What Did You Buy Today?

[fenders53]

History is valuable but we haven't seen a $28T deficit, a government that thinks we still need more juice, and close enough to zero interest rates. Not to mention a pandemic that we hope is over worldwide soon. It will be in textbooks how this plays out. It's just been a game of extremes with all that has transpired. I'm not suggesting any rash measures should take place. I'm not sure if "don't worry be happy" is a valid strategy either and that is pretty much what a lot of smart people are saying. FED won't do that forever of course and the market will get spooked at the first sign of any corrective measures at all. I'll get my choppy market sooner or later. If I don't, well I am already invested. This is the most interesting economy I have ever lived through.

[vbin]

(06-14-2021, 03:29 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [quote pid='26739' dateline='1623701480']
Why would fed try to should inflation?

Because economies blow up with unchecked inflation?  I was young but the 1970's sucked.  Certain economic statistics have to stay in a reasonable range or it's trouble before long.  Inflation, unemployment and interest are among those important things.
[/quote]Yeah too much inflation is bad too but then fed isn't some evil force who wants to destroy economy or America. They would accept and act if their target is met. That's doesn't sound like a valid reason why fed deliberately would want to hide inflation.

[Otter]

Don't worry be happy is well-supported by evidence. Roughly 10% average annualized returns on the S&P 500 going back a century, through every conceivable market condition and a World War.

[Otter]

Although your typical investor on this board is not mentally wired to not worry and be happy. It's one of the reasons we are investors/planners. It can make accepting the overwhelming statistical evidence difficult.

The true don't worry be happy types end up with no retirement savings.

[fenders53]

[quote pid='26744' dateline='1623703374']

(06-14-2021, 03:29 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [quote pid='26739' dateline='1623701480']
Why would fed try to should inflation?

Because economies blow up with unchecked inflation?  I was young but the 1970's sucked.  Certain economic statistics have to stay in a reasonable range or it's trouble before long.  Inflation, unemployment and interest are among those important things.
[/quote]

The 1970s were a unique combination of Nixon taking the Dollar out of Bretton Woods to create the Petrodollar in 1971, and an exogenous shock to the entire economy from the OPEC embargo suddenly raising the price of every conceivable input for sustained periods.

The temporary supply chain disruptions from Covid are not in the same ballpark.

Also, the thought that capital intensive industries like agriculture/mining/etc. are going to perform better than other equities in a sustained inflationary environment is laughable. Find a cash-flow positive software company with solid double-digit YoY growth figures, and that's what will really shine. Low overhead and high margins will continue to outperform. Don't let CNBC scare pieces trick you into buying low-growth commodities while they are high.
[/quote]
How about I remain diversified like I always strive for?  I highly doubt I own as many commodity based stocks as you do unless you've done a lot of selling lately.   I bought the bottom in lumber in early 2020 and have sold.  I still own some gold, silver, copper and oil.  Mostly I just collect put premiums while almost owning them though, including now.

[Otter]

(06-14-2021, 03:59 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [quote pid='26744' dateline='1623703374']

(06-14-2021, 03:29 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [quote pid='26739' dateline='1623701480']
Why would fed try to should inflation?

Because economies blow up with unchecked inflation?  I was young but the 1970's sucked.  Certain economic statistics have to stay in a reasonable range or it's trouble before long.  Inflation, unemployment and interest are among those important things.

The 1970s were a unique combination of Nixon taking the Dollar out of Bretton Woods to create the Petrodollar in 1971, and an exogenous shock to the entire economy from the OPEC embargo suddenly raising the price of every conceivable input for sustained periods.

The temporary supply chain disruptions from Covid are not in the same ballpark.

Also, the thought that capital intensive industries like agriculture/mining/etc. are going to perform better than other equities in a sustained inflationary environment is laughable. Find a cash-flow positive software company with solid double-digit YoY growth figures, and that's what will really shine. Low overhead and high margins will continue to outperform. Don't let CNBC scare pieces trick you into buying low-growth commodities while they are high.
[/quote]
How about I remain diversified like I always strive for?  I highly doubt I own as many commodity based stocks as you do unless you've done a lot of selling lately.   I bought the bottom in lumber in early 2020 and have sold.  I still own some gold, silver, copper and oil.  Mostly I just collect put premiums while almost owning them though, including now.
[/quote]

Remaining diversified is a great plan. By doing so you are likely to track close to the 10% average annualized returns of the S&P 500.

I do it myself. I could probably just stick everything in SPY and forget about it, but that wouldn't be near as fun as trying to pick out value on a month-to-month basis while creating my own roughly identical index fund over time. The results are close enough that I stick with the hobby, because apparently I suffer from a mental illness that makes looking at balance sheets and reading articles on Seeking Alpha fun.

[ken-do-nim]

The money forum that I used to frequent before this one had an "elder statesman" poster who advocated that for at least 80% of investors, they'd be better off just holding SPY.

[fenders53]

(05-11-2021, 09:12 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(05-11-2021, 09:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-11-2021, 09:06 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(05-11-2021, 09:00 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-11-2021, 08:47 AM)divmenow Wrote: Way to go...  . Join the ENPH club lol

I also took a new position in PXD thanks to the secondary at $153

I needed to add another name in the sector to go along with CVX and EOG

now the only other sector I'm underweight in is leisure 

Dude I am a charter member of ENPH.  I made a few hundred a month the past year selling short puts while it ran.  I have a few short puts that are WAY in the money after this bloodbath.  I can only roll forward so much before I own $140 shares.     I said here many times I was good with adding a real position starting at $125.  If I am honest I need ENPH to head back to $120ish to be back to even.  I wasn;t aggressive enough when it was truly cheap.  I'll add shares to my growthy port in the meantime.

Yeah yeah. What ever floats your boat   lol

I am very good with owning ENPH long-term.  How happy I am in the end very much depends on the entry.  We'll see where the bottom is soon enough.

Well me too. Got in at $108.90 

This will be a big winner for years to come.  You have to add at some point, so why not today. I don't worry about making a few $ here and there  . I'm in to win it lol 

Are we having fun today 

(06-14-2021, 04:06 PM)Otter Wrote:

(06-14-2021, 03:59 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [quote pid='26744' dateline='1623703374']

(06-14-2021, 03:29 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [quote pid='26739' dateline='1623701480']
Why would fed try to should inflation?

Because economies blow up with unchecked inflation?  I was young but the 1970's sucked.  Certain economic statistics have to stay in a reasonable range or it's trouble before long.  Inflation, unemployment and interest are among those important things.

The 1970s were a unique combination of Nixon taking the Dollar out of Bretton Woods to create the Petrodollar in 1971, and an exogenous shock to the entire economy from the OPEC embargo suddenly raising the price of every conceivable input for sustained periods.

The temporary supply chain disruptions from Covid are not in the same ballpark.

Also, the thought that capital intensive industries like agriculture/mining/etc. are going to perform better than other equities in a sustained inflationary environment is laughable. Find a cash-flow positive software company with solid double-digit YoY growth figures, and that's what will really shine. Low overhead and high margins will continue to outperform. Don't let CNBC scare pieces trick you into buying low-growth commodities while they are high.

How about I remain diversified like I always strive for?  I highly doubt I own as many commodity based stocks as you do unless you've done a lot of selling lately.   I bought the bottom in lumber in early 2020 and have sold.  I still own some gold, silver, copper and oil.  Mostly I just collect put premiums while almost owning them though, including now.
[/quote]

Remaining diversified is a great plan. By doing so you are likely to track close to the 10% average annualized returns of the S&P 500.

I do it myself. I could probably just stick everything in SPY and forget about it, but that wouldn't be near as fun as trying to pick out value on a month-to-month basis while creating my own roughly identical index fund over time. The results are close enough that I stick with the hobby, because apparently I suffer from a mental illness that makes looking at balance sheets and reading articles on Seeking Alpha fun.
[/quote]
We all enjoy this process.  I also enjoy arguing with you to.    

I had intended to go 60/40 by next year but I see very little chance I will play with bonds soon.  If I could get  4% yield and just close my eyes to bond capital loss I would, but I think there will be a better year for that.  I have beaten the market by a margin this year and I had too much cash at times.  Last year I would have been better off indexing.  I believe I am set up to make it almost impossible I take a bigger beating than SPY, yet it happened last spring.  

I am sitting on a nice lead in 2021.  A lead I didn't expect last fall.  My spec plays will be a small % of my port until the economy has a little time to seek something closer to "normal".

[fenders53]

(06-14-2021, 04:13 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: The money forum that I used to frequent before this one had an "elder statesman" poster who advocated that for at least 80% of investors, they'd be better off just holding SPY.

Their is compelling evidence to suggest that is true.  It applies to mutual fund managers as well. 

[ken-do-nim]

(02-25-2021, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(02-25-2021, 10:00 AM)divmenow Wrote: Bought some LDOS. Between the earnings miss and short report I haven’t seen it this low in a while. So I said why not lol. You in on this one too Fenders ?

I haven't researched it.  Hadn't heard of it until you and Otter were discussing it last week.  I am trying to not add too many more new names.  We'll see how long that lasts. 

What I need is for tech to get hammered for real again, but this market is resilient.

Very small trades this morning.  Added a few shares to DG-ARKF  Sold a few SLV puts.

(06-14-2021, 03:45 PM)ChadR Wrote: Thanks Fenders.  The wife and I will enjoy a much needed vacation.  Expect it to still be here and hopefully giving out lots of bargains when we get back.

10 days in Mexico wow!  I haven't gone on vacation that long for ... gosh 5 years.  I hope you get to see Chichen Itza.  I went about 20 years ago and it's a really amazing ancient site.

[ken-do-nim]

I'm going to shake things up a bit today in the Taxable account. I really want to get to $6000 annually in dividends which comes out to, on average, $500/month, which is the amount I want to spend on vacations per year now that Covid is largely over (at least in America). This means I need to cut out some of the pure growth and low yield equities I have. The ROTH is my pure growth strategy home anyway. I believe this means I need to reach an account yield of 3.125%.

[ken-do-nim]

(06-14-2021, 04:24 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(06-14-2021, 04:13 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: The money forum that I used to frequent before this one had an "elder statesman" poster who advocated that for at least 80% of investors, they'd be better off just holding SPY.

Their is compelling evidence to suggest that is true.  It applies to mutual fund managers as well. 

(06-15-2021, 08:14 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I'm going to shake things up a bit today in the Taxable account.  I really want to get to $6000 annually in dividends which comes out to, on average, $500/month, which is the amount I want to spend on vacations per year now that Covid is largely over (at least in America).  This means I need to cut out some of the pure growth and low yield equities I have.  The ROTH is my pure growth strategy home anyway.  I believe this means I need to reach an account yield of 3.125%.

Oh my goodness that was fun!  Too many trades to list, suffice it to say the overall outcome is:
1. Lowest full position in the taxable account is now $2630.
2. E*Trade's estimated annual income is up to $5398.74.  Still $600 to go but that's still a lot of vacationing
3. The only non-dividend producer stock I kept was Air BnB.  I will get Ford, Boeing, and others after I've reached my dividend producing goal.
4. The only other stock with < 1% dividend is Sherwin Williams.
5. Started new positions in Starbucks & British Tobacco.
6. Closed out HPQ even though it has a decent dividend; I will definitely return to it.
7. I lowered VOO to 1 share; it's just there now as a performance benchmark. Added SPUU as well as a benchmark; it's a VOO x2 ETF. So I have VOO (x1), SPUU (x2), SPXL (x3) which I can benchmark all the other equities against.