small cap is done, large and mid next.

I intend to put 50% of my 401k into Small Cap Growth once there are clear signs of a market bottom. That time is not here yet.

Would love to get a signal from u on that. I haven't touched my 401k and Roth IRAs , they are on cruise control. I am still young and learning. But my trade accounts have a bunch of firepower left.

Missed on a few deals though I fee, AER, STWD, HTZ, DCP, WES, and a few others. A bunch are are already 100% up from downs.

My best guess as to point of maximum pessimism is by end of April or early May. We are trending for a huge spike in infections and essentially unmitigated pandemic. Recent "lockdown" measures sound strong, but are actually quite weak compared to what China did in Hubei Province and what Italy has done (weaker than China to date). 

Epidemiologically, it looks like we are headed for a huge, rapid peak that overwhelms the healthcare system for approximately 75-90 days, with the maximum peak occurring at the midpoint of that period. 

Market may continue to drift down or sideways slowly for a while after the peak of the peak, but I think you'll see most of the big drops between now and that late April/early May time period. Afterwards, there will probably be at least slivers of good news on the horizon. 

Am keeping a close eye on it, and will change my opinion if the facts on the ground change.

Agree with you somwhat. I always believed we were in front of a steam roller when this started and the first case was found. But overall and comparatively, people are more self concious, maintain more social distancing here. u.s.a is not as densly populated and have the best brains from the world here. So even the 75% effort of what China did should work.but unfortunately we aren't even at 75% yet.

Italy just reported 5,986 new cases (47,021 total), and 627 new deaths (4,032).

Italy's mitigation measures are far stronger than our lockdowns, have been in place longer, and their case growth is still exponential. There have only been two strategies that have worked so far: (1) extreme quarantine (China/Hubei Province); and (2) early detection through massive testing of population, plus contact tracing and isolation of exposed (South Korea and Singapore). 

We are too far along in our epidemic timeline for option 2 to be workable. Present mitigation measures are insufficient to bend the epidemic curve sufficiently to stop exponential growth. This leaves likely scenarios as either: (1) China-style quarantine to get spread under control, and all of the consequences that go along with that; or (2) effectively uncontrolled spread, and all of the consequences that go along with that. I'm just going by what the epidemiologists and pandemic preparedness experts are reporting. They drove my investment thesis from the start, and will continue to do so. So, if their opinions change, I will invest accordingly.