Have to add that humans are emotional and herding creatures. Fear and Greed, Risk on-Risk Off. Follow the money from one sector to another. The market is our collective scoreboard. If we were risk off the wide market indexes will dip. People want cash and JNJ isn't even quite safe enough. Total risk-on mode and a company doesn't even need revenue, let alone profits. The gamblers will herd like sheep into whatever is the flavor of the week. That happened for at least six months. Stocks that are likely worth about zero doubled or more. The pendulum swung the other way and to some degree you have a flight to quality. Every stock that flew high and pulled back 65% will not necessarily recover, but a lot of them will at least bounce. The market is likely to be a little discerning for awhile, or maybe for a long time.
Tech isn't dead, but in the end trash is trash. Valuation does matter eventually. If the company you work for is growing revenues and hopefully earning soon, they will find true value, and may even go parabolic again the next time the market is risk on. FANG stocks just crushed earnings and the market yawned and other indexes hit new highs. That's a solid sign of a rotation. It's also a solid sign we are no longer fully risk on in equities. It's clear some of the speculative money left for crypto, and institutions have pulled some money out of the stock market, at least for now.
Natural resources are safe for now, and have growth potential that is sometimes absent for years. Oil was hated for a couple years and now it looks safe and at least somewhat profitable for years to come. Chip stocks have an uncertain story even though we know the ending will be fine. Solar was on fire and many of the companies will never be profitable. Same with EVs. The money just rotates and if the story is real it will return sooner rather than later. At some point it will be more discerning and separate the strong companies in a sector from the bad. When a sector is hot it almost doesn't even matter how efficient your business is. Even the bad companies will participate to some degree.
That was a long way around saying be patient and don't buy junk you are afraid to hold when the sheep flock somewhere else for a while. Every time the market gets hit hard I am staring at those three stocks in my port wondering what I was thinking when I bought them. It's human nature.
Tech isn't dead, but in the end trash is trash. Valuation does matter eventually. If the company you work for is growing revenues and hopefully earning soon, they will find true value, and may even go parabolic again the next time the market is risk on. FANG stocks just crushed earnings and the market yawned and other indexes hit new highs. That's a solid sign of a rotation. It's also a solid sign we are no longer fully risk on in equities. It's clear some of the speculative money left for crypto, and institutions have pulled some money out of the stock market, at least for now.
Natural resources are safe for now, and have growth potential that is sometimes absent for years. Oil was hated for a couple years and now it looks safe and at least somewhat profitable for years to come. Chip stocks have an uncertain story even though we know the ending will be fine. Solar was on fire and many of the companies will never be profitable. Same with EVs. The money just rotates and if the story is real it will return sooner rather than later. At some point it will be more discerning and separate the strong companies in a sector from the bad. When a sector is hot it almost doesn't even matter how efficient your business is. Even the bad companies will participate to some degree.
That was a long way around saying be patient and don't buy junk you are afraid to hold when the sheep flock somewhere else for a while. Every time the market gets hit hard I am staring at those three stocks in my port wondering what I was thinking when I bought them. It's human nature.