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03-20-2020, 12:22 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2020, 12:24 PM by Otter.)
(03-20-2020, 12:14 PM)vbin Wrote: (03-20-2020, 11:46 AM)Otter Wrote: (03-20-2020, 11:31 AM)vbin Wrote: (03-20-2020, 11:24 AM)Otter Wrote: (03-20-2020, 10:31 AM)vbin Wrote: Yeah, small cap is done, large and mid next.
I intend to put 50% of my 401k into Small Cap Growth once there are clear signs of a market bottom. That time is not here yet.
Would love to get a signal from u on that. I haven't touched my 401k and Roth IRAs , they are on cruise control. I am still young and learning. But my trade accounts have a bunch of firepower left.
Missed on a few deals though I fee, AER, STWD, HTZ, DCP, WES, and a few others. A bunch are are already 100% up from downs.
My best guess as to point of maximum pessimism is by end of April or early May. We are trending for a huge spike in infections and essentially unmitigated pandemic. Recent "lockdown" measures sound strong, but are actually quite weak compared to what China did in Hubei Province and what Italy has done (weaker than China to date).
Epidemiologically, it looks like we are headed for a huge, rapid peak that overwhelms the healthcare system for approximately 75-90 days, with the maximum peak occurring at the midpoint of that period.
Market may continue to drift down or sideways slowly for a while after the peak of the peak, but I think you'll see most of the big drops between now and that late April/early May time period. Afterwards, there will probably be at least slivers of good news on the horizon.
Am keeping a close eye on it, and will change my opinion if the facts on the ground change.
Agree with you somwhat. I always believed we were in front of a steam roller when this started and the first case was found. But overall and comparatively, people are more self concious, maintain more social distancing here. u.s.a is not as densly populated and have the best brains from the world here. So even the 75% effort of what China did should work.but unfortunately we aren't even at 75% yet.
Italy just reported 5,986 new cases (47,021 total), and 627 new deaths (4,032).
Italy's mitigation measures are far stronger than our lockdowns, have been in place longer, and their case growth is still exponential. There have only been two strategies that have worked so far: (1) extreme quarantine (China/Hubei Province); and (2) early detection through massive testing of population, plus contact tracing and isolation of exposed (South Korea and Singapore).
We are too far along in our epidemic timeline for option 2 to be workable. Present mitigation measures are insufficient to bend the epidemic curve sufficiently to stop exponential growth. This leaves likely scenarios as either: (1) China-style quarantine to get spread under control, and all of the consequences that go along with that; or (2) effectively uncontrolled spread, and all of the consequences that go along with that. I'm just going by what the epidemiologists and pandemic preparedness experts are reporting. They drove my investment thesis from the start, and will continue to do so. So, if their opinions change, I will invest accordingly.
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VBIN, I just read the TX Railroad Commission which regulates TX oil industry, is reaching out to OPEC for negotiations. Pretty sure CARTELS are illegal in the US. I don't know how you even begin to legally regulate US production when you have small companies facing bankruptcy. I am thinking they would have to play the environmental card and outlaw flaring or something similar. The global recovery would benefit from continued free oil so this is going to be very interesting if meetings do happen. I still have a bit of oil in my "retirement boat account" so I'm on your side. 
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Stay far away from retail REITs. Doesn't matter what the contract says about "act of God". The landlord will negotiate a deep discount, or they can try to collect in BK proceedings. SPG is on my watch list but I expect it will be chopped in half yet again from here. This is going to look like the oil sector in a month.
And PEP for the end of the day. Last few weeks feel like Christmas!
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(03-20-2020, 01:09 PM)fenders53 Wrote: VBIN, I just read the TX Railroad Commission which regulates TX oil industry, is reaching out to OPEC for negotiations. Pretty sure CARTELS are illegal in the US. I don't know how you even begin to legally regulate US production when you have small companies facing bankruptcy. I am thinking they would have to play the environmental card and outlaw flaring or something similar. The global recovery would benefit from continued free oil so this is going to be very interesting if meetings do happen. I still have a bit of oil in my "retirement boat account" so I'm on your side.
@fenders53 I need a bit more education on TX railroad commission, definitely going to read about it. Would appriciate your thoughts on the outcome.
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(03-20-2020, 01:31 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Stay far away from retail REITs. Doesn't matter what the contract says about "act of God". The landlord will negotiate a deep discount, or they can try to collect in BK proceedings. SPG is on my watch list but I expect it will be chopped in half yet again from here. This is going to look like the oil sector in a month.
SPG isn't the right choice either in my opinions. Malls are dead or on decline all over the country.
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(03-20-2020, 01:35 PM)vbin Wrote: (03-20-2020, 01:09 PM)fenders53 Wrote: VBIN, I just read the TX Railroad Commission which regulates TX oil industry, is reaching out to OPEC for negotiations. Pretty sure CARTELS are illegal in the US. I don't know how you even begin to legally regulate US production when you have small companies facing bankruptcy. I am thinking they would have to play the environmental card and outlaw flaring or something similar. The global recovery would benefit from continued free oil so this is going to be very interesting if meetings do happen. I still have a bit of oil in my "retirement boat account" so I'm on your side.
@fenders53 I need a bit more education on TX railroad commission, definitely going to read about it. Would appriciate your thoughts on the outcome.
The railroad commission is the GOV authority for TX oil as weird as that sounds. It's been that way since the boom years decades ago when Texans were wrecking the market with too much oil. My thoughts on the outcome is this will be very eventful and there WILL be lawsuits if you cause small frackers to go out of business. My wildest guess is they outlaw flaring for the good of the CO2 fight if they want to slow down unnecessary production. Price fixing is illegal so they will have to hit it from a different angle.
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Yep, as one of the first states to produce oil in commercial quantities, we have a somewhat archaic regulatory structure here in Texas. After Spindletop and some massive booms/busts in the early 20th Century, the Railroad Commission was put in charge of regulating oil and gas production in the State (it was then the biggest state bureaucracy that provided for lucrative appointments and patronage opportunities, so was a natural fit for our semi-corrupt frontier government).
The Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts has a separate responsibility to collect the severance taxes, but Railroad Commissioner is probably the second most important elected office in Texas, after Lieutenant Governor (our Governor is actually more of a figurehead role, and has very little day-to-day political power).
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(03-20-2020, 01:09 PM)fenders53 Wrote: VBIN, I just read the TX Railroad Commission which regulates TX oil industry, is reaching out to OPEC for negotiations. Pretty sure CARTELS are illegal in the US. I don't know how you even begin to legally regulate US production when you have small companies facing bankruptcy. I am thinking they would have to play the environmental card and outlaw flaring or something similar. The global recovery would benefit from continued free oil so this is going to be very interesting if meetings do happen. I still have a bit of oil in my "retirement boat account" so I'm on your side.
It is interesting that it is the RRC talking to OPEC. I'm not sure that antitrust laws apply to state governments that set regulations. Congress can certainly override through its power to regulate interstate commerce, and the feds could take Texas to court (as I assume that Texas regulators seeking to fix oil prices through production regulations probably runs afoul of at least one existing federal statute), but any of those scenarios would require federal action to stay Texas' hand. Not sure I see that happening under this administration, and I suspect the talks are happening with tacit admin approval. We shall see.
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(03-20-2020, 02:09 PM)Otter Wrote: Yep, as one of the first states to produce oil in commercial quantities, we have a somewhat archaic regulatory structure here in Texas. After Spindletop and some massive booms/busts in the early 20th Century, the Railroad Commission was put in charge of regulating oil and gas production in the State (it was then the biggest state bureaucracy that provided for lucrative appointments and patronage opportunities, so was a natural fit for our semi-corrupt frontier government).
The Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts has a separate responsibility to collect the severance taxes, but Railroad Commissioner is probably the second most important elected office in Texas, after Lieutenant Governor (our Governor is actually more of a figurehead role, and has very little day-to-day political power).
Well I know what state most everyone lives in after today's posts. Not trying to steal anybody's identity here but it does give useful perspective to comments. I don't want TX oil advice from somebody that lives in Paris lol.
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03-20-2020, 03:23 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2020, 03:24 PM by divmenow.)
Who sold BP this week?? It may have been the only stock up today lol
I can’t believe some of the sell offs late in the day on some names. Crazy especially being triple witching Friday!!
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(03-20-2020, 03:23 PM)divmenow Wrote: Who sold BP this week?? It may have been the only stock up today lol
I can’t believe some of the sell offs late in the day on some names. Crazy especially being triple witching Friday!!
I sold a lot of bp and put it all in McD and wen on the low which I sold near the high today. Didn't do the math but may have worked out.
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