What Did You Buy Today?

[Otter]

HBO Max will be the catalyst, if there is one. If T fails to monetize and create meaningful growth with that over the next three years (that should be plenty of time), then I will exit my position.

[fenders53]

(03-11-2021, 03:52 PM)Otter Wrote: HBO Max will be the catalyst, if there is one. If T fails to monetize and create meaningful growth with that over the next three years (that should be plenty of time), then I will exit my position.

I meant in the next month or so for an option trade.  I do own a little T but not much anymore.  It's on my list of stocks I have to steal or I'm not interested.  Works very well for a safish put sale a number of times a year. Nothing is forever but when it gets 28 and lower the yield seems to get irresistible and it pops soon.

Anyone have a guess when the stimulus wears out and the inflation/rate fears get a little sketchy? I am not going to act on my prediction in any meaningful way but I am thinking we might get a bit of a market run and then some chop for a few months. That could get us into summer. The tech correction was even briefer than I expected it to be. I need to go find some garbage stocks before everyone gets their "investing" stipend.

[Otter]

I think the stimulus will carry us into early Summer, by which point Covid is largely over here in the U.S. and economic activity should be picking up substantially, which should keep markets headed up absent some other black swan event.

To explain my "largely over" comment . . . we are currently vaccinating slightly more than 5% of the total U.S. population on a weekly basis. 25% of adults have now received their first dose. 21% of the U.S. population has already had some strain of Covid. At present rates of vaccination, we are probably less than two months from reaching the threshold for herd immunity.

I fully anticipate that by April, most if not all states will have opened up vaccine availability to anyone who wants it, regardless of age cohort or comorbidities. Alaska has already done that, and more states will follow in the coming weeks. By April I would not be surprised to hear public service advertisements being broadcast far and wide, begging the unvaccinated (including those who previously caught Covid) to go to their local pharmacy or Dollar General to get their free vaccine. The switchover from a supply shortage to a demand shortage will be swift. Most of the timelines posted on various state/county public health department websites are woefully outdated at this point, which isn't surprising when you consider the typical planning process that goes into developing/publishing those things.

Latest on the vaccines from the CDC includes:
1. Fully vaccinated are safe around the unvaccinated
2. Vaccines not only prevent infection, but prevent transmission

Also, recent peer-reviewed studies show that the vaccines are effective against all of the newly discovered variants (including the B117 and P1 variants). Israel is about 60 days ahead of us in terms of per capita vaccinations, and their infection rate has dropped off a cliff, despite reopening essentially everything. Things are going to change to the positive almost as fast as the wheels came off in March, 2020.

So, immediate stimulus sugar high, followed by GDP growth as things rapidly transition back to normal.

[fenders53]

That sounds rational and the job market should recover. I think Powell will have his hands full but the market will learn to adjust to modestly higher rates. That needs to happen IMO. I don't desire the zero rate solution longterm.
I just want the stock market to rise 12% a year forever. : ) The fact that we bounced and broke out halfway through a pandemic is the most amazing market feat I will likely ever witness.

[Otter]

(03-11-2021, 10:30 PM)fenders53 Wrote: That sounds rational and the job market should recover.  I think Powell will have his hands full but the market will learn to adjust to modestly higher rates.  That needs to happen IMO.  I don't desire the zero rate solution longterm.
I just want the stock market to rise 12% a year forever.  : )  The fact that we bounced and broke out halfway through  a pandemic is the most amazing market feat I will likely ever witness.

Stagflation (rising rates and falling employment) is problematic for markets. The 1970s were unkind.

Ordinary inflation is fine. Equities inflate along with other assets. 

Just like COVID saw the biggest job losses in history over a very short time span, there will probably be some staggering job gains in the coming months, as reopening happens quickly across the U.S.

Any pressure from 10yr yields is likely to be outweighed by GDP growth numbers this country hasn’t seen in decades, triggered by a rapid return to normal economic activity. 

I wouldn’t want to be holding a ton of cash (at least not dollars) at the moment.

[fenders53]

I invested most of my freshman year Gov college loan in a CD because I didn't need the money for about 8 months. Paid an early withdrawal penalty and netted about 9% That's my only pleasant economic memory from the 70s early 80s lol.

My cash basket is concerning but it's cash for a reason. I may have to break down and invest some of it if inflation shows up. I could sell a few strike 100 MSFT puts I guess. I want no part of long bonds. I'm sure some retirees didn't expect near zero yields.

[fenders53]

Retail recommendations for the near and long term? I'd like to play the stimulus boost. I'll trim before the YOY comps (non-stimulus assisted) come into play. I already own DG and VSTO and add to them on dips. I am thinking TGT. I'd need a dip for HD so maybe just a put sell for now. Open to other ideas. I do prefer something I can hold at least some of the shares long-term so Dividend growth potential is preferred.

[EricL]

(03-12-2021, 08:27 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Retail recommendations for the near and long term?  I'd like to play the stimulus boost.  I'll trim before the YOY comps (non-stimulus assisted) come into play. I already own DG and VSTO and add to them on dips.  I am thinking TGT.  I'd need a dip for HD so maybe just a put sell for now.  Open to other ideas.  I do prefer something I can hold at least some of the shares long-term so Dividend growth potential is preferred.

TSCO should continue to do well with stimmy checks flowing.

I also think TGT should continue to do well. They've made huge strides in online and curb-side delivery, and with  loss of competition with Kmart/Shopko and the likes going out of business in recent years, it should continue to see boost in sales with another big round of stimulus checks coming through.

LOW, HD, COST. 

ROST and TJX as the economy opens up.

This round of stimulus will have a big impact on lower and middle-class families. A family of five gets $7000 plus there are extra payments over the course of the year due to expanded child tax credits. 

Retail should do very well, the question is how much is already baked in to share price.

[Otter]

My SPTN shares got called away. Replaced with AEP.

[Otter]

(03-11-2021, 03:52 PM)Otter Wrote: HBO Max will be the catalyst, if there is one. If T fails to monetize and create meaningful growth with that over the next three years (that should be plenty of time), then I will exit my position.

Apparently the HBO Max update for investor day was a hit. Haven't seen positive price action like this on T in a long time.

[ChadR]

Added to AAPL, BIP, NEE, WEC, and XEL.

[divmenow]

Added BABA. Will add more if it reaches $225. Trading at only 1x sales now.