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Interesting comments from Ross Perot Jr, on state of shale production and oil market in general.
He predicts that crude oil prices could go below $40 per barrel, which would shut down 20% to 30% of U.S. shale industry as the declining price makes production too expensive. "I think the world will be shocked how quickly we [shut down production] within Texas," he told CNN...........
But it's not all doom and gloom, according to Perot.
He predicts oil prices will eventually bounce back to about $70 to $80 per barrel over the next two years.
"Things will get back to equilibrium," he told CNN. "The great oil man will continue to move forward ... It's a wonderful time for veteran investors to jump back into the U.S. oil patch."
CNN Money article
I think that a buy of most any sound company in the energy patch is destined to be a big winner in the 2-3 year time frame. The XOM's of the world are going away no time soon! Perhaps better prices will arrive in April/May so will be keeping some powder dry, just in case.
Alex
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Sold my last 60 shares of a very overvalued WM and bought 10 shares of IBM and 24 shares of EMR. Higher dividend % and much better dividend growth rates. Hard not to like this swap.
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I have added to IBM, PSX, and JNJ between yesterday and today.
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T...I'll take that fatty 5.6% divi anyday!
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01-22-2015, 02:37 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2015, 02:41 PM by hendi_alex.)
Looks like I'm back to my old habits, yesterday and today completed another round trip on TNK
Didn't day trade TNK this time, as held the shares from yesterday until today. Didn't net as much as last time, but was a little more eager to take the gain and run. Netted $666(6%) in one day. Don't you just love that number! That is +13% on $11K with total of two day's exposure. I have a core position of TNK which is a longer term holding, but use my cash to trade more actively around that and other core positions. Short term trades for me are usually 3 months to 6 months duration, so am not really used to the market giving me such quick turnover.
As posted earlier, bought BGCP on 1/20 as short term spec above core holding. I didn't like that the company upped its takeover price right after my buy and the share price dipped. Share price is up on today's generally buoyant market. Decided to dump the position for a small profit. Will likely rebuy if the share drops back to $8.05 or less before earnings release date Feb 11th. Really was just dumping the shares, but did net $136 or 1.7% in two days. Paid for our weekly grocery trip today!
Alex
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Started a small position in EMR in my wife's portfolio. Using the last 3 quarters GAAP earnings and adding in the bottom estimate for the latest quarter gives a P/E just under 16. Luckily, with the quick selloff at the opening today, got it for $1 less than my limit order I put in over the weekend.
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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan
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Bought 55 shares CAT @ 79.44 (after fees).
Have been eyeing CAT for a long time now and felt it appropriate to initiate a small position today.
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Got some MSFT on the drop.
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Picked up 100 shares of MSFT today. Total = 900 shares with a basis of $29.38/share for entire holding. Market value =$38,394 and stock basis = $26,445, 5.8% of one of my portfolios. 2 years left to meet my 10 year goal of holding 1000 shares with a basis of <$10.00/share with a yield on basis of >9.0%.
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01-28-2015, 08:13 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2015, 09:13 AM by hendi_alex.)
Strangely stated goal. Having 1000 shares sounds reasonable. But [with <$10 per share basis and yield on basis of >9%] would seem totally out of investor control. Whether that happens or not would seem to result purely from luck. Also I remain a little perplexed by this fuzzy math preoccupation that many have with yield on basis. Wouldn't the goal of holding a long term position involve the stock having to continually pass some currently relevant litmus test, one that suggests the stock is a better current pick than any similar alternative? An example would be that the stock continues to meet five year dividend growth of X%. Or stocks five year average total return remains above 10% per year. If the stock fails to pass the litmus test, then it it time to cut it loose if a better candidate exists, no matter how long current position has been held. There is no reason to keep holding a stock just because it has become a comfortable friend in the portfolio for many years.
Alex
