04-08-2020, 11:29 AM
(04-08-2020, 10:59 AM)Otter Wrote:This may not be the best plan but I do have a plan. I nibbled quality all the way down and it was scary, and slowly trimming all the way back up. I prayed for a bear market bounce but nobody predicted this outcome. I suspected it would be months before we had any clarity on company financials and that came true. I do want some earnings guidance, but waiting for the all clear signal will be WAY too late like always. The market is running on nothing this week. The last bounce was understandable. There were stocks selling for pre-BK pricing (Wendy's at sub $8 when they are not shut down comes to mind). This run is irrational. The momentum algo machines have taken over lol. The market will work it out when they get some facts. There will be some downgrades when the numbers come to light.(04-08-2020, 10:57 AM)fenders53 Wrote: We are going to struggle with recent low price bias. I don't know about anybody else, but I didn't start a DGI port from scratch last month and buy all my positions at five year low prices. This is why we need some earning guidance. I was good with blindly buying quality brands that were suddenly 50% off. Now I look at a stock only 15% off it's ATH and think hmmmmm, I wonder if they will struggle for five quarters with much higher debt? That's not priced in anymore. That greatly affects how much I am going to pay. There will be more deals soon.
Yes. I have been waiting for more clarity on the "E" side of the P/E equation. That clarity will also end up moving the P.
Edited to add - The "E" information also plays in to most of my other metrics for determining DGI value, like payout ratio, and how realistic Chowder Numbers based on past 5yrs results are likely to be.
Still holding a few SPY puts just in case. I am four years from needing some of this port and another 30% haircut would not be welcomed. Anything I share here should be read in that context. When I was 30 I invested with my hair on fire. Painful but it worked out.