03-11-2021, 06:26 PM
I think the stimulus will carry us into early Summer, by which point Covid is largely over here in the U.S. and economic activity should be picking up substantially, which should keep markets headed up absent some other black swan event.
To explain my "largely over" comment . . . we are currently vaccinating slightly more than 5% of the total U.S. population on a weekly basis. 25% of adults have now received their first dose. 21% of the U.S. population has already had some strain of Covid. At present rates of vaccination, we are probably less than two months from reaching the threshold for herd immunity.
I fully anticipate that by April, most if not all states will have opened up vaccine availability to anyone who wants it, regardless of age cohort or comorbidities. Alaska has already done that, and more states will follow in the coming weeks. By April I would not be surprised to hear public service advertisements being broadcast far and wide, begging the unvaccinated (including those who previously caught Covid) to go to their local pharmacy or Dollar General to get their free vaccine. The switchover from a supply shortage to a demand shortage will be swift. Most of the timelines posted on various state/county public health department websites are woefully outdated at this point, which isn't surprising when you consider the typical planning process that goes into developing/publishing those things.
Latest on the vaccines from the CDC includes:
1. Fully vaccinated are safe around the unvaccinated
2. Vaccines not only prevent infection, but prevent transmission
Also, recent peer-reviewed studies show that the vaccines are effective against all of the newly discovered variants (including the B117 and P1 variants). Israel is about 60 days ahead of us in terms of per capita vaccinations, and their infection rate has dropped off a cliff, despite reopening essentially everything. Things are going to change to the positive almost as fast as the wheels came off in March, 2020.
So, immediate stimulus sugar high, followed by GDP growth as things rapidly transition back to normal.
To explain my "largely over" comment . . . we are currently vaccinating slightly more than 5% of the total U.S. population on a weekly basis. 25% of adults have now received their first dose. 21% of the U.S. population has already had some strain of Covid. At present rates of vaccination, we are probably less than two months from reaching the threshold for herd immunity.
I fully anticipate that by April, most if not all states will have opened up vaccine availability to anyone who wants it, regardless of age cohort or comorbidities. Alaska has already done that, and more states will follow in the coming weeks. By April I would not be surprised to hear public service advertisements being broadcast far and wide, begging the unvaccinated (including those who previously caught Covid) to go to their local pharmacy or Dollar General to get their free vaccine. The switchover from a supply shortage to a demand shortage will be swift. Most of the timelines posted on various state/county public health department websites are woefully outdated at this point, which isn't surprising when you consider the typical planning process that goes into developing/publishing those things.
Latest on the vaccines from the CDC includes:
1. Fully vaccinated are safe around the unvaccinated
2. Vaccines not only prevent infection, but prevent transmission
Also, recent peer-reviewed studies show that the vaccines are effective against all of the newly discovered variants (including the B117 and P1 variants). Israel is about 60 days ahead of us in terms of per capita vaccinations, and their infection rate has dropped off a cliff, despite reopening essentially everything. Things are going to change to the positive almost as fast as the wheels came off in March, 2020.
So, immediate stimulus sugar high, followed by GDP growth as things rapidly transition back to normal.