What Did You Buy Today?

[fenders53]

(04-23-2021, 12:18 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: He is addicted. He just can't stop.

I like sparring with him for our entertainment.  He rarely lasts 72HRs after a table pounding prediction before he jumps back in or out.    Seriously though I know he is keeping plenty of cash and so am I.  This market is all set up to run some but politicians throw water on the bonfire every week.  To be fair here is my prediction....

The market choppiness I expected months ago is finally here.  We are stuck in a range for the major indexes.  If it runs or pulls back 5% in a hurry it will move back to the middle ground within the month.  That doesn't end until political uncertainty ends.  The market doesn't like uncertainty for sure.  Taxes aren't going to double, and trillions of new printed money won't either without some taxes.  

I am hopeful we are up 5% by November because the economy climbed the wall of worry.  I'll do my best to make 10% playing the swings with part of my port.  You won't catch me real deep in high PEs with more than the small speculative part of my port.  My option selling game scores good enough on a constant modest trading range if I don't get short term scared.  This isn't 2020.  If the market tries to fly some politician will clip the it's wings.

[ken-do-nim]

I'm incapable of sitting on cash. Even if the markets are choppy, I still feel it's better going into AT&T then sitting in my bank account. So, unlike the rest of you, I can't jump every time there is a dip. I have to wait for my next cash infusion. Probably May when I sell some company stock assuming the trading window opens then.

[fenders53]

(04-23-2021, 12:18 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: He is addicted. He just can't stop.

(04-23-2021, 01:03 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I'm incapable of sitting on cash.  Even if the markets are choppy, I still feel it's better going into AT&T then sitting in my bank account.  So, unlike the rest of you, I can't jump every time there is a dip.  I have to wait for my next cash infusion.  Probably May when I sell some company stock assuming the trading window opens then.

Yes CD rates are no good.  Some of us are regularly selling puts on the high div stuff but the div is just a consolation prize if we get stuck owning it for few months.  Stuck in cash for weeks but the option premiums are typically 2-3X my dividends over the course of a year, and sometimes I get the dividend too.  Won't be this easy in a bear market.  I'll just collect dividends then.  When the cash comes off the bench it's 1-4% now and not waiting for an ex-Div or pay date.  Rinse and repeat next month or next week if the market cooperates.

[EricL]

(04-23-2021, 01:03 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I'm incapable of sitting on cash.  Even if the markets are choppy, I still feel it's better going into AT&T then sitting in my bank account.  So, unlike the rest of you, I can't jump every time there is a dip.  I have to wait for my next cash infusion.  Probably May when I sell some company stock assuming the trading window opens then.

I'm the same way. Anytime cash gets over $200 I'm shopping!

[fenders53]

(04-23-2021, 01:22 PM)EricL Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 01:03 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I'm incapable of sitting on cash.  Even if the markets are choppy, I still feel it's better going into AT&T then sitting in my bank account.  So, unlike the rest of you, I can't jump every time there is a dip.  I have to wait for my next cash infusion.  Probably May when I sell some company stock assuming the trading window opens then.

I'm the same way. Anytime cash gets over $200 I'm shopping!

That is generally a good strategy in the accumulation years.  Having zero cash now would stress me because I don't have a bi-weekly infusion to make it feel a little better.  Not being able to grab deals sucks later in life.

[vbin]

KMB looks interesting( not cheap yet). Good for selling puts I guess. I hope Monday is red and I can sell puts.

Almost sold a lmt put today and then decided not to. I have decent exposure in defense plus a gd put sold.

Sold some CC on VZ.
Bought back an abnb put and sold another expiring in 2 weeks. My abnb long put expired worthless

[fenders53]

(04-23-2021, 12:49 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 12:18 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: He is addicted. He just can't stop.

This is so true  But I always add on significant dips from my top 10 holdings. Even if you consider a $10 dip off the highs ?

And I still have my cash. Just not adding to any new positions unless they fall off the cliff. KMB on list but needs to go lower.

I need a pretty good dip to add more than a few shares.  It's a lot easier after a 10% market pull back because some good stocks will be down 15%+ and that is a solid year in normal times. Trying not to look at every year like 2020.  I may never see another year like that again.

I watch a lot of Fast Graphs videos.  Chuck has 100 examples of lost decades caused by buying when blue chips are trading way above historical valuation and that will happen again.  We are set up for more of that now.

[Otter]

(04-24-2021, 05:17 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 12:49 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 12:18 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: He is addicted. He just can't stop.

This is so true  But I always add on significant dips from my top 10 holdings. Even if you consider a $10 dip off the highs ?

And I still have my cash. Just not adding to any new positions unless they fall off the cliff. KMB on list but needs to go lower.

I need a pretty good dip to add more than a few shares.  It's a lot easier after a 10% market pull back because some good stocks will be down 15%+ and that is a solid year in normal times. Trying not to look at every year like 2020.  I may never see another year like that again.

I watch a lot of Fast Graphs videos.  Chuck has 100 examples of lost decades caused by buying when blue chips are trading way above historical valuation and that will happen again.  We are set up for more of that now.

Those lost decades also involved interest rates returning to historical norms. Other than the Fed, large banks that participate in our fractional reserve banking system, and bond funds required to do so by their prospectuses, no one is buying bonds at these yields.

The “risk-free” rate of return is likely to remain effectively zero for a while. I doubt it rises much until at least the middle of the decade. The economy won’t be able to support it until then. The mid-2020s are essentially the mid-1980s from a demographic perspective. At that point, a solid % of Millennials will be in their 40s and peak earning years, just as Boomers were hitting that point in the mid-80s. 

The small comparative size of Gen X has contributed to an economic lull. The past two decades have seen Boomers enter retirement (where people tend to spend/consume less), with not enough peak-earnings consumers to replace them. That dynamic is about to change in a big way.

[fenders53]

(04-23-2021, 01:22 PM)EricL Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 01:03 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I'm incapable of sitting on cash.  Even if the markets are choppy, I still feel it's better going into AT&T then sitting in my bank account.  So, unlike the rest of you, I can't jump every time there is a dip.  I have to wait for my next cash infusion.  Probably May when I sell some company stock assuming the trading window opens then.

I'm the same way. Anytime cash gets over $200 I'm shopping!

(04-24-2021, 11:29 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-24-2021, 05:17 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 12:49 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 12:18 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: He is addicted. He just can't stop.

This is so true  But I always add on significant dips from my top 10 holdings. Even if you consider a $10 dip off the highs ?

And I still have my cash. Just not adding to any new positions unless they fall off the cliff. KMB on list but needs to go lower.

I need a pretty good dip to add more than a few shares.  It's a lot easier after a 10% market pull back because some good stocks will be down 15%+ and that is a solid year in normal times. Trying not to look at every year like 2020.  I may never see another year like that again.

I watch a lot of Fast Graphs videos.  Chuck has 100 examples of lost decades caused by buying when blue chips are trading way above historical valuation and that will happen again.  We are set up for more of that now.

Those lost decades also involved interest rates returning to historical norms. Other than the Fed, large banks that participate in our fractional reserve banking system, and bond funds required to do so by their prospectuses, no one is buying bonds at these yields.

The “risk-free” rate of return is likely to remain effectively zero for a while. I doubt it rises much until at least the middle of the decade. The economy won’t be able to support it until then. The mid-2020s are essentially the mid-1980s from a demographic perspective. At that point, a solid % of Millennials will be in their 40s and peak earning years, just as Boomers were hitting that point in the mid-80s. 

The small comparative size of Gen X has contributed to an economic lull. The past two decades have seen Boomers enter retirement (where people tend to spend/consume less), with not enough peak-earnings consumers to replace them. That dynamic is about to change in a big way.

Type that as many times as you care to but I'm just not hearing it when we got stocks at 150% historical PE.  Fast and sustained growth can get you out of a bad buy if you are holding it long-term.  The majority of my port will be reasonably valued and I'm confident that works out in the end.  We'll revisit this in two years.  I'll be a little careful in the meantime as that is working out fine.  I wasn't even aware a ton of stocks are down 50% the past few months.

[Otter]

(04-24-2021, 03:55 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 01:22 PM)EricL Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 01:03 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I'm incapable of sitting on cash.  Even if the markets are choppy, I still feel it's better going into AT&T then sitting in my bank account.  So, unlike the rest of you, I can't jump every time there is a dip.  I have to wait for my next cash infusion.  Probably May when I sell some company stock assuming the trading window opens then.

I'm the same way. Anytime cash gets over $200 I'm shopping!

(04-24-2021, 11:29 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-24-2021, 05:17 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 12:49 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-23-2021, 12:18 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: He is addicted. He just can't stop.

This is so true  But I always add on significant dips from my top 10 holdings. Even if you consider a $10 dip off the highs ?

And I still have my cash. Just not adding to any new positions unless they fall off the cliff. KMB on list but needs to go lower.

I need a pretty good dip to add more than a few shares.  It's a lot easier after a 10% market pull back because some good stocks will be down 15%+ and that is a solid year in normal times. Trying not to look at every year like 2020.  I may never see another year like that again.

I watch a lot of Fast Graphs videos.  Chuck has 100 examples of lost decades caused by buying when blue chips are trading way above historical valuation and that will happen again.  We are set up for more of that now.

Those lost decades also involved interest rates returning to historical norms. Other than the Fed, large banks that participate in our fractional reserve banking system, and bond funds required to do so by their prospectuses, no one is buying bonds at these yields.

The “risk-free” rate of return is likely to remain effectively zero for a while. I doubt it rises much until at least the middle of the decade. The economy won’t be able to support it until then. The mid-2020s are essentially the mid-1980s from a demographic perspective. At that point, a solid % of Millennials will be in their 40s and peak earning years, just as Boomers were hitting that point in the mid-80s. 

The small comparative size of Gen X has contributed to an economic lull. The past two decades have seen Boomers enter retirement (where people tend to spend/consume less), with not enough peak-earnings consumers to replace them. That dynamic is about to change in a big way.

Type that as many times as you care to but I'm just not hearing it when we got stocks at 150% historical PE.  Fast and sustained growth can get you out of a bad buy if you are holding it long-term.  The majority of my port will be reasonably valued and I'm confident that works out in the end.  We'll revisit this in two years.  I'll be a little careful in the meantime as that is working out fine.  I wasn't even aware a ton of stocks are down 50% the past few months.

Sure. Bull markets typically last six years. There’s usually a dip in the third (but only single-digit %). Historical trends favor the market being substantially higher in 2023 than it is now.

Equities price relative to other assets (treasuries, real estate, gold, cash). Based on where bonds are, and historical norms regarding pricing of the S&P 500 relative to treasuries, there’s a strong argument to be made that the indexes are undervalued right now.

I’m old enough to remember when Ray Dalio said cash is trash last year and got mocked for it, back when the S&P was 25% lower. Anyone who held cash over the same period lost a ton of value. Don’t fight the Fed.

[Otter]

I’ve said more than once this will be the most hated bull market in history. 2009-2020 will remain the second most hated.

If Boomers were around for it in appreciable numbers, the next 20 years are likely to be the most hated secular bull market in history. Last demographic shot in the arm currently on the horizon for the economy. Tech advances will also easily rival those of the 80s/90s in terms of pace of economic/productivity acceleration.

Macro factors point to a boom, which can be a hard mindset to switch into after the 2000s were a lost decade and 2010s were mostly digging out of a hole.

[Otter]

Inflation is also bullish for equities (stagflation is not).

If you think inflation is a risk due to rapid economic growth, equities are a great place to be. All else being equal (demand for equities, earnings, etc), as the value of cash decreases, it takes more of it to buy the same equity value that it used to before the new money was created. Stock prices have to go up just to tread water, and up a lot to reflect any real gains. Equities can even go up and lose value on a real basis.