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04-29-2020, 04:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-29-2020, 04:40 PM by EricL.)
I wasn't expecting a raise from XOM. My guess is they will raise the 4th quarter payment to keep the annual growth streak alive.
I actually wrote an article about CVX and XOM doing similar things back in 2015, and have a chart included there that shows historical payments.
XOM went 5 quarters between raises in 2006-2007 and routinely went longer than 4 quarters between raises from 1991-2003.
Here is the article:
Chevron Vs. Exxon Mobil: Setting The Dividend Growth Record Straight
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04-29-2020, 05:18 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-29-2020, 05:24 PM by fenders53.)
I am expecting a penny from XOM just in time to save Aristocrat status. Nobody should complain as they are clearly financially engineering the dividend just to keep it alive. The majors are going to take risks just to keep the dividend when they should cut. They'll get by with it if oil prices cooperate in the next six months. It gets sketchy if that doesn't happen IMO. I'll be curious to see the payout ratios after all the majors pay the next div. 200%?
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(04-29-2020, 05:18 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I am expecting a penny from XOM just in time to save Aristocrat status. Nobody should complain as they are clearly financially engineering the dividend just to keep it alive. The majors are going to take risks just to keep the dividend when they should cut. They'll get by with it if oil prices cooperate in the next six months. It gets sketchy if that doesn't happen IMO. I'll be curious to see the payout ratios after all the majors pay the next div. 200%?
Yes. XOM's free cash flow has not supported the dividend for a very long time. You can only cut so much capex, issue new debt, or pray for substantially higher crude prices for so long before that starts to matter. It may not matter this year or next, but eventually the numbers are what they are.
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(04-29-2020, 07:13 PM)Otter Wrote: (04-29-2020, 05:18 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I am expecting a penny from XOM just in time to save Aristocrat status. Nobody should complain as they are clearly financially engineering the dividend just to keep it alive. The majors are going to take risks just to keep the dividend when they should cut. They'll get by with it if oil prices cooperate in the next six months. It gets sketchy if that doesn't happen IMO. I'll be curious to see the payout ratios after all the majors pay the next div. 200%?
Yes. XOM's free cash flow has not supported the dividend for a very long time. You can only cut so much capex, issue new debt, or pray for substantially higher crude prices for so long before that starts to matter. It may not matter this year or next, but eventually the numbers are what they are.
I am guessing all the major have a couple quarters for it to work out. I think they will come out the back end broke. They won't be acquiring any "pennies on the dollar" fire sale assets unless they borrow all of the money. They may do exactly that.
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Well Royal Dutch Shell just dropped a bomb.
I was expecting something along the lines of a 50% div cut somewhere around Q3 this year.
"Starting this quarter, the Board has decided to reduce our quarterly dividend to 16 US cents per share."
So a cut of 66%!
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Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) declares $0.82/share quarterly dividend, 6.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.77.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3567282-ap...vidend-6_5
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Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY) drops 5.9% in premarket trading after temporarily suspending its dividend to preserve liquidity.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3567615-we...production
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(05-01-2020, 08:40 AM)Otter Wrote: Weyerhaeuser (NYSE:WY) drops 5.9% in premarket trading after temporarily suspending its dividend to preserve liquidity.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3567615-we...production
I smelled that one coming. Only a couple more stocks in my port I am pretty sure will cut. WY will be a great buy for somebody, and they'll get their initial shares for 40% off what I paid.
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Baxter (NYSE:BAX) declares $0.245/share quarterly dividend, 11.4% increase from prior dividend of $0.220.
Forward yield 1.12%
Payable July 1; for shareholders of record June 5; ex-div June 4.
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WestRock lowered its annual dividend to $0.80 from $1.86 previously, which means its quarterly dividend was reduced to $0.20 from $0.465.
All you IP holders be careful. They could be next!
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05-05-2020, 10:05 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-05-2020, 10:06 AM by fenders53.)
(05-05-2020, 09:29 AM)divmenow Wrote: WestRock lowered its annual dividend to $0.80 from $1.86 previously, which means its quarterly dividend was reduced to $0.20 from $0.465.
All you IP holders be careful. They could be next!
Why do I feel like I am being trolled. 
Gotta run now. I am liquidating my port and then I'll go hide in the closet. Or I'll just play option tricks and force the market to pay me a couple quarters of dividends the very day they announce a cut. I've done that a few times the past month and re-enter the stock at a marginally better price after the fireworks calm down. It works out often enough to do it.
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PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) declares $1.0225/share quarterly dividend, 7.1% increase from prior dividend of $0.955.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3569571-pe...dividend-7
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