(04-15-2021, 08:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Minimum wage in any real form isn't even on the front burner at the moment. Last I heard they are talking about staggering raises progressively for five years to $15. AMZN, TGT ,HD , LOW plus more are already on about year four due to market pressure and blowing away profit records. You can check the tape on the profits. It surprised me.
I think SPY is good for a few hundred more points in 2021 due to liquidity and TINA but we are overdue for some chop. Probably by summer. Market didn't care about over valuation 20% ago so I am not going to know when the music stops in advance. The super specs pulled back and the market barely blinked.
The correction is going to come sooner then you think. I just have that gut in my stomach it’s right around the corner. Just a pull up a chart and most RSI are above 80 and some even higher. When stocks are way higher now then before the pandemic hit we are in danger territory. A lot of Funds are still heavy into cash. In fact most big funds top holdings are cash lol. They will take things down to bring in more money from the sidelines lol. The market will eventually get valuations right. To me things are valued way to high and a recovery is already priced in. I took some money off the table and trimmed lots of holdings before the close. Basically cut holdings in half and will wait to buy those shares back. I just can’t justify these prices at these high valuations. When WBA is about the only buy out there, that signals cation lol. I still have skin in the game but I’m smart and am not going to give back what I worked hard for lol. And if they keep bidding stocks up I’m still in far enough I make money. For me to buy I need a big correction to put new money to work. Those buying now are going to get hurt in the short term. Buy low and sell high. Not buy now and hope to sell higher lol . And I’m not a bear. Just not a bull at the moment lol
04-15-2021, 09:58 PM (This post was last modified: 04-15-2021, 10:01 PM by fenders53.)
Depends where ones holdings are now maybe? VBIN has been at 50% most of the time for a long while. Others are at 100% in always because they know the difference between investing and amateur market timing. Even the Pros don't have a good timing record or more than a minority would best SPY but they don't. Glad I wasn't out lately because my port was up hard while specs pulled back 25%. I don't pretend to know. I always have cash though. We might guess right or not. What has changed since the last time you bought stocks a week ago?
I don't like current valuations even a little. That was true for many stocks 6 months ago.
While I am calling you out, what month is the correction? Why would I keep half my holdings and lose a lot of money? Why not go all cash and just buy at the bottom? Is it going back up right away?
(04-15-2021, 09:58 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Depends where ones holdings are now maybe? VBIN has been at 50% most of the time for a long while. Others are at 100% in always because they know the difference between investing and amateur market timing. Even the Pros don't have a good timing record or more than a minority would best SPY but they don't. Glad I wasn't out lately because my port was up hard while specs pulled back 25%. I don't pretend to know. I always have cash though. We might guess right or not. What has changed since the last time you bought stocks a week ago?
I don't like current valuations even a little. That was true for many stocks 6 months ago.
A week ago I wasn’t thinking clearly lol. And my buys of late were stocks that didn’t shoot straight up lol. Like most you keep expecting more gains. And once you get those thoughts in your head you can’t lose, that’s when it goes down hill. I will never go 100%. If the market corrects big your stuck and may take years just to break even. Greed is your worst enemy. I think we’re at greed levels now. That’s all I will say lol. That little guy on my shoulder told me now was the time lighten up.. Can’t get hurt when you take profits lol. It’s a comfort level now knowing I stuck to my levels and valuations I see fit. The targets I had on most stocks already exceeded those targets. And those targets were set for 2024. And her we are in 2021 already surpassing them haha. Most investors today expect a run up every week. They have never seen a correction. And once it starts that’s when the selling will kick in. Not saying it’s tomorrow, next week or next month. But it is coming and I’m preparing ahead of the curve. I’m the meantime I may just buy 5000 T shares before the Ex dividend and reinvent them in the company lol . Make $2500 and rinse and repeat lol. That’s 10k for doing no work. Then buy the good names once they correct where I feel comfortable buying them again. As you know the market eventually gives you opportunities. Just have to have more patience this time around lol
It's getting tougher. Being all in if your entry is recent comes with considerable risk of waiting years to get back to even. We'll get a dip before long and see what happens. Everyone is programmed to buy a dip. That probably works a while longer. Earnings might make it a sector thing.
(04-15-2021, 10:55 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
It's getting tougher. Being all in if your entry is recent comes with considerable risk of waiting years to get back to even. We'll get a dip before long and see what happens. Everyone is programmed to buy a dip. That probably works a while longer. Earnings might make it a sector thing.
The market is over valued by 34.8 percent right now. I have the graphs and proof just how extended these valuations really are lol. I don’t need to sell everything and go 100% cash. Even if we drop 20% here I’m protected and my loss would be minimal. I’m protected and rebalanced to survive a big correction. So they could go to zero and I’m fine lol. My cash is earning .70% each month and that earns me enough where I’m happy while it wait. I am all about a correction. It’s needs to bring new money in . And they need to flush people out. It will be healthy and much needed. It’s just a matter of when.
Some sectors are already in bear territory. The dividend stocks will be next to retreat. Those lofty levels can’t be supported. The S&P is now priced for 2023 and beyond. I don’t have the why and why not answer. I’m just going by instincts. I can remember when the pandemic hit and at the time I lightened up and went 70% cash. That turned out to be a great idea and got back in at or near the lows. Now we’re way up and when near bankrupt companies are at all time highs. That’s scary to process lol . Just think about stocks like SIX, RRGB ect. The list is mile long. These companies are in trouble and won’t survive yet they get bid up. Lucky those investors for now lol
That’s all for now. We will see if the Bears attack or the bull keeps charging lol
A SPY chart on Fastgraphs is just scary. I own a Russell ETF that languished for years and ran way up finally. Many of the Aristocrats are dangerously over valued. We also have historically low interest and we are still printing money. This is why I have no clue when the market corrects and stays down. I see minimum wage as a non issue. Stocks aren't really priced for significant problems though like a large corporate tax increase.
I am invested defensively in holdings and strategies. I am not going to try to time it in any meaningful way until I see a catalyst. Nothing we are concerned about now is news.
(04-16-2021, 06:42 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Is it possible the correction would take the form of a choppy market for a while, rather than a violent downswing?
Anything is possible. The lack of anything like real choppiness is what causes me concern. It indicates those currently invested are overly optimistic. Stonks only go up. That and the 100 tickers that went into ludicrous mode. That was pure 1999.V2.
My daughter texted me last night and asked me if I was putting Dogecoin in her new IRA. Yeah, that kind of BS Is mainstream thought. She didn't learn that from Dad.
Anyone age 45 should mostlly ignore this conversation. Anyone riding a port with a 2X beta will get thoughts and prayers from Divmenow and I eventually. For awhile now 2022 has been my concern. I see no immediate end to government juice.
(04-16-2021, 07:03 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Anyone age 45 should mostlly ignore this conversation. Anyone riding a port with a 2X beta will get thoughts and prayers from Divmenow and I eventually. For awhile now 2022 has been my concern. I see no immediate end to government juice.
2022 is when the real wall of worry starts, as the global economy will experience the vaccine boom that we got to enjoy second (after Israel).
Just think how upset we will be about how overvalued everything is in 2024.
The markets will make new highs for the majority of everyone’s lives. Most 20% corrections aren’t even noticeable on a 10yr chart. Human psychology ensures that we discount the overwhelming evidence that markets mostly go up, and overreact to the handful of times they don’t.
Pretty much everyone who held a diversified portfolio in 2001, 2008, and 2020, and didn’t sell low, is doing just fine today.
Not a suggestion to buy trash high yielders with poor balance sheets, or DASH, but pretty much everything in everyone’s portfolio here was criticized as overvalued at some point from 2010-2015. People now wish they had bought truckloads at those valuations.
(04-15-2021, 10:55 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
It's getting tougher. Being all in if your entry is recent comes with considerable risk of waiting years to get back to even. We'll get a dip before long and see what happens. Everyone is programmed to buy a dip. That probably works a while longer. Earnings might make it a sector thing.
The market is over valued by 34.8 percent right now. I have the graphs and proof just how extended these valuations really are lol. I don’t need to sell everything and go 100% cash. Even if we drop 20% here I’m protected and my loss would be minimal. I’m protected and rebalanced to survive a big correction. So they could go to zero and I’m fine lol. My cash is earning .70% each month and that earns me enough where I’m happy while it wait. I am all about a correction. It’s needs to bring new money in . And they need to flush people out. It will be healthy and much needed. It’s just a matter of when.
Some sectors are already in bear territory. The dividend stocks will be next to retreat. Those lofty levels can’t be supported. The S&P is now priced for 2023 and beyond. I don’t have the why and why not answer. I’m just going by instincts. I can remember when the pandemic hit and at the time I lightened up and went 70% cash. That turned out to be a great idea and got back in at or near the lows. Now we’re way up and when near bankrupt companies are at all time highs. That’s scary to process lol . Just think about stocks like SIX, RRGB ect. The list is mile long. These companies are in trouble and won’t survive yet they get bid up. Lucky those investors for now lol
That’s all for now. We will see if the Bears attack or the bull keeps charging lol
Can you run that chart again and include interest rates with it? You can't really compare valuations now against against those from 30-50 years ago because we are in a completely different business and fiscal environment now than we were then.
Interest rates from the 70's-80's were over 10%, hitting as high as 20% in 1979. Think that skews the mean a bit?
We also didn't have the fed and fiscal programs pumping trillions upon trillions of dollars into the system like we do now.
Global interest rates are at or below zero around the globe now, bonds yield 1% or less.
Where else can people go to get a return on cash other than the stock market?
I'm not saying that things aren't overvalued, because there are plenty examples of things that are. But I have a hard time saying the overall market is overvalued by a certain percentage, when we are living in much different conditions than most of recent history.
A 1% bond yield is roughly the same return on investment as a 100 PE. Neither is a very attractive option, but at least you get the possibility of growth with the PE.
