What Did You Buy Today?

[Ron Ricco]

(02-05-2020, 01:33 PM)EricL Wrote:

(02-05-2020, 12:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(02-05-2020, 11:36 AM)DividendGarden Wrote:

(02-05-2020, 10:51 AM)fenders53 Wrote: XOM and CVX are making cool powerpoint slides pretending they are into renewables going forward.

Haha!

I'm no doubt ticking members off that are crossing their fingers and riding these stocks down.  I would truly love to hear a forward looking bull thesis because all I read (elsewhere) sounds like 20 years ago.  I'm very open to other views.  IMO they are just very short trades until they get a meaningful plan.

The world uses 100 million barrels crude oil EVERY SINGLE DAY. There is surplus production, primarily thanks to US production growth from shale plays, that has resulted in depressed prices. I have doubts that this growth will continue into the future.

All the hysteria about electric cars and renewable energy doesn't change the fact that worldwide demand for fossil fuels continues to grow every year, and likely will for the foreseeable future.

Market sentiment is as bad as it's ever been on the industry, but the fact remains that unless there are huge technological advances in battery/electric power storage, EV's and renewable energy aren't going to take over the world. They are too inefficient, intermittent, and expensive with current technologies to fully replace fossil fuels.

That is why I continue to own CVX, XOM, and other energy companies.

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/s...319-MM.pdf

https://economics21.org/inconvenient-rea...gy-economy

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener...tated.html

I own XOM and I agree there are that there are areas where there will be a need for oil etc.

I will say, I think some are underestimating EV’s and where the technology is. We aren’t dealing with the Leaf of 6 or 7 years ago. You can now buy a car with 300 mile range that has the ability to have an initial recharge rate of 1000MPH. With that sort of charge rate, worrying about taking a road trip is out the window.

Every morning I leave the house with a full “tank of gas” for a nominal price since it is charged at off peak times. With 300 mile range, there isn’t even a thought about having to plug in for in city driving etc although in most medium to large cities, there are plenty of options.

I will say that manufactures are playing catch up with Tesla when it comes to fast recharging etc so I think that will limit the demand for say an Etron until they can make a road trip more viable, but for in city driving there is no downside that I can think of. 

I have had 5 friends get the Model 3 over the last 15 months or so and not one of them has a desire to go back.