What Did You Buy Today?

[stockguru]

(08-21-2021, 02:50 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Guru

Still have those VSTO shares?  The US ammo shortage was just starting to show signs of subsiding.  Effective SEP 7th Russia ammo imports are banned for at least a year.  Biden already signed it.  Common deer hunter and target shooter ammo included.  I'll do more research but pretty sure Russia is #2 behind VSTO in US market share.  Not saying VSTO will run.  Maybe the forward PE will be 6 instead of 8 soon lol. I didn't see this one coming.

I sure do and don't plan on selling any time soon. Yes its had a bog run, but with that growth and PE it should continue to out perform.

I also have ASO which I just bought. PE of 6 

[stockguru]

(08-20-2021, 03:55 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [quote pid='28182' dateline='1629490036']
August recap

It was a busy couple of weeks in the portfolio.  I made a concerted effort to push my dividends up past $6000 annually.  This I succeeded in doing, though interestingly it came out lumpy.  My Jan/April/July/October dividends are less than $400 each, my Feb/May/August/November dividends are over $500, and my March/June/September/December dividends are over $600.  So, not perfect from a monthly income perspective, but no biggie.

Out went:
MO - I just wanted to be out of tobacco & really all commodities, and also this had been a 1/4/7/10 month dividend payer, so departing this accounted for some of my lumpiness
Amazon - no dividend, and no growth shown this year.  
Taiwan Semiconductor - low dividend and no growth yet this year.
DDM - a 3x leveraged etf on the dow 30.  Had a small position, really have enough leverage elsewhere
RIO - after watching and reading enough articles on the steel trade, CO2 emissions, and China's policies, I became convinced this will continue to sink.

In came:
LLY - Alzheimer's drugs
COF - my bank, and they are doing really well anyway
HAS - my hobby, and a dividend over 2.5%

Additionally, I boosted other funds like NUSI, HTGC, FAS, and did my usual sprinkle a little here, a little there.

I say all this with kind intentions.  I've never met anyone that trades so impulsively.  I said trade because it is nothing remotely like investing.  I really think it would be helpful if you made a log of why you bought or sold all the stocks you have.  Refer to it quarterly.  You are intelligent and obviously try to be analytical, but the end result is you are overthinking this daily and just rationalizing whatever random decision you already made.  Buying individual stocks is hard.  It only works if you don't make the same mistakes repeatedly.  Until you get that under control you are FAR better off with most of your assets in ETFs while you get a plan.  Now let's look at those AUG moves and I'll speak unambiguously.  

AMZN- No dividend or growth this year.  Did you really just type that?  Did they have a dividend less than a month ago when you bought the shares?  No growth?  You are confusing Amazon INC with AMZN shares.  You sold because the stock dropped 3% after you purchased instead of running higher.  The company is growing just fine.  

MO- I'm very OK with that sell.  Their product shortens lives.  If the stock was running up 3% a month you'd probably still own it.  Be honest, and don't buy anymore stocks we buy on the forum that violate your principles. 

TSM- I sold mine too.  The story changed since I bought it.  I paid too much so I had no margin of safety for anything to go wrong.  I violated one of my rules.  I lost money.  I will try to not make that mistake very often but it is tough now when growing businesses are not cheap.  TSM IS growing quite fast. You're confusing the company with the short-term stock movement again.  

RIO- You bought towards the top of the cycle and hoped it would keep running.  You have to buy them when you never would.  I find myself drawn to them when the hype is running.  After 35 years I am certain I am far short of the SPY when I touch commodities.  They will take your gains away in a hurry. 

Your purchases.....

LLY- I expect you'll dump it on the next pullback.  The stock has run MOMO and you bought it $50+ high.    

HAS- Probably a good stock for you.  Are you going to dump it when it pulls back after Christmas shopping season?  

You put it out there and I tried to help.  Feel free to defend your moves. I really am trying to help before the next real dip hurts you bad.  I made some mistakes I'll share on appropriate threads                                          
[/quote]

Don't give up on MO so easily. That and PM are some of my biggest holdings. I am fine if it stays at this $48 dollar level and just live off the dividends. But the chart looks good now and that 50 and 100 MDA are positive and this stock is about to break out. When that news hits down to the road that Weed is now legalized in all states this stock will see $60 and above. I have no reason to sell. Yes its a sin stock but when you can make 4k on dividends I have no reason to sell. Since we do we drop a great dividend aristocrat that has consistently raised their dividend ?

And I will take nice and steady over any 3 x leveraged ETF 

[fenders53]

[quote pid='28201' dateline='1629592546']

(08-21-2021, 02:50 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Guru

Still have those VSTO shares?  The US ammo shortage was just starting to show signs of subsiding.  Effective SEP 7th Russia ammo imports are banned for at least a year.  Biden already signed it.  Common deer hunter and target shooter ammo included.  I'll do more research but pretty sure Russia is #2 behind VSTO in US market share.  Not saying VSTO will run.  Maybe the forward PE will be 6 instead of 8 soon lol. I didn't see this one coming.

I sure do and don't plan on selling any time soon. Yes its had a bog run, but with that growth and PE it should continue to out perform.

I also have ASO which I just bought. PE of 6 
[/quote]

There is usually a reason for a 6 PE but I don't see the catch so far after many quarters of fast growth.  I expect the outdoor sports will cool off over winter other than ammo, I'll hold some shares and maybe jump back in with more in the spring.  I haven't sold any yet but I need to trim if it runs again.

[ken-do-nim]

(08-21-2021, 07:45 PM)stockguru Wrote: Don't give up on MO so easily. That and PM are some of my biggest holdings. I am fine if it stays at this $48 dollar level and just live off the dividends. But the chart looks good now and that 50 and 100 MDA are positive and this stock is about to break out. When that news hits down to the road that Weed is now legalized in all states this stock will see $60 and above. I have no reason to sell. Yes its a sin stock but when you can make 4k on dividends I have no reason to sell. Since we do we drop a great dividend aristocrat that has consistently raised their dividend ?

And I will take nice and steady over any 3 x leveraged ETF 

I certainly didn't sell MO because of financial reasons; it was going great for me, and it paid dividends in that 1/4/7/10 month slot that now could really use a replacement.  And I totally agree it has a bright future given cannabis.  And honestly, I have less of a problem with cannabis than with tobacco, as the latter is cancer-causing.  I just want to be able to cheer when news reports come out that say less teen agers are smoking cigarettes, if that ever happens.

I'm looking at CIM Chimera Investment to replace MO with in that 1/4/7/10 dividend cycle.  When covid hit they dropped their dividend from $0.50 to $0.30, but now they've started to increase it again at $0.33.  But I still know very little about this stock.  FSK is another possibility.  On the traditional DGI side, I will get CSCO back and probably increase STX.  KMB Kimberly Clark is another option but I know very little about them.

[fenders53]

[quote pid='28184' dateline='1629494034']
Feedback appreciated.

I do actually intend to get back into Amazon and Taiwan Semiconductor at some point, I just am willing to risk that they aren't going anywhere any time soon and had other priorities.  Good point though about confusing company growth and ticker symbol growth.

Crossing my fingers I didn't make another Moderna mistake with LLY, but I'm planning to hold it for sure.
[/quote]

I'm not too convinced you comprehend the feedback I or anyone else offers here. Going forward maybe just buy ETFs for awhile. Over time you will figure out that dumping your recently purchased individual stocks at the first sign of a minor pullback is going to greatly effect your returns. It's harder to find a reason to dump an ETF.

It would also allow time for you to focus your energy on a shorter list of individual stocks. It may not work for you, but the more I understand my holdings, the less inclined I am to allow a short-term dip or single piece of bad news shake my conviction. Conviction is what you are lacking right now IMO.

Not too many months ago you said the purpose of your individual DGI port was to take some of the volatility out of your overall port due to the large concentration of 3X leveraged funds. Now you seem to be buying stocks that have had a VERY strong run in share price. They will crash as hard as a leveraged ETF. What is the actual plan now?

I am sure some here think I am too bossy for an internet forum but I do mean to help. I am humble enough to understand there is a lot of talent in this small group. I make more money since I joined this forum because I recognize the skillsets here. I don't rely on whatever Yahoo article I run across to make a random buy or sell of the week.

I think you can succeed at this but it is going to require a plan, a set of investing rules you will actually follow, and getting a grip on your emotional decisions. If you can't, then individual stocks are a guaranteed fail and it won't be pretty when the bull goes away for a few years. Discipline trumps intelligence in the end. It's not even close over time in my experience.

[ken-do-nim]

Sorry I've exasperated you, let me respond to your individual points.

> The yield chase trading game is beyond farcical as you dump them when they show themselves as yield traps that most of them are, despite 100 warnings on this forum.

First off, the whole high dividend payers search is part of a 'training exercise', if you will, for building a dividend paying machine that I can use at retirement. I am hopeful that some of them I will be able to maintain for the long term and aren't, in fact, yield traps. Yes absolutely, ORC, AGNC and NLY had to be cut, and in hindsight I was hoping, like Genester hopes now, that at a low enough price, they are worth buying, when that really isn't the case, since they over time continue to erode. I expect one day to have to exit OXLC for similar reasons but I'm giving it some time to play out. But others, like HTGC, PFL, and ARCC don't have a history that suggests they are just 'return of capital'. I believe a mixture of such high yielders, middle yielders (the ABBVs and PRUs of the world), and lower yielders (SCHD, CSCO, STX, AVGO all up in the high 2s low 3s) will be my eventual lineup for retirement, as I attempt to aim for an average portfolio yield of around 5-6%. If I reach the $3M target, that's $150-180k annually. Of course, given the way inflation is going, $150k in 12 years may not be enough! But in that case I simply won't retire if I don't have to.

> Your company stock sells are already taxed right? There is your income you say you require now. Sufficient balance to fund your extra expenses for years.

In fact that was my plan coming into 2021. Sell $4500 - $12500 a quarter, and supplement the monthly budget with $1500. In practice, when the company stock had a downturn, I didn't want to sell. Dividends are much more reliable. This kind of answered my whole question that I posed when I first joined the forum about just buying growth stocks and selling for living expenses at retirement vs. dividends.

> After reading about your literally weekly buy high and sell low chronicles

I've definitely made some mistakes recently (*cough* RIO *cough*), but I think we have a different investing philosophy. Let's take the recent AMZN venture as an example. Amazon is a stock I eventually want to own. I missed the big run-up thanks to Amazon Web Services that I didn't know were coming, but they've leveled off in recent years. I do think there's other big breakthroughs the company is capable of, but I feel I can wait until next year to have some Amazon. However, when they dropped suddenly a few weeks back, I decided to bring them into the fold earlier than planned, in case it immediately corrects back up (like say, Lowes did recently). It didn't work out, so I moved on to other priorities. I really don't mind taking a minor loss because I've already got large gains on the year that can be offset.

Big picture wise, I'm actually doing pretty well. I'm sure there are others on this forum blowing me away, but I'm learning. Taxable account is up 24.59% year to date, ROTH is up 59.68% year to date, whereas the S&P 500 is up 18.25%, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq at lower amounts.

[fenders53]

I edited my last post so yours may make less sense now. I will read what you posted now and respond.

[fenders53]

First of all this place is not a contest to achieve the highest possible total return over a short period. Some are 40 years from retirement, some are 40 weeks. Appropriate risk reward as appropriate for your current place in life. I know you get that part.

You are up big because you are leveraged. Not just an ordinary bull market. Are you aware post pandemic crash this is the best 365 day run in equities since WWII ended? That's a long time. We are all stock experts right now and mistakes are forgiven by the market. I am beating the SPY right now and my port is sometimes 40% cash as I wait for an opportunity. Does that make me good? No probably some luck involved and the rubber band snaps both ways.

The high yielders do hit a nerve. You buy them with little understanding of how their tricks work. When we call the junk out you dump them on the next dip. If you don't listen to anything else we say, less really is more. Put in the time to understand what you own or you will shake out fast as your recent trades prove you scare easily. Chasing this weeks shiny object ends bad.

[ken-do-nim]

> Not too many months ago you said the purpose of your individual DGI port was to take some of the volatility out of your overall port due to the large concentration of 3X leveraged funds. Now you seem to be buying stocks that have had a VERY strong run in share price. They will crash as hard as a leveraged ETF. What is the actual plan now?

This is a good point; I happen to think LLY has more room to grow but I probably bought COF at the top.

The plan now? Well I'm very nearly done for the year. I'm at $40k of company stock liquidated already and that's quite a tax hit even at long-term capital gains. I might do another $5-$10k of it. CSCO is the next primary acquisition, and I'm looking at CIM like I mentioned earlier. It might be a yield trap, might not, but I actually do plan to take the time to research it first.

Come next year, I will continue to add to AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, & SCHD, but mostly I'm going to get ready for the chip explosion. The chip stocks are all suppressed this year, but when the chip shortage ends in 2022 or 2023, they are going to take off (again). So I will double down on TXN, AVGO, re-acquire TSM, add AMD, ASML, and add to SOXX and SOXL.

[fenders53]

The tech portion of your port is solid. It might be a bumpy ride but it's not hard to imagine tech is higher a year from now. If the rest of your port was less complicated I think you would be set to hold through downturns. (other than the leverage).

[ken-do-nim]

Btw, I was curious myself how leveraged I am at this point.

Taxable: 43.7%
ROTH: 33.4%

I think 1/3 is about perfect for the ROTH, and I'd like to see the Taxable at more like 25%, but if I were to include the company stock it dilutes to about 22% anyway.

[fenders53]

At your age maybe 1/3 is OK. Knowing when to trim the leverage before you give too much back will never be easy. I would even entertain a bit of leverage after a big pullback.