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Next Recission ?
#1
Its been 10 years since the last recession hit.  In 2008 it was the mortgage crisis. 

When do you all feel the next rescission will hit?  (Given that recessions roll around every 10 years)

What will cause the next rescission?  ( Trade War?  Student Loan Default?  something else?)
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#2
My guess is that it will be something that nobody is talking about right now. Some country that nobody is worried about at the moment defaults and it cascades unpredictably. Or some other time bomb hidden in the derivatives markets that folks aren't focused on goes off.

But my guess is also that this bull has more room to run. Seems like every headline I read is about how the inevitable downturn MUST be imminent, given how gravity-defying the decade-long run has been. How to protect yourself. How to position yourself to profit from it. I even take you posting this thread as a data point. When everyone is so worried about or sure that something is about to happen in the markets, more often than not the opposite tends to prevail. (Kinda like when my sister the acupuncturist insisted that we HAD to start flipping houses back in 2007 or so...)

Of course, these guesses are worth exactly what you paid for them!

(Edit to add: This is not to say I'm enthusiastically buying at these prices. With this bull so long in the tooth, I'm getting more and more selective and focusing on really boring, really stable, wide moat companies that seem to be trading at fair prices. And not pulling the trigger all that often. Happy to be sitting on some cash for when better opportunities arise.)
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#3
I think have another 12 months or so.

My guess is we'll have a few more rate hikes and rising interest rates before then. I think crude prices are headed higher, and between higher rates and higher costs from energy, will lead to another crash when a highly leveraged economy can't take the double-whammy of the two.
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#4
I don't know the date but my biggest fear is the tariff experiment if it escalates.   This in uncharted territory for us (anytime recently), and no economically significant country is blinking just yet.  If it escalates we will start bailing out sectors in mass.  It's already started with 4.7B planned for the farmers.  It wasn't hard to see that one coming when crop prices hit 10 yr lows almost instantly.  I live near Deere world HQ in the corn and soybean belt.  Big deal around here.  IMO the FED has quite a challenge ahead trying to control this if we start throwing money around as if are coming out of a recession that hasn't happened yet.  We shall see.
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