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08-19-2021, 08:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-19-2021, 08:47 PM by vbin.)
(08-19-2021, 01:29 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [quote pid='28160' dateline='1629397270']
(08-19-2021, 11:19 AM)vbin Wrote: Added baba and tencent
One of these days you will pick the bottom 
I hope your only buying 1 share each time lol
Right now cash under my pillow seems like the right choice. I'm pretty much fully invested now, so really cant do much buying unless its 1-2 shares 
Oil and Chinese stocks are his daily scratch off Lotto tickets. We all have a weakness. 
[/quote]
Nother I gamble in casino nor play lotto. Stock market is risky but BABA is undervalued and we know the story with oil. If you ever been to China you would know the value and power of tencent and baba.
If u.s. govt were bringing the same change for privacy, everyone will be cheering like cheer leaders. People are so driven by political agenda that anything china makes them uncomfortable.
Seen this movie too many times with target, fb, cvs, oil and now Chinese stocks.
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08-19-2021, 08:58 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-19-2021, 09:17 PM by fenders53.)
Agree they rebound someday. It just looked like obvious freefall 50 pts ago and this time it came true. Still no sign they are even trying to base. I've seen the falling knife movie too many times. Just stress I can avoid.
You are right about monopolistic US stocks but our GOV just goes away eventually. Maybe that changes someday. And I own plenty of oil. Not adding while they drop every week. Good way to lose money in commodity based stocks. I'm a slow learner as I am still tempted.
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Wow Macy's (M) breaking out. They are bringing back Toys R Us inside their stores and bringing back the dividend. Looks like a good turnaround story.... And its my wife's favorite place to shop lol
Wish I bought when it was like $10.. Oh well.. I will look for a pullback and maybe buy some on the way to $30
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08-20-2021, 01:06 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-20-2021, 01:09 PM by fenders53.)
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08-20-2021, 03:07 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-20-2021, 03:09 PM by ken-do-nim.)
August recap
It was a busy couple of weeks in the portfolio. I made a concerted effort to push my dividends up past $6000 annually. This I succeeded in doing, though interestingly it came out lumpy. My Jan/April/July/October dividends are less than $400 each, my Feb/May/August/November dividends are over $500, and my March/June/September/December dividends are over $600. So, not perfect from a monthly income perspective, but no biggie.
Out went:
MO - I just wanted to be out of tobacco & really all commodities, and also this had been a 1/4/7/10 month dividend payer, so departing this accounted for some of my lumpiness
Amazon - no dividend, and no growth shown this year.
Taiwan Semiconductor - low dividend and no growth yet this year.
DDM - a 3x leveraged etf on the dow 30. Had a small position, really have enough leverage elsewhere
RIO - after watching and reading enough articles on the steel trade, CO2 emissions, and China's policies, I became convinced this will continue to sink.
In came:
LLY - Alzheimer's drugs
COF - my bank, and they are doing really well anyway
HAS - my hobby, and a dividend over 2.5%
Additionally, I boosted other funds like NUSI, HTGC, FAS, and did my usual sprinkle a little here, a little there.
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[quote pid='28182' dateline='1629490036']
August recap
It was a busy couple of weeks in the portfolio. I made a concerted effort to push my dividends up past $6000 annually. This I succeeded in doing, though interestingly it came out lumpy. My Jan/April/July/October dividends are less than $400 each, my Feb/May/August/November dividends are over $500, and my March/June/September/December dividends are over $600. So, not perfect from a monthly income perspective, but no biggie.
Out went:
MO - I just wanted to be out of tobacco & really all commodities, and also this had been a 1/4/7/10 month dividend payer, so departing this accounted for some of my lumpiness
Amazon - no dividend, and no growth shown this year.
Taiwan Semiconductor - low dividend and no growth yet this year.
DDM - a 3x leveraged etf on the dow 30. Had a small position, really have enough leverage elsewhere
RIO - after watching and reading enough articles on the steel trade, CO2 emissions, and China's policies, I became convinced this will continue to sink.
In came:
LLY - Alzheimer's drugs
COF - my bank, and they are doing really well anyway
HAS - my hobby, and a dividend over 2.5%
Additionally, I boosted other funds like NUSI, HTGC, FAS, and did my usual sprinkle a little here, a little there.
[/quote]
I say all this with kind intentions. I've never met anyone that trades so impulsively. I said trade because it is nothing remotely like investing. I really think it would be helpful if you made a log of why you bought or sold all the stocks you have. Refer to it quarterly. You are intelligent and obviously try to be analytical, but the end result is you are overthinking this daily and just rationalizing whatever random decision you already made. Buying individual stocks is hard. It only works if you don't make the same mistakes repeatedly. Until you get that under control you are FAR better off with most of your assets in ETFs while you get a plan. Now let's look at those AUG moves and I'll speak unambiguously.
AMZN- No dividend or growth this year. Did you really just type that? Did they have a dividend less than a month ago when you bought the shares? No growth? You are confusing Amazon INC with AMZN shares. You sold because the stock dropped 3% after you purchased instead of running higher. The company is growing just fine.
MO- I'm very OK with that sell. Their product shortens lives. If the stock was running up 3% a month you'd probably still own it. Be honest, and don't buy anymore stocks we buy on the forum that violate your principles.
TSM- I sold mine too. The story changed since I bought it. I paid too much so I had no margin of safety for anything to go wrong. I violated one of my rules. I lost money. I will try to not make that mistake very often but it is tough now when growing businesses are not cheap. TSM IS growing quite fast. You're confusing the company with the short-term stock movement again.
RIO- You bought towards the top of the cycle and hoped it would keep running. You have to buy them when you never would. I find myself drawn to them when the hype is running. After 35 years I am certain I am far short of the SPY when I touch commodities. They will take your gains away in a hurry.
Your purchases.....
LLY- I expect you'll dump it on the next pullback. The stock has run MOMO and you bought it $50+ high.
HAS- Probably a good stock for you. Are you going to dump it when it pulls back after Christmas shopping season?
You put it out there and I tried to help. Feel free to defend your moves. I really am trying to help before the next real dip hurts you bad. I made some mistakes I'll share on appropriate threads
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Feedback appreciated.
I do actually intend to get back into Amazon and Taiwan Semiconductor at some point, I just am willing to risk that they aren't going anywhere any time soon and had other priorities. Good point though about confusing company growth and ticker symbol growth.
Crossing my fingers I didn't make another Moderna mistake with LLY, but I'm planning to hold it for sure.
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Pharma is in style for the first time in awhile. The only advice I have is you bought high so don't be afraid to trim if you are fortunate to get a run.
We can't know when we should buy or sell 3X QQQ, but for the DGI side of our port we can track some blue chip dividend stocks and wait to nibble in. WBA was a good example. Nobody thought the company was going BK but the stock kept dying. When the dividend yield was ridiculously high it was time to nibble. Some of that boring stuff pays off if you can ignore the share price. They are usually way early but they get plenty of press on our financial sites. Some of this is easier if you just take the dividend and ignore the stock for a year or two if it doesn't run fast.
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(08-19-2021, 08:14 PM)vbin Wrote: (08-19-2021, 01:29 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [quote pid='28160' dateline='1629397270']
(08-19-2021, 11:19 AM)vbin Wrote: Added baba and tencent
One of these days you will pick the bottom
I hope your only buying 1 share each time lol
Right now cash under my pillow seems like the right choice. I'm pretty much fully invested now, so really cant do much buying unless its 1-2 shares
Oil and Chinese stocks are his daily scratch off Lotto tickets. We all have a weakness.
Nother I gamble in casino nor play lotto. Stock market is risky but BABA is undervalued and we know the story with oil. If you ever been to China you would know the value and power of tencent and baba.
If u.s. govt were bringing the same change for privacy, everyone will be cheering like cheer leaders. People are so driven by political agenda that anything china makes them uncomfortable.
Seen this movie too many times with target, fb, cvs, oil and now Chinese stocks.
[/quote]
i also own some china stocks, i agree the data says undervalued--but the difference between this and that is a group known as the CCP and they're flexing their muscles
we can't compare for example an undervalued amzn the same way as an undervalued baba--the risk is far greater
i can see money to be made in china stocks but i can also see depressed values far longer then anyone anticipates
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That's the way I see it too Ray. CCP is passing out lasting scar tissue right now. I escaped profitably but there are too many like me now. I just don't need the risk of the unknown. They are rapidly creating an environment where a 30% growth rate and unlimited cash is worth a sub 10 PE for years to come. Not to mention the bag holders praying for the stock to pop 15% so they can escape with a smaller loss.
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Guru
Still have those VSTO shares? The US ammo shortage was just starting to show signs of subsiding. Effective SEP 7th Russia ammo imports are banned for at least a year. Biden already signed it. Common deer hunter and target shooter ammo included. I'll do more research but pretty sure Russia is #2 behind VSTO in US market share. Not saying VSTO will run. Maybe the forward PE will be 6 instead of 8 soon lol. I didn't see this one coming.
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