[quote pid='26796' dateline='1623865713']
Commodities and basic materials are in my lowest circle of trust when it comes t predictable recurring revenues. They are the polar opposite of telcos and utes in that regard. Might as well consult the horoscopes as any quarterly earnings estimates
[/quote]
Mine as well Otter. I've gotten better at winning more often the past few years, but I don't stick around to get the last nickel and that's OK.
"Chemicals" are outside my circle of competency. I made some money in 2020 in CLF but I really didn't know what to expect six months from now. The story changes. I follow the oil story well enough to have a clue what will effect it going forward. I still got beat up in 2015 or whenever last peak ended. I research the heck out of UTEs and renewable energy. I see what's going on in lumber and general building materials at work. I speak to the major vendors almost daily at work and can smell bunk in an analyst report. Doesn't make me a pro commodity trader, but at the very least I know what's going on for the immediate future so it's tradeable. Gold and silver, just a small hedge now, and it will remain small after it's run up for a year. I avoided it completely for 30 years.
I'll stick with my last statement. Most will lose money investing in commodities eventually if they don't wise up on the base commodity and don't lose sight of the fact they are cyclical. I have no inclination to try to be smart on every subject so I can invest in 25 subsectors. It's not necessary.
I hold no ill will towards LYB and hope everyone gets rich if they invest in it.
Commodities and basic materials are in my lowest circle of trust when it comes t predictable recurring revenues. They are the polar opposite of telcos and utes in that regard. Might as well consult the horoscopes as any quarterly earnings estimates
[/quote]
Mine as well Otter. I've gotten better at winning more often the past few years, but I don't stick around to get the last nickel and that's OK.
"Chemicals" are outside my circle of competency. I made some money in 2020 in CLF but I really didn't know what to expect six months from now. The story changes. I follow the oil story well enough to have a clue what will effect it going forward. I still got beat up in 2015 or whenever last peak ended. I research the heck out of UTEs and renewable energy. I see what's going on in lumber and general building materials at work. I speak to the major vendors almost daily at work and can smell bunk in an analyst report. Doesn't make me a pro commodity trader, but at the very least I know what's going on for the immediate future so it's tradeable. Gold and silver, just a small hedge now, and it will remain small after it's run up for a year. I avoided it completely for 30 years.
I'll stick with my last statement. Most will lose money investing in commodities eventually if they don't wise up on the base commodity and don't lose sight of the fact they are cyclical. I have no inclination to try to be smart on every subject so I can invest in 25 subsectors. It's not necessary.
I hold no ill will towards LYB and hope everyone gets rich if they invest in it.