03-30-2021, 11:00 AM
The Wiki linked below provides a pretty good overview of just how dominant SpaceX has become in the launch market:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_laun...ompetition
Falcon 9 is currently 37% cheaper than its closest competitor on a payload cost per kg basis. Falcon heavy is 68% cheaper. That's technology SpaceX has already deployed successfully. If they get the kinks worked out on Starship, 99% cheaper.
In 2020, by total number of launches, SpaceX had 43% of the global launch market (this includes state-funded competition in Russia and China, which don't open their markets to launch competition). 48% of the global launch market if weighted by payload mass to orbit. Those numbers will only continue to increase in SpaceX's favor. No one can touch them on cost to orbit, and no one has anything remotely close to competing with them in the near-term (3-5 years). China will probably be their primary competitor, as they have the best chance of stealing IP and using state resources to get something built that can be competitive.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_laun...ompetition
Falcon 9 is currently 37% cheaper than its closest competitor on a payload cost per kg basis. Falcon heavy is 68% cheaper. That's technology SpaceX has already deployed successfully. If they get the kinks worked out on Starship, 99% cheaper.
In 2020, by total number of launches, SpaceX had 43% of the global launch market (this includes state-funded competition in Russia and China, which don't open their markets to launch competition). 48% of the global launch market if weighted by payload mass to orbit. Those numbers will only continue to increase in SpaceX's favor. No one can touch them on cost to orbit, and no one has anything remotely close to competing with them in the near-term (3-5 years). China will probably be their primary competitor, as they have the best chance of stealing IP and using state resources to get something built that can be competitive.