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03-08-2021, 02:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2021, 02:30 PM by vbin.)
Nothing fenders. This market is nuts on some of the stocks, For ex ccl( I have some actually). Look at how much debt they have + new equity issued.
Oil is still a play as far as I can see. Still hated and reopening is inevitable. This parking lot use to absolutely empty and today it was hard finding a single parking there. Small businesses opening up + people going back to work while oil production still at all time low. ![[Image: fc62b69d8098ec62c6f950fc70415a50.jpg]](https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210308/fc62b69d8098ec62c6f950fc70415a50.jpg)
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(03-08-2021, 02:27 PM)stockguru Wrote: (03-08-2021, 01:56 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-07-2020, 11:15 AM)kblake Wrote: bought WFC, GD, FRT, MO, PM and BRK.B
I'm still holding 48% cash for other opportunities
(03-08-2021, 01:42 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: (03-08-2021, 01:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Somebody explain the re-opening stocks to me. Massive balance sheet damage, dividend eliminated, hoping to make five year ago level profits in 2022. Stocks approaching the top of their pre-Covid range when things weren't all that great for most of them pre-Covid anyway. There are numerous examples and SIX would be one of them. What am I missing?
If the price is close to pre-covid range.
Then I think the play is: everyone is bored and has tons of money. (this part is well supported by the actual numbers)
They will spend it as soon as they get a chance to and buy tons of experiences. So cruises, zoos, disney parks, your six flags, restaurants etc.
It's not a long term play, but rather a "earnings will be crazy for a Q or two" play. Or at least that is my view.
That is some of it. SIX plans to lose big money this year despite reopening. Next year some 2016 earnings. I think it's just zero DD momentum hoping. Restaurants make more sense. The majority maintained some cash flow through this and small competitors died.
Added AAPL-ENPH-TSM-ARKF. Still just nibbling.some of these are newish losing positions now. When is the rotation back to tech scheduled while they scream the DOW is overvalued? I'll be proud of them if they wait a month lol.
AAPL off BIG FROM the highs and CCL continues to go up. Rubbish 
I added 35 more AAPL
May I upgrade that comment to... "this is some BS and I'm not gonna take it much anymore?" 
I don't short much, and I am smart enough not to walk into the teeth of what may me months of euphoria, but it is going to be very tempting when they have an OK earnings report after re-open and announce they need to borrow some more money at what may be a bit higher rates. Its gonna happen. We need to get Eric the debt hawk into this conversation in a few months lol.
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03-08-2021, 02:50 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2021, 02:50 PM by fenders53.)
(03-08-2021, 02:29 PM)vbin Wrote: Nothing fenders. This market is nuts on some of the stocks, For ex ccl( I have some actually). Look at how much debt they have + new equity issued.
Oil is still a play as far as I can see. Still hated and reopening is inevitable. This parking lot use to absolutely empty and today it was hard finding a single parking there. Small businesses opening up + people going back to work while oil production still at all time low.
I was wrong on oil for the short term certainly, and likely longer than that. Somebody will crash the party with some excess supply eventually, but this oil bear says you very likely got time to make some more oil money, and I hope you do. Just keep your head when it looks like we're headed for $150 oil, because we aren't lol.
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(03-08-2021, 02:27 PM)stockguru Wrote: (03-08-2021, 01:56 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-07-2020, 11:15 AM)kblake Wrote: bought WFC, GD, FRT, MO, PM and BRK.B
I'm still holding 48% cash for other opportunities
(03-08-2021, 01:42 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: (03-08-2021, 01:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Somebody explain the re-opening stocks to me. Massive balance sheet damage, dividend eliminated, hoping to make five year ago level profits in 2022. Stocks approaching the top of their pre-Covid range when things weren't all that great for most of them pre-Covid anyway. There are numerous examples and SIX would be one of them. What am I missing?
If the price is close to pre-covid range.
Then I think the play is: everyone is bored and has tons of money. (this part is well supported by the actual numbers)
They will spend it as soon as they get a chance to and buy tons of experiences. So cruises, zoos, disney parks, your six flags, restaurants etc.
It's not a long term play, but rather a "earnings will be crazy for a Q or two" play. Or at least that is my view.
That is some of it. SIX plans to lose big money this year despite reopening. Next year some 2016 earnings. I think it's just zero DD momentum hoping. Restaurants make more sense. The majority maintained some cash flow through this and small competitors died.
Added AAPL-ENPH-TSM-ARKF. Still just nibbling.some of these are newish losing positions now. When is the rotation back to tech scheduled while they scream the DOW is overvalued? I'll be proud of them if they wait a month lol.
AAPL off BIG FROM the highs and CCL continues to go up. Rubbish
I added 35 more AAPL
Why not? I went crazy and added 4 shares :-)
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(03-08-2021, 03:31 PM)MikeWa Wrote: (03-08-2021, 02:27 PM)stockguru Wrote: (03-08-2021, 01:56 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-07-2020, 11:15 AM)kblake Wrote: bought WFC, GD, FRT, MO, PM and BRK.B
I'm still holding 48% cash for other opportunities
(03-08-2021, 01:42 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: (03-08-2021, 01:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Somebody explain the re-opening stocks to me. Massive balance sheet damage, dividend eliminated, hoping to make five year ago level profits in 2022. Stocks approaching the top of their pre-Covid range when things weren't all that great for most of them pre-Covid anyway. There are numerous examples and SIX would be one of them. What am I missing?
If the price is close to pre-covid range.
Then I think the play is: everyone is bored and has tons of money. (this part is well supported by the actual numbers)
They will spend it as soon as they get a chance to and buy tons of experiences. So cruises, zoos, disney parks, your six flags, restaurants etc.
It's not a long term play, but rather a "earnings will be crazy for a Q or two" play. Or at least that is my view.
That is some of it. SIX plans to lose big money this year despite reopening. Next year some 2016 earnings. I think it's just zero DD momentum hoping. Restaurants make more sense. The majority maintained some cash flow through this and small competitors died.
Added AAPL-ENPH-TSM-ARKF. Still just nibbling.some of these are newish losing positions now. When is the rotation back to tech scheduled while they scream the DOW is overvalued? I'll be proud of them if they wait a month lol.
AAPL off BIG FROM the highs and CCL continues to go up. Rubbish
I added 35 more AAPL
Why not? I went crazy and added 4 shares :-)
I'm not so convinced AAPL is a crazy low can't resist bargain here, but I nibble anyway. I'm confident enough if I don't get excited about owning it, I can leave later this year with at least a small profit. If AAPL is in trouble, tech is in real trouble. They have enough cash to not be overly concerned with interest rates. Some of their suppliers are sure getting whacked so they may not be so immune to rates.
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(03-08-2021, 02:50 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (03-08-2021, 02:29 PM)vbin Wrote: Nothing fenders. This market is nuts on some of the stocks, For ex ccl( I have some actually). Look at how much debt they have + new equity issued.
Oil is still a play as far as I can see. Still hated and reopening is inevitable. This parking lot use to absolutely empty and today it was hard finding a single parking there. Small businesses opening up + people going back to work while oil production still at all time low.
I was wrong on oil for the short term certainly, and likely longer than that. Somebody will crash the party with some excess supply eventually, but this oil bear says you very likely got time to make some more oil money, and I hope you do. Just keep your head when it looks like we're headed for $150 oil, because we aren't lol.
Yeah, I am not putting big in oil anymore. Selling covered call and buying leap calls with that money.
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$70 oil should be the near term top.
Don't ask how I know.
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(05-07-2020, 11:15 AM)kblake Wrote: bought WFC, GD, FRT, MO, PM and BRK.B
I'm still holding 48% cash for other opportunities
(03-08-2021, 04:02 PM)vbin Wrote: (03-08-2021, 02:50 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (03-08-2021, 02:29 PM)vbin Wrote: Nothing fenders. This market is nuts on some of the stocks, For ex ccl( I have some actually). Look at how much debt they have + new equity issued.
Oil is still a play as far as I can see. Still hated and reopening is inevitable. This parking lot use to absolutely empty and today it was hard finding a single parking there. Small businesses opening up + people going back to work while oil production still at all time low.
I was wrong on oil for the short term certainly, and likely longer than that. Somebody will crash the party with some excess supply eventually, but this oil bear says you very likely got time to make some more oil money, and I hope you do. Just keep your head when it looks like we're headed for $150 oil, because we aren't lol.
Yeah, I am not putting big in oil anymore. Selling covered call and buying leap calls with that money.
That's an interesting method. If your shares blow past the strike you might have some profitable leaps.
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Added to AI, LDOS, and PLTR this morning.
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Sold IP. It's been a great ride but it's ran too fast for what it is. Gathering cash for a new investment project. Only 15 minutes from a new Port ATH, or am I?
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Sold out of LYB for a 25% gain. With oil spiking, their input costs go up. Have learned to take profits on cyclicals in the basic materials sector.
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03-09-2021, 10:56 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-09-2021, 11:02 AM by fenders53.)
(03-09-2021, 10:46 AM)Otter Wrote: Sold out of LYB for a 25% gain. With oil spiking, their input costs go up. Have learned to take profits on cyclicals in the basic materials sector.
Couldn't agree more and it doesn't matter much what the commodity is, or the dependent cyclical. Buy when nobody wants them, grab a dividend or three and don't be greedy if you get a couple "normal" years of share price run in a hurry. I've been on both sides of this decision for better and worse.
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