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Next Recission ?
A lot of things can be said about Trump before and after attaining the POTUS nameplate, good and bad.

In the end, people care about themselves first and foremost.

They want to feel safe, secure and that their lives are easier now then before. It doesn't matter if you're on government handouts, have a high income, invest in the stock market, or just live paycheck to paycheck. If the majority of the voters feel like it's moving in the right direction for themselves, however one thinks about it politically or on a personal level the POTUS wins, if not, then the POTUS changes.

Trumps' DNA is he wants to win, to get the best possible deal he can get by negotiating. Like Fenders said, Trump looks at the stock market as his barometer and if I was a gambler I'd bet my last penny that deals start to come to a close the as we get to 2020. He's no dummy, he's looking several moves ahead whether he makes the most voters feel better is another story.
I'm not a fan. Several days a week I question his IQ, but I appreciate the boldness he has restored to the presidency. We'll see how this ends. All I know for sure is he turned me into the swing trader I never was before because I just don't trust what he might do next month, or tomorrow for that matter. The market is flat for 18 months. My performance is much better than that and it's because I swing trade his tweets with some portion of my port. It's pretty crazy actually.

This is the place for recession opinions I guess. He's biting off a little more than we can chew right now. IMO China is willing to ride this out 6 years if they have to. He probably better let Mexico off with a modest attempt at assisting with immigration control. He's embarrassed he can't deliver the beautiful wall so they better cooperate some.

And I agree with your assessment rayray. Some vote on the greater good, many more vote their wallet. Trump's gang vpotes their EGO and that's a little new. They want him to kick some foreigner butt, and IMO half of his base is too ignorant to know if that he is doing is actually a good idea only a few years down the road. It's not boring to watch. That's for sure.
It's looking like the votes may be there to override a veto on the proposed Mexico tariffs. Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn has made repeated statements against the tariffs, as have Iowa's Joni Ernst and now freshman Senator from Arizona Martha McSally. Sounds like a message is being sent, giving the administration an opportunity to announce a border security cooperation deal with the Mexican government, and withdraw the tariff proposal without looking like a total cave.

Then again, Louisiana's John Kennedy claims that, during weekend calls with the White House, administration was adamant that the tariffs would happen. Who knows what will happen.

I do know that most economists credit the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act with exacerbating the Great Depression. Hope we don't repeat mistakes of the past. Taxing goods seems like a 19th century solution to 21st century problems.
My biggest problem with the tariffs is they will likely escalate. 5% on Mexico imports is a rounding error. 25% is not. Mexico will have to put their Army on the border to stop immigration. Then we'd probably bomb them for threatening to invade us. This is so hard to predict. Joni Ernst is from my state. It's a swing state and the farmers have already taken a beating. Some Senators are going to start speaking up if this continues a whole lot longer. I support what we are asking for from China. But all at once is just a bridge too far. They've built their empire with unfair trade agreements and tactics. We need a preliminary deal we revisit in a year so they can shift course slowly. They are not going to kneel down to our Prez. Why would they?
Bay area home prices are starting to come down. That's a first since last recession.
Real estate prices can't out pace the economy forever. It probably will be the first sign sign of weakness. I'm not knowledgeable on Bay area pricing but everything I read indicates too frothy. I am not really seeing much sign of recession here, but it almost has to be coming. We are dependent on AG equipment makers healthiness. The farmers are not healthy with the trade war. I think we might see some zero growth quarters soon. Politics and the FED will react. I really don't think we are going to see a crash of epic proportion like 2008-2009 any year soon. I should put my crystal ball away now. Smile
It's always brightest before the dusk.  Big Grin
(05-31-2019, 05:09 PM)Otter Wrote:
(05-31-2019, 04:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, I didn't see assessing more tariffs to other nations coming.  Make a new trade deal with Mexico and then threaten huge tariffs a few months later?  This is an unpredictable mess with potentially dire consequences.

With oil prices plunging, tariffs with our largest trading partner is the last thing my state's economy needs. You'd think 38 electoral votes and Ted Cruz's uncharacteristically narrow 2.6% margin of victory in the 2018 Senate race would advise caution as to anything that could upset the economic apple cart. Between that and potentially devastating auto/part manufacturers in swing states that delivered the narrow electoral college victory in 2016, it seems like a pretty boneheaded political move, economics aside.

(06-27-2019, 10:36 AM)Otter Wrote: It's always brightest before the dusk.  Big Grin

That's not exactly how I remember the old saying lol.
As more and more Californians move out to other states, such as Arizona and Texas, they bring their liberal voting ways with them.

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results."--Albert Einstein
Another round of tariffs. This should be enough to ensure corporate profits slow to a crawl for quarter to come. Especially after China retaliates, and they will in some form or another. Hopefully my defensive portfolio is about to come back in style.

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