04-29-2020, 02:34 PM
(04-29-2020, 02:24 PM)fenders53 Wrote: At the risk of sounding overly-optimist, you all know I am pessimistic lately lol. Dr Fauci commented on the GILD drug trials. I believe all the patients in the test were severe. 8% fatalities instead of 11%. That's over 30% improvement. That's a lot of saves worldwide. Those who did recover are out of ICU 11 days vs 15 days placebo. Doesn't sound like a miracle drug, but somebody's grandmother gets to live and maybe they base a better drug off of REM soon. I'm not all that hopeful for a vaccine soon but a way to treat it sure sounds good to me.
Effective therapeutics also lessen the overall burden on the healthcare system, reducing the risk that healthcare system capacity is overwhelmed. That risk is why lockdowns were needed in the first place, to buy time and capacity for our healthcare system (can't have a functioning day-to-day economy if the usual percentages of car wrecks, workplace injuries, heart attacks, etc., can't be treated because hospitals are filled with COVID patients). I actually think the big market swings on Remdesivir news are somewhat rational. Anything that lessens the risk of future lockdowns reduces the risk of a repeat nosedive in economic activity.
I'm not saying I think it is a steady path up from here, without further volatility, but I think we have seen the worst in terms of risk to healthcare system capacity and declines in economic activity. Many areas are likely to see second waves, but we are far better prepared as a society now than we were two months ago.