05-05-2021, 07:02 PM
(05-05-2021, 06:00 PM)Otter Wrote:There is really only one time period that was a bad idea, and if you had any investing skills it was clear you shouldn't be over-weight but greed is powerful. I am just lucky I wasn't allowed to do that in my 401K at the time. There were no fund choices called "come on seven", or I likely would have bought some back then.(05-05-2021, 05:52 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(05-05-2021, 05:39 PM)Otter Wrote: DASH is trash. AAPL, ADP, AMZN, BABA, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, ORCL, PLTR, PYPL, SQ, and dozens of other tech companies are not. This isn't the late 90s where almost everything listed on the NASDAQ was a purely speculative play with no profits anywhere to be seen. It's just standard sector rotation.For the rest of our lives, and the market will over-react in both directions along the way like it always has.
Tech should continue to be where the growth is for quite a while. It has been one of the brightest spots in the economy for the past 20 years, and should continue to outperform for decades to come.
Railroads remained a pretty lucrative investment and high-growth industry for roughly a century. Hard to imagine now with industrials being so cyclical, and just following the rest of economic activity around, but industrials were the IT of their day once the U.S. began industrializing in earnest after the Civil War. The industrials boom didn't start to taper off domestically until the 1960s. It succeeded in taking us from a majority rural and agrarian population to a majority urban population with necessary supporting industrial output to sustain that. Took a very long time to build out the infrastructure, and was extremely profitable.
From a long-term perspective, we are still in the first innings of tech being the primary growth engine of our economy. Lots of wealth creation still to go.
This is why I was concerned with Ken's port when he first got here. A port that was 75% tech and mostly triple leveraged. Not many could withstand an actual drawdown without being shaken out, or at least worrying about it all the time. He's clearly a nice guy and I didn't want to "witness" that. It's actually none of my business but glad he added some diversification. Unleveraged chip stocks could pull back another 15%. I don't expect that but they aren't dirt cheap after this pullback.
Over any long-term view, the market is up, and by predictable percentages over decades-long time windows. The drops are brief and essentially meaningless on just about any 10+ year chart when looking at entire indexes.
By 2030 NASDAQ is likely to be somewhere between 30,000 and 45,000
By 2040 probably in the neighborhood of 75,000-110,000
I don't use leverage. Any option I sell is a covered call or cash-secured put. Just a personal preference thing, as I don't like personal debt (and have completely opposite views on America's sovereign debt, but I can't legally print dollars in my basement and force nation states to price the basic input of almost all economic output in those dollars).
I would never fault anyone for skipping on trying to pick winners/losers in the tech space, given how quickly it changes. I would also never fault anyone for having a sizable chunk of their portfolio tied up in QQQ for a few decades. That's probably a really smart move.
