IMO oil is all about catching the bottom. It hasn't been a buy and hold for quite a few years now. Most of us just didn't notice the over-supply problem is permanent. I allowed myself to get sucked in with the S.A. oil apologists in 2019 and told myself it won't happen again. It's hard to separate oil spot price from stock price. It really doesn't matter if oil is $50 or $20 for just a few months. Just don't convince yourself XOM is actually an $80 stock, and you are getting it for half price. It's a lotto shot that it happens soon enough to make it a good hold.
Anyway, oil stocks are due for a dead cat bounce. I am dancing RDS puts lower and will do so until forced in. Thankful I only have a couple. I came VERY close to pulling the trigger on BP and XOM weeks ago, and here they are much lower already. The option premium is high for a reason.
I've said this before but the problem with green energy is NOT that it is going to put oil out of business. The problem is it is sucking up the potential growth in oil supply needs. Especially now when the world economy is just going to plod along. We have OPEC controlling production, US oil drilling next to nothing new, large countries sanctioned with potential huge amounts they wish they could sell. Unlimited capacity they can and will put on the market quick if/when oil spikes. These countries are in deep financial trouble already as it's their only real source of income. But solar and wind are only cheaper because governments support it, with subsidies in some cases. Raise your hand if you think the world is not heading that way for the rest of your life.
I'd love to hear anyone's LONGTERM bull thesis. What am I failing to realize?
P.S. I am in RDS vs the others for one reason only. It's not because they are better than XOM, CVX etc. They aren't. But they already ripped the band-aid off and they can afford the dividend for multiple quarters of Armageddon oil prices should they occur. Others are playing with fire. They are going to be so damn far in debt and become hopeless to grow for 10 years. I don't want to be long that mess.
Somebody please sass me please.
Anyway, oil stocks are due for a dead cat bounce. I am dancing RDS puts lower and will do so until forced in. Thankful I only have a couple. I came VERY close to pulling the trigger on BP and XOM weeks ago, and here they are much lower already. The option premium is high for a reason.
I've said this before but the problem with green energy is NOT that it is going to put oil out of business. The problem is it is sucking up the potential growth in oil supply needs. Especially now when the world economy is just going to plod along. We have OPEC controlling production, US oil drilling next to nothing new, large countries sanctioned with potential huge amounts they wish they could sell. Unlimited capacity they can and will put on the market quick if/when oil spikes. These countries are in deep financial trouble already as it's their only real source of income. But solar and wind are only cheaper because governments support it, with subsidies in some cases. Raise your hand if you think the world is not heading that way for the rest of your life.
I'd love to hear anyone's LONGTERM bull thesis. What am I failing to realize?
P.S. I am in RDS vs the others for one reason only. It's not because they are better than XOM, CVX etc. They aren't. But they already ripped the band-aid off and they can afford the dividend for multiple quarters of Armageddon oil prices should they occur. Others are playing with fire. They are going to be so damn far in debt and become hopeless to grow for 10 years. I don't want to be long that mess.
Somebody please sass me please.