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Exactly right Guru. Forums are a good place to get ideas to go research for yourself. Most of the data is out there with a little effort.
And there is no requirement for us to agree with each other. That would be boring. We'll all win some and lose some over time. If we want to cherry pick posts from the past, we can make a case that everyone here is a genius or an idiot. I see little point in that.
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06-16-2021, 01:13 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2021, 01:14 PM by fenders53.)
[quote pid='26796' dateline='1623865713']
Commodities and basic materials are in my lowest circle of trust when it comes t predictable recurring revenues. They are the polar opposite of telcos and utes in that regard. Might as well consult the horoscopes as any quarterly earnings estimates
[/quote]
Mine as well Otter. I've gotten better at winning more often the past few years, but I don't stick around to get the last nickel and that's OK.
"Chemicals" are outside my circle of competency. I made some money in 2020 in CLF but I really didn't know what to expect six months from now. The story changes. I follow the oil story well enough to have a clue what will effect it going forward. I still got beat up in 2015 or whenever last peak ended. I research the heck out of UTEs and renewable energy. I see what's going on in lumber and general building materials at work. I speak to the major vendors almost daily at work and can smell bunk in an analyst report. Doesn't make me a pro commodity trader, but at the very least I know what's going on for the immediate future so it's tradeable. Gold and silver, just a small hedge now, and it will remain small after it's run up for a year. I avoided it completely for 30 years.
I'll stick with my last statement. Most will lose money investing in commodities eventually if they don't wise up on the base commodity and don't lose sight of the fact they are cyclical. I have no inclination to try to be smart on every subject so I can invest in 25 subsectors. It's not necessary.
I hold no ill will towards LYB and hope everyone gets rich if they invest in it.
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Powell is an A hole lol What a premature for Powell to say about a possible couple rate hikes 2023 ?? Obviously to disrupt the stock market ?
Good for him. He must have money on the sidelines to put into your market haha!!
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06-16-2021, 01:21 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2021, 01:42 PM by fenders53.)
Well played so far by the FED. I prefer that what they say sound credible. 2023 interest rate hikes if the economy launches until then shouldn't be shocking. Market will likely get over this and move on to the next thing to worry about soon enough.
Didn't see your post before I typed this. SPY has crashed all the way to a one week low almost. 
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Bought C and RBLX for my kids who are addictive.
If interest rates will be raised in 2023 now is the time to add to Banks on weakness.
NKE, HD, COST should do well as well. I'm looking to add to these names as well.
Consumer staples, financials and consumer discretionary,
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[quote pid='26801' dateline='1623869516']
Bought C and RBLX for my kids who are addictive.
If interest rates will be raised in 2023 now is the time to add to Banks on weakness.
NKE, HD, COST should do well as well. I'm looking to add to these names as well.
Consumer staples, financials and consumer discretionary,
[/quote]
What's your bullish narrative on NKE and higher interest rates?
I have owned some shares for about 8 months and I am about even. I'd like to add but I never do because the valuation makes me nervous (because you know me lol) I only own a couple stocks with a higher PE.
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Rolled some dividends I had into LOW, MO, JPM and NKE
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Hoping interest rate fears will dip UTEs 5% but not holding my breath.
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06-16-2021, 02:38 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2021, 02:39 PM by divmenow.)
(06-16-2021, 02:33 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Hoping interest rate fears will dip UTEs 5% but not holding my breath.
Talk about an over valued sector ; 
For me to add to any of those names they would all have to drop $10 from each of there levels lol. WEC is the closest to adding. Everything else. No thank you!
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06-16-2021, 02:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2021, 02:52 PM by fenders53.)
(06-16-2021, 02:38 PM)divmenow Wrote: (06-16-2021, 02:33 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Hoping interest rate fears will dip UTEs 5% but not holding my breath.
Talk about an over valued sector ;
For me to add to any of those names they would all have to drop $10 from each of there levels lol. WEC is the closest to adding. Everything else. No thank you!
WEC is my UTE girlfriend but it is overvalued too.  I always keep a core position and don't worry longterm, but buy the dips and sell the rips is all I can do on top of that. I trimmed a lot close to the top. I don't need a huge dip from here to add back. At least a little.
My cost basis in XEL is under $8 for half of my shares so I'm not going to stress that one much. The first 100 shares are probably less than free after dividends.
crimsonghost747
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(06-16-2021, 01:19 PM)divmenow Wrote: Powell is an A hole lol What a premature for Powell to say about a possible couple rate hikes 2023 ??
What else can he say?
Inflation is kicking up and interest rate hikes are the most effective way to keep it under control. But you can't raise rates now since that would be destructive to a market riding ridiculous leverage at all-time highs.
So you say "yeah we will see end of 2023" and then keep pushing it forward when necessary.
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06-16-2021, 03:22 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-16-2021, 03:23 PM by fenders53.)
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