04-25-2021, 10:53 AM
To put it another way, if the worst pandemic in a century that caused the worst unemployment since the Great Depression was good for a 30% drop that lasted a quarter until the Fed turned on a firehose of money, what exactly is the catalyst for a bear market when we are looking at the biggest GDP % growth in 35 years, continued accommodative monetary policy from the Fed, and global reopening that will occur in stages (first movers are USA, UK, and Israel based on % of population vaccinated) well into 2022?
10yr yields were spiking because of anticipated economic growth, which should make its way into corporate earnings. I'd be more concerned if 10yr yields were cratering.
Are there individual stocks that I think are overvalued? Yes. TSLA is one, in my opinion. I've sworn off ever buying TSLA Puts again, though, so won't be making any bets there. Do I think the market itself is overvalued a year after the Fed doubled its balance sheet, with treasuries still having negative real yields, as we head into what looks like a multi-year stretch of promising growth numbers? No.
10yr yields were spiking because of anticipated economic growth, which should make its way into corporate earnings. I'd be more concerned if 10yr yields were cratering.
Are there individual stocks that I think are overvalued? Yes. TSLA is one, in my opinion. I've sworn off ever buying TSLA Puts again, though, so won't be making any bets there. Do I think the market itself is overvalued a year after the Fed doubled its balance sheet, with treasuries still having negative real yields, as we head into what looks like a multi-year stretch of promising growth numbers? No.