What Did You Buy Today?

[Otter]

(01-25-2021, 11:38 AM)vbin Wrote:

(01-25-2021, 10:55 AM)Otter Wrote:

(01-25-2021, 10:42 AM)kblake Wrote:

(01-25-2021, 10:22 AM)Otter Wrote:

(01-25-2021, 10:05 AM)kblake Wrote:  Like I said it's based on the future. Its cheap based on future sales.  They have cash flow no debt or loan. I don't question the traders who keep bidding it up lol

We all should be questioning GME at $100. This stock should be worth $5   

If it goes up any higher I will buy puts

I've now sold 5 2/19/21 GME $20 Puts at an average of $0.80 per contract. Their balance sheet has been cleaned up substantially, an activist investor appointed to the board who is focused on continuing to grow online sales (2020 was a 300%+ growth rate for online sales), and they are undergoing the mother of all short squeezes right now. 

Worst case scenario, the stock drops more than 85% in three weeks, and I end up owning 500 shares at $20/share, plus the $400 I pocketed for selling the puts.

GME is not even worth $20 a share. They nearly went bankrupt last year. The stores have been dead for years. The only reason why the stock is up this high is because it was being hyped on every stock board known to man    and it was the 2nd most shorted stock. The news of the activist is not the reason its up $125 from its lows.

Same thing is happing to TR right now. Yes that boring stock Tootsie Roll. This market is bonkers. Just buy the top 5 shorted stocks and make millions 

A lot of the same was said about CHWY when it was $35/share. Cohen knows what he is doing.

The company had over $100 million cash on hand at the end of October, more than $300 million operating income at the end of FY2018, and it would be trivial for them to do a small issuance at current prices to eliminate their debt (pulling a TSLA). 

I think the odds of them being under $20 in three weeks time is low. Pretty sure I will get to keep the $400 and not own any shares in mid-February.

WSB folks still buying it blindly. I hope that $10Million guy took some profits. Good luck to you.

Buying weeklies is well beyond the amount of risk I'm willing to take on. Don't mind selling them, though (covered calls or cash-secured puts only).

The only options I buy these days are LEAP calls, minimum 1yr duration. Still a small portion of my overall portfolio. At least with LEAPs, the statistical odds are on your side, especially so in a situation like 2020-2021, where Fed monetary policy looks to be accommodative, additional stimulus funding is likely to be passed (via reconciliation process if nothing else), and the value of the dollar continues to erode. The real economy can do absolutely nothing in 2021, but if the value of the dollar erodes significantly, the S&P 500 should reflect substantial gains (in excess of the usual 10% annual gains). There is a phenomenal author on SA who writes very clearly and intelligently about macro economic/monetary issues:

https://seekingalpha.com/author/lyn-alde...r_articles

Highly recommend her stuff. She rarely writes about any specific equity, but focuses more on economic/monetary trends and what central banks are doing. I find a lot of her articles very useful for thinking about what the market is likely to look like 1, 3, 5 years out, based on what is happening now, and what central banks are telegraphing for the future. A black swan like COVID can always cause sudden, unexpected changes, but there's no planning for that aside from the usual steps of diversification and limiting portfolio risk to what you are comfortable with.