04-17-2021, 12:45 PM
(04-17-2021, 10:28 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(04-17-2021, 10:00 AM)Otter Wrote:AMZN was an online bookstore at IPO and ran up with the trash. Might as well have been Door Dash. The big hopes and dreams were executed just a few years later and IIRC the stock had fallen 95%. I had 5+ years to figure it out and was shopping there seriously. It's my biggest miss because it looks so obvious now, or even 15 years ago.(04-17-2021, 04:24 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(04-16-2021, 10:43 PM)vbin Wrote: Someone I know lost money shorting tesla this year but guess what they made more money than that shorting arkk.Let the market pull back only 20% and the shorts will be ruthless. So many MOMO stocks have the potential to pull back 75%. Look how easily stocks like ENPH and PLTR pulled back 40%. These are the ones people think have a strong future. It will be ugly for the hype stories. Some of the reopening stocks will eventually be crushed if our economy fails to be strong for years. The market will sort out the weak ones eventually. I still think it is a ways off but some of the hedge funds will finally have their year.
Bought sunrun put.
PLTR volatility doesn't bother me. Every valuation that is tossed around assumes that the market for their services is fully mature and will grow in line with other mature sectors of the economy. Their total addressable market, to use a buzzword, is the entirety of government and private enterprise. In 20 years there won't be any major companies that don't analyze/mine all of their data to increase productivity and EPS. The ones that don't will end up like the companies that thought ecommerce was a passing fad.
The size of the market will be just as big as what AMZN and GOOG ended up addressing. Early analyst coverage of those companies often made the mistake of evaluating their expected growth by looking at the size of the markets they served as they existed at that time, and assuming that growth in those markets was going to look like growth in other sectors of the economy.
PLTR is already also deeply embedded with three-letter agencies, and those relationships will remain in place. Once you are part of the national security infrastructure, the government has a stake in keeping you afloat. Their tech and user interface is second to none in the space. So, first mover advantage, government backing, 40+% revenue gains in the private sector year-on-year, into a market that will likely be one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy over the next several decades.
I didn't have meaningful funds to deploy into the market when AMZN and GOOG made their debuts. I have made an outsized bet on PLTR. I will be fine if the position goes to zero, and my investing goals should statistically be met from my other investments, but if the company and market for its services perform as I expect, I expect to be fully retired from the proceeds of that PLTR position within 15 years. Told myself that if I ever saw an investing opportunity that I thought rivaled AMZN and GOOG when they first listed, that I would throw an outsized bet at it. No risk, no reward.
I wasn't trashing PLTR. I've been selling puts for months trying to get my price. I am willing to be long and make some money on the drop. Actual point was the company is real and it still dipped 40% while all the indexes are setting new ATHs. ENPH is quite profitable with a 150+ PE and it got slammed too. This is the quality Momo stuff. The meme stuff can easily drop 75%. No gambling lessons will be learned until this occurs. That's the stuff that gets your margin account cashed out and they send you a bill for the balance due.
Agree that AMZN wasn’t obvious when it first launched, but its transition to a cloud services/ecommerce services juggernaut was pretty clear by the mid-2000s.
AMZN as we currently understand it as a company didn’t exist until 2005, when AWS launched. It was creating/expanding that market around the same time GOOG went IPO. Web 2.0 turned out to be a lot more profitable than the original dotcom boom.
Data analytics and AI aren’t new, just as MP3 players weren’t new when iPods launched, or smartphones when the iPhone launched. AAPL just got it right and exploded the market. The network effect is also extremely important to analytics and AI companies. The more quality and unique data sets your software has access to, the better and faster your software improves (similar to Moore’s Law in the chip architecture space). PLTR has a reserved seat at the table with the largest aggregator of data in the world: the U.S. government. Their software is good, easy to use, the margins are ridiculously fat, and their current focus is getting it to run on widely deployed cloud/data infrastructure (like AWS).
Going to be a massive part of the economy, but largely invisible. Companies will report increased sales, improved margins, lowered overhead, and many other positives, as they typically do in their annual reports, but they probably won’t be writing paragraphs about how analytics helped them identify trends in data that led to X amount of increased profits or Y amount of reduced costs. PLTR will have the receipts, though, and can show each customer how much incremental revenue is being generated vs. cost of the service.
Just put a bunch of names in a hat and play them lol