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Yes, you have often payed fair value 24 months in advance. That can work for you if the company is a fast grower, or the market just stays frothy. If any small surprises come along for the Biz, or there is PE multiple contraction, you have set yourself up to be at break even or worse even years down the road. You just can't overpay for everything, or eventually you are going to underperform the market by a wide margin.
2020 was not normal. 2021 was closer but still well above average returns for most indexes. If you aren't more careful on your entries you are not going to enjoy a normal year when the market is flat or slightly down. Until the market corrects in earnest, even fair value is a little tough to find today. Only a few sectors are there.
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I think I am down about .25% for the week. Not sure where the indexes are but probably worse than that. Solar and oil were strong. My utilities got beat up. Not losing is great but now I will have to decide when to jump back in with some cash or it won't mean much.
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September & October have been horrible for my port; but I have to say it's comforting to take a long-term view that things will improve next year or the year after, and meanwhile enjoy the dividends.
But that said, my port has two bright spots:
1. OXLC - this yield trap has been steadily gaining in price and I'm up 9.20% overall now, which is amazing for a 10.71% yielder.
2. ORCL - damn I wish I'd bought more earlier this summer. While all the other tech stocks slide, this one keeps going up.
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I'm aware enough of your holdings to know this has been rough. Other than your highest PE stuff I think holding will work out. IMO you need to have your risk management figured out by age 45 or so. You know how to find growth.
Solar is working great for me but only because the swings are tradeable. I have been hanging out within 10K of port ATH for months. I definitely have some suffering sectors like pharma and utes. Most of my good news remains selling options.
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Yeah, at this time, in the taxable account, my biggest loss (not percentage, total loss) is actually Seagate (STX), and that's all chip shortage / supply chain. They will be absolutely fine when things sort themselves out, and in the meantime the yield is up to 3.28%.
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A badly needed up day! SOXL and UPST were the big winners.
ORCL took a breather.
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Added TSM. Good value here with the big dip.