What Did You Buy Today?

[fenders53]

(03-13-2020, 05:44 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-13-2020, 04:40 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-13-2020, 04:28 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-13-2020, 01:27 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-13-2020, 01:20 PM)vbin Wrote: If trump really wants. He can do the same he did with China. Just put tarriffs on oil and boom overnight oil prices go to $50. U.s.a hardly has 20-30% oil surplus.

I don't think he is going to do that yet becouse cheap oil helps with economy. For short term there is pain but I am not convinced to take a loss on oil majors. This is going to  rebound one or the other way.

He has MANY times stated he wants cheap oil, and cheap gasoline.  It's here.  Paying frack worker unemployment benefits no big deal.  Just put it on our deficit tab.  Some other Prez can deal with it later.  Oil will rebound to $40-45 by late summer.  Not good enough for my failed oil investment thesis I once had.  I'm the bear now lol.

He played very well then becouse he just announced we will be buying oil for strategic reserve, they can keep buying a million barrel a day for next 2 years. That's wonderful.

Do some research on your math.  Tanks aren't that big and they are never anywhere near empty.  It will help this month though.  Better than a poke in the eye for sure.  Some more tanks would be good, but the US is always flush with oil so that may or may not make strategic sense.   

All that said it does help though, because when the Saudi discount takes affect in April we can't export oil profitably.  For now our oil has a buyer while OPEC and Russia come to their senses. (which I think they will)  Hopefully the frackers don't step up production tomorrow and unfix the remedy.  I'm not optimistic as they have loan payments.

U.S. has anywhere between 800 Million to a billion storage cap. Last time I checked we were close to 500 million. Now that doesn't mean that oil never gets used. So in a rough estimate you can see where it's going.

It might keep the 100 or so independent frackers and their local towns in business until after the election normally.  But we have a virus that is going to shut down the world according to many and cut demand several million barrels per day for many months.  If you fill the reserve and then release it back to the market, you are now competing with the same market in a few months and just taking up part of supply. So I guess we'll watch oil prices and see if it raises prices $15+ so everyone is happy for more than a couple months.  The oil futures will let us know very soon what is reality.  It should spike up bigly if you are right.  We'll know in just a few days after they run the actual math.