What Did You Buy Today?

[fenders53]

(05-08-2020, 09:05 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(05-08-2020, 08:57 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-08-2020, 08:42 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(05-08-2020, 06:17 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-07-2020, 05:07 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: I've been looking at selling RTX puts too.
Need to look at the report they just released first though, it'll be crucial to see just how bad things are over on the commercial aircraft side.

I just spent about an hour on the quarterly.  I'd definitely appreciate some feedback from you.  If you don't feel like a thread please PM me.  The Q1 financial reports include CARR and OTIS so not all that helpful as this is the first for RTX.  The CC transcript was informative and alarming, and I am not just being my usual bear.  After you review tell me what I got wrong.  Here is what I gleened.....

-FCF will be sufficient to cover the dividend.  There will be no buybacks this year.  Liquidity is fine.  They still plan 18-20B in shareholder return, may have to stretch it out to four yrs instead of the three they announced last summer.  

-Commercial air is roughly 50% of RTX revenue when that sector is functional.  (Pratt Whitney and Collins Aerospace).  They project that biz will be reduced 50% and slowly recover back to 2019 levels within three years.  Collins is shipping NOTHING to BA at this time, which I believe is their largest customer.  They are supporting their supply chain so they stay in business.     

-Defense is doing fine if oil recovers some so S.A. can continue to award contracts.  They seem optimistic.

-It seems likely the next few quarters will be ugly.  Downgrades won't surprise me.  I'm impressed with management.  I am sticking around but I am glad this is not a full position yet.

RTX will go higher. Look at DIS that one has gone up $8 in just a few days on bad earnings and future looks dim over the next year or so.

The market will reward you don't worry lol   

In all serious RTX was bad from the beginning. No one liked the merger. Raytheon is a great company where as UTX is not especially with planes not being made. They will suffer for a while. But with patience this is a $100+ stock in a few years. 

I would much rather be in LMT, LHX or NOC

I have plenty of Defense.  The UTX remaining holdings are excellent quality and will contribute, it's just going to be a very long minute or two.  Nothing wrong with what they spun off either, it's just cyclical and slower growth long-term.  Nobody knew the airline industry was going to vaporize like it hasn't in 70 years.  I am not trying to talk anybody out of their RTX position.  Reading reports is a good thing.  Most of the analysts are only good for spewing random and meaningless price targets that will change from month to month.  It's my intent to spend a lot more time doing DD on my true core holdings.  It will entertain me if nothing else.

I love the defense stocks. It’s always been my favorite sector and it’s my most over weighted sector. I was born with a plane in my hand lol. But it’s going to take time for this sector to take off. No pun intended   

CARR announced today they will not be paying a dividend for now!

That surprised me some, but I wondered.  A cyclical BIZ in a horrible economic climate, and RTX slipped a bunch of debt in their suitcase when they sent them off.