What Did You Buy Today?

[Otter]

Also, that chart from the St. Louis Fed that I posted:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S

is one of the clearest depictions of modern monetary theory I've ever seen. Substantial deficit reduction within ~1yr precedes every single recession depicted on that chart. If you view deficits/surpluses as ledger entries for the sovereign making more or less dollars available to participate in economic activity, recessions following withdrawal of economic opportunity from the economy makes sense. You may not believe in modern monetary theory, but the Fed and Treasury clearly do, and have acted in accordance with that philosophy for decades.

[fenders53]

I think the FED has done a remarkable job of facilitating some order through challenging times. My concerns are with unhinged excessive deficit spending from politicians. We'll see if it continues to go parabolic or not. I know it's just a few trillion every couple months but pretty soon it adds up to real money.

[ken-do-nim]

(02-25-2021, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(02-25-2021, 10:00 AM)divmenow Wrote: Bought some LDOS. Between the earnings miss and short report I haven’t seen it this low in a while. So I said why not lol. You in on this one too Fenders ?

I haven't researched it.  Hadn't heard of it until you and Otter were discussing it last week.  I am trying to not add too many more new names.  We'll see how long that lasts. 

What I need is for tech to get hammered for real again, but this market is resilient.

Very small trades this morning.  Added a few shares to DG-ARKF  Sold a few SLV puts.

(04-09-2021, 06:16 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I think the FED has done a remarkable job of facilitating some order through challenging times.  My concerns are with unhinged excessive deficit spending from politicians.  We'll see if it continues to go parabolic or not.  I know it's just a few trillion every couple months but pretty soon it adds up to real money.  

My understanding is increased spending is going to be paired with a tax increase; probably on those whose taxes were cut by the Trump admininstration.

[Otter]

(04-09-2021, 06:16 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I think the FED has done a remarkable job of facilitating some order through challenging times.  My concerns are with unhinged excessive deficit spending from politicians.  We'll see if it continues to go parabolic or not.  I know it's just a few trillion every couple months but pretty soon it adds up to real money.  

I am not overly concerned, and again I would point to that graph linked above. Roughly 95% of our economic history after the Great Depression (the area of the chart below the black line) was conducted from a posture of deficit spending. 

If substantial and prolonged deficit spending causes economic collapse, then the last four working generations that created the greatest concentration of economic wealth that humans have ever produced are problematic to that theory.

If instead modern monetary theory is correct, and deficits are merely a method for a sovereign government controlling a global reserve currency to increase the supply of currency (and corresponding economic opportunity) to its citizens and corporations to promote economic growth, that is a better fit for the past 90 years of economic history. 

All monetary systems, whether tied to a gold standard, fiat, bitcoin, etc., rely on the faith of the users to have value. Currencies themselves have no intrinsic value. As long as the majority of the population doesn't think too hard about that, the system works. It's mostly inertia. 

Changes to the prevailing monetary system have coincided with some of the most negative economic upheaval during the period since the Great Depression. When Nixon dismantled the post-war Bretton Woods system by taking us off the Gold Standard and creating the Petrodollar, that was largely responsible for the inflation and economic upheaval of the 1970s. Deficits were essentially irrelevant to what took place then. The dollar actually appreciated strongly against several other reserve currencies in the early 1980s, because of the huge increase in demand for dollars that the Petrodollar system created. The Reagan administration's solution for this was the Plaza Accords, which depreciated the dollar substantially against many of our competitors, including Japan, and likely was one of the primary triggers for Japan's following lost decades. The resultant increase in the supply of dollars relative to other currencies, and economic activity tied to dollars, helped dig us out of the double-dip recessions of the early 1980s and fueled the nearly unprecedented economic growth that occurred over the next 15 years. That growth remained explosive and unchecked until the late 1990s, when the government siphoned money out of the economy through budget surpluses.

[fenders53]

Ken, I will be real surprised if it is funded even 50% in it's final form. It's early in the process for sure. If infrastructure spending is spread over many years it becomes more practical.

[stockguru]

added GD, DIS and T

NOC, LMT and LHX on fire. Why not GD now lol

[fenders53]

(04-09-2021, 08:55 AM)stockguru Wrote: added GD, DIS and T

NOC, LMT and LHX on fire. Why not GD now lol

GD is the Pfizer of Defense Stocks.  They can do OK and nobody cares.

[divmenow]

(04-09-2021, 09:19 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-09-2021, 08:55 AM)stockguru Wrote: added GD, DIS and T

NOC, LMT and LHX on fire. Why not GD now lol

GD is the Pfizer of Defense Stocks.  They can do OK and nobody 

GD is a great company and buy. How dare you put them and Pfizer in the same sentence lol 
GD will be $225 at some point. I have been looking to add as well 
 
T is T. Buy and hold for income over 20 years and you will do well.
DIS I like as well. It was a great buy under $120 a year ago

[fenders53]

(04-09-2021, 09:37 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-09-2021, 09:19 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-09-2021, 08:55 AM)stockguru Wrote: added GD, DIS and T

NOC, LMT and LHX on fire. Why not GD now lol

GD is the Pfizer of Defense Stocks.  They can do OK and nobody 

GD is a great company and buy. How dare you put them and Pfizer in the same sentence lol 
GD will be $225 at some point. I have been looking to add as well 
 
T is T. Buy and hold for income over 20 years and you will do well.
DIS I like as well. It was a great buy under $120 a year ago

GD is a good company, though far from my favorite defense contractor.  So why buy trash when you don't have to?    I am just kidding.  I am pleasantly surprised defense stocks are doing OK.  The recent proposed threat to cut the MIL budget is miniscule. They'll just take it out of personnel.  

Many of my sketchy spec puts sells are expiring worthless today so I need to go find something to buy, or sell more puts.

[ken-do-nim]

I hate to say it, because I've been such a fan of Johnson & Johnson over the years, but I think it's time to leave it behind. I'm seriously considering selling all of it. It is just glued to $160 and won't budge off of it, and the dividend isn't high enough to entertain a non-gainer.

EDIT: I'm keeping a close eye on LLY as well for similar reasons.

[fenders53]

(04-09-2021, 10:35 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I hate to say it, because I've been such a fan of Johnson & Johnson over the years, but I think it's time to leave it behind.  I'm seriously considering selling all of it.  It is just glued to $160 and won't budge off of it, and the dividend isn't high enough to entertain a non-gainer.

EDIT: I'm keeping a close eye on LLY as well for similar reasons.

Hope this comes off the way I intend it.  You aren't cut out for mature DGI stocks at this time.  They look VERY good when your aggressive growth allotment gets whacked in half, and that day will surely come.  That said, history is great to look back on, but just because it was one of my rock stars for decades doesn't make it yours for the next few dacades necessarily.  Running a Mega pharma company isn't easy.  They will have their good and bad years with approvals etc.  Their elective surgery BIZ was shut down for better part of a year and still is in some places.  They still did OK.  The entire sector has been mediocre.  I will always hold some JNJ until the story changes.  I will add on hard dips, maybe trim on good runs.  Its not 1995 JNJ anymore.  They are too large to grow like that now, but they will very likely grow earnings and dividends.  An ETF might be right for you if you still have interest in the sector.  Individual stocks take some serious DD and patience.  A whole lot of patience sometimes.

[ken-do-nim]

No you're right I do, in general, prefer ETFs. But good point about the elective surgery business.