03-31-2020, 02:02 PM
(03-31-2020, 01:48 PM)stockguru Wrote:(03-31-2020, 01:40 PM)Otter Wrote: Small businesses generate 44% of America's economic activity.
80% of American workers live paycheck to paycheck.
Real wage growth has been stagnant to negative for over 35 years for over 90% of American workers.
Consumer debt as a percentage of GDP has dropped roughly 25% from its all-time highs in 2008 (from 100% to 75%), but is still at historically elevated levels (higher than it was in 2001).
Who buys the stuff from the big guys when the consumer is tapped out?
Again you must think this is the great depression era. This is all short term. Sure we will take hits. But we will always come back from blow, after blows. That's what makes America great, And these small businesses get supported more then you will ever know. My husband own 3 cafe's and our community is a strong one and we give back to them and we can always count on there support. In the past 3 months our traffic sales are down 12% which is not bad. We do what we can to keep our business growing. Delivery is one thing we started. Best of all we have not laid off any employees. Sure we cut hours back. But that's what you do to survive. We will come back strong. Coffee and bakery goods everyone loves
I appreciate the sentiment, and believe that long term we will be fine. But, a lot can happen between here and there.
I also try my best to invest with data that informs valuation. I can't reliably value future earnings at the moment (no one can). P/E is one of my most important metrics for valuation. There is too much uncertainty at the moment to come up with solid P/E estimates, driven by things like epidemiology, unemployment numbers, government stimulus, supply chain disruptions, demand disruptions, dividend cuts, etc. So, my current strategy is to use new funds in ways that are intended to profit from those trends. Some may work out, others may not.
When I feel like I can reliably value companies again, I will deploy new funds into DGI holdings. I will probably miss the absolute bottom as a result, but am okay with that.