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#21
Very well said rayray
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#22
Thanks for sharing those very personal thoughts Ray.  I don't do well with death either.  It does put money in perspective.  Money isn't everything, but at the same time the stock market has become almost a hobby.  And though I keep it conservative, I suppose I enjoy  selling options because it adds some excitement.  If I stuck my investment account in a 2% CD forever I'd be just fine.  But I would miss the market.  I'd miss this forum too.  I power post it until you guys are surely sick of reading it all.  But I enjoy that too, and think I possess a little wisdom from all the hard knocks I endured, and many were self inflicted wounds to my port.  I know you guys don't need my hep, but there are some young person lurking this forum that could be helped.  Some kid that has never see the bear, and is pouring all his money into Netflix and a couple other momo stocks. 

In the end I hope to enjoy 10 or 15 years of retirement and waste at least a little money, then share some of the rest with my daughter while I am young enough to watch her enjoy it.  Hopefully she'll invest some of it but it won't surprise me if she doesn't.  My family sacrificed some while I amassed this port.  We could have went on better vacations, had more new cars along the way etc.  Nobody starved lol, but my wife taught my daughter to call me "Daddy-Neezer".  It came out Daddy-neeza because she was young.  She didn't even know what it meant yet lol.  Smile
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#23
If you guys are quite done with all of the big-picture-perspective and mortality and stuff ( Confused ), I just read this interesting article and thought we could add central counterparties to the list of potential market-killing risks.
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#24
Wink 
(05-08-2019, 10:22 AM)Kerim Wrote: If you guys are quite done with all of the big-picture-perspective and mortality and stuff ( Confused ), I just read this interesting article and thought we could add central counterparties to the list of potential market-killing risks.

Ray started it lol.  That was an interesting article BTW.  

.............back to Nostradamus mode for me.  Now listen up Kerim and I'll make us some big money lol .....

There is next to zero risk of a real recession in the immediate future.  The numbers absolutely do not support it. GDP growth, inflation, unemployment.  It just isn't there, and hasn't been for some time.   The market is  conveniently ignoring the fact corporate profit growth is slowing to a crawl for the vast majority of companies.  These stocks would have been crushed for earnings reports like this only last fall.  Now it's suddenly OK to grow 2% or even less YOY.  The FED will sit still enough IMO.

All that said I see a very choppy market for the foreseeable future.  I think the fast train to the sky is over.  I think the 500pt daily swings are back.  China is going to game us to some degree.  Our prez is going to try to play hardball but an election is coming.  He'll find a way to juice the market and fight the battle at the same time.  The election cycle will cause attacks on some of our favorite DGI stock's sectors.  I'll be very surprised if the market is anything but sideways for a year or more.  But there will be chances to buy low and sell high on individual stocks.  I will not be without cash to invest at any time.

The real recession comes when the bubble pops on all this loose monetary policy.  I don't know what year it happens or what county ignites it but it's coming.  It can't end any other way.
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#25
@Fenders--HEY!!! lol

Yes..interesting article, great pictures! But is this real? I didn't see his first name, just Mr. Aas....then with a google search found Einar Aas described as a never seen non-flashy interview-less phantom trader that was extremely successful but rarely had money because he loved to gamble. As his wealth grew he became the largest tax payer of his country that supplied large amounts of money that helped his country's public system. Unfortunately, his gambling ways seemed to bleed into his trading ways and soon he found himself BROKE....and along with his brokeness came no tax dollars that left public programs with a lot less dollars--easy come easy go was one comment.

Non-flashy guy, big time trader but likes to gamble and losses big? Buys big home on the shore and all other adjoining properties to protect his families privacy....hmmm.....doesn't sound shy to me....doesn't sound non-flashy to me....doesn't even seem like a family man to me....

Mr. Einar Aas

E-i-n-a-r A-a-s


Is it just me or is this article some kind of spoof? You know to make some kind of statement of some sort? Political? Too rich? Taxes? Risky investing? Too big too fail? etc etc etc...

Because when I go back to Mr. Einar Aas...it just sounds and looks too much like...well...you know....

IN-YOUR-ASS!!!
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#26
https://citizen.co.za/news/news-world/20...chest-men/

Okay....I guess Mr. Einar Aas is a real guy....but man...anyone with a name like this...it's like he was born to get...you know what....

Maybe, just maybe I watched too many Mel Brooks or Larry David movies and shows.
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#27
(05-11-2019, 01:10 PM)rayray Wrote: Okay....I guess Mr. Einar Aas is a real guy....but man...anyone with a name like this...it's like he was born to get...you know what....

Maybe, just maybe I watched too many Mel Brooks or Larry David movies and shows.

Lol!
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#28
OK, I didn't see assessing more tariffs to other nations coming. Make a new trade deal with Mexico and then threaten huge tariffs a few months later? This is an unpredictable mess with potentially dire consequences.
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#29
(05-31-2019, 04:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, I didn't see assessing more tariffs to other nations coming.  Make a new trade deal with Mexico and then threaten huge tariffs a few months later?  This is an unpredictable mess with potentially dire consequences.

With oil prices plunging, tariffs with our largest trading partner is the last thing my state's economy needs. You'd think 38 electoral votes and Ted Cruz's uncharacteristically narrow 2.6% margin of victory in the 2018 Senate race would advise caution as to anything that could upset the economic apple cart. Between that and potentially devastating auto/part manufacturers in swing states that delivered the narrow electoral college victory in 2016, it seems like a pretty boneheaded political move, economics aside.
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#30
We seem to be adult enough to discuss politics and the effect on our investments. I am very much a Republican that couldn't bring myself to vote for Trump for issues not related to the stock market. That's my prerogative and no problem with dissenting opinions on the subject. But he is absolutely a loose cannon more than ever right now. He has staff that knows damn well he is pushing our luck beyond the limit. Props to him for making a better NAFTA deal happen, then he burns them before congress even approves it. China is watching. This is pure idiocy. But thankfully he considers the S&P500 his report card. He'll reverse course when he has to and this is probably a buying opportunity six months from now. I can hope anyway.
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