What Did You Buy Today?

[stockguru]

(12-09-2020, 09:09 AM)divmenow Wrote: I am staying clear on the airbnb and Door Dash IPO's . No way in hell would I pay that kind of premium to get in. Let it come down from all the hype. I can give you 200 names I would buy before I put any money into those names. Sure it may go up and you make $$. But I have to stick to my formula and I don't buy stocks that every Dick and Larry are saying buy, buy, buy lol

Now if Chick fil A ever came out IPO I would pay 20X lol

Haha Chick Fil a would put all these companies to shame   . No parking lots are fuller

As far as Airb and Door Dash. Agreed 100%. But I still may buy my 1 share each lol

[Otter]

In DGI stock news, started an initial position in UHT.

[fenders53]

(12-09-2020, 09:09 AM)divmenow Wrote: I am staying clear on the airbnb and Door Dash IPO's . No way in hell would I pay that kind of premium to get in. Let it come down from all the hype. I can give you 200 names I would buy before I put any money into those names. Sure it may go up and you make $$. But I have to stick to my formula and I don't buy stocks that every Dick and Larry are saying buy, buy, buy lol

Now if Chick fil A ever came out IPO I would pay 20X lol

That strategy has cost me some money lately, but I agree you gotta stick to your personal plan for the most part.

And if Chick fila went public the PE would be 240 and I might pay it lol.

[crimsonghost747]

(12-09-2020, 08:41 AM)Otter Wrote: What we (me, wife, friends we travel with during non-pandemic years) like about Airbnb is the broad geographic footprint, the filters that allow us to customize what we want in accommodations (hot tub, parking, laundry facilities, etc.), and the fact that it is not a hotel. 

Good luck finding a hotel chain that covers all those bases (there aren't any). 
As to the stay experience/customization, we can typically pick the exact neighborhood we want to stay in. 

If you stick to one hotel chain, then indeed your options are pretty limited. Personally I tend to avoid those like the plague. If you just open, say booking.com, you will find probably find tens of hotels in the exact area where you want to go to. Booking.com and Agoda together have been enough for me to find accommodation almost everywhere I've been to. Some of the really remote areas in Armenia and Georgia might have been the only exception, there it was purely about asking the driver to find a place and he would drop you off at someone's door who had an extra bed. Not sure if airbnb would have worked there... my guess is no.

Both of the above do also offer "alternative" accommodations, such as rooms, apartments, villas etc. (this is a fairly new thing with them, obviously in response to the popularity of airbnb) I chose the Guatemala link you posted by random out of the 4. Booking.com has 5 or 6 similar looking properties within a few hundred meters of that location.

And I definitely agree with you, what I really liked about airbnb is that it's not a hotel. But in recent times, a lot of the airbnb's that I have stayed in have been pretty much like hotels. Might be because usually I stay in 1 bedroom apartments. I really miss those days when it was full of people putting up their apartment for a couple of weeks while they are away, it truly was a different feeling back then.

Airbnb certainly has it's uses. But it has moved on from the "friendly and casual" style and affordable prices and adopted a much more corporate feel. I'm afraid this puts it right next to the hundreds of other accommodation booking websites.

If you compare it to say Booking holdings (BKNG) which has a market cap of $88 billion. That comes at a P/E of over 60. (pretty high, right? Then again it is 2020 and the travel sector has been hammered) It has been profitable since 2005. Made about as much profit as airbnb had revenue in 2019. It looks to be the clear market leader when it comes to accommodation and is well diversified within the travel sector. (hotel booking, car rental, flight search engines etc.)
Airbnb is aiming for a valuation of $40-ish billion at the IPO. BKNG might look overvalued but what does that make Airbnb?

[kblake]

Looks like the teach bubble is finally starting to pop lol

While all you guys were buying those high flyers like CRWD, TWLO and U

I hopped in on XON, LOW, T and those beaten down names. Its paying off at least for today lol

Added a few more BAX this morning

[fenders53]

(12-09-2020, 01:02 PM)kblake Wrote: Looks like the teach bubble is finally starting to pop lol

While all you guys were buying those high flyers like CRWD, TWLO and U

I hopped in on XON, LOW, T and those beaten down names. Its paying off at least for today lol

Added a few more BAX this morning

I am about to trim T if it keeps running.  It's been a good one this quarter.  Income and capital gain. 

I sold a put in BMY and DG.  Added a few more shares of XEL and started a position in SWKS for the growthy port.  Just one share.  Hoping tech gets hit some soon but not holding my breath.

DASH has launched. Three hours old and over half the market CAP of MCD. SBUX is the only other restaurant stock with a higher CAP. Seems legit.

Not suggesting it's exactly the same market wide, but the gambling has now entered the zone of Tech bubble 2000. People are going to get wrecked again. It's going to be just as brutal.

[Otter]

(12-09-2020, 12:38 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:

(12-09-2020, 08:41 AM)Otter Wrote: What we (me, wife, friends we travel with during non-pandemic years) like about Airbnb is the broad geographic footprint, the filters that allow us to customize what we want in accommodations (hot tub, parking, laundry facilities, etc.), and the fact that it is not a hotel. 

Good luck finding a hotel chain that covers all those bases (there aren't any). 
As to the stay experience/customization, we can typically pick the exact neighborhood we want to stay in. 

If you stick to one hotel chain, then indeed your options are pretty limited. Personally I tend to avoid those like the plague. If you just open, say booking.com, you will find probably find tens of hotels in the exact area where you want to go to. Booking.com and Agoda together have been enough for me to find accommodation almost everywhere I've been to. Some of the really remote areas in Armenia and Georgia might have been the only exception, there it was purely about asking the driver to find a place and he would drop you off at someone's door who had an extra bed. Not sure if airbnb would have worked there... my guess is no.

Both of the above do also offer "alternative" accommodations, such as rooms, apartments, villas etc. (this is a fairly new thing with them, obviously in response to the popularity of airbnb) I chose the Guatemala link you posted by random out of the 4. Booking.com has 5 or 6 similar looking properties within a few hundred meters of that location.

And I definitely agree with you, what I really liked about airbnb is that it's not a hotel. But in recent times, a lot of the airbnb's that I have stayed in have been pretty much like hotels. Might be because usually I stay in 1 bedroom apartments. I really miss those days when it was full of people putting up their apartment for a couple of weeks while they are away, it truly was a different feeling back then.

Airbnb certainly has it's uses. But it has moved on from the "friendly and casual" style and affordable prices and adopted a much more corporate feel. I'm afraid this puts it right next to the hundreds of other accommodation booking websites.

If you compare it to say Booking holdings (BKNG) which has a market cap of $88 billion. That comes at a P/E of over 60. (pretty high, right? Then again it is 2020 and the travel sector has been hammered) It has been profitable since 2005. Made about as much profit as airbnb had revenue in 2019. It looks to be the clear market leader when it comes to accommodation and is well diversified within the travel sector. (hotel booking, car rental, flight search engines etc.)
Airbnb is aiming for a valuation of $40-ish billion at the IPO. BKNG might look overvalued but what does that make Airbnb?

To me, the benefit of hotels was the loyalty program, when regularly staying at properties for business travel. The points for free rooms when planning my own vacation travel, and upgrades were nice perks. That's not enough to get me to pursue major hotel chains for vacation travel, even with lifetime Platinum with Marriott, Accor Gold (spend-based tier, so book one long vacation stay at a Sofitel and earning status is easy), and Hilton Gold (credit card perk). If a particular hotel makes sense, and I can transfer Amex/Citi/Chase points to that hotel program for a free stay, I will still do it. 

Wholly agree on Booking.com. I have used it extensively. I find it very useful for boutique properties, especially in Asia. They make booking Ryokans in Japan easier than any other website I have used.

Also, in my experience, many properties listed on Airbnb are not exclusively listed there. You can find them on VRBO, other booking sites, and sometimes the property has its own website. I usually start with Airbnb for my search, though, as they make filtering by location/amenity and saving favorite properties on the app and website super easy. Once I am already in their app/website, booking through them is just simple and straightforward. There are lots of companies that do some version of what they do (Expedia has a wide selection of alternative properties as well), but from the tech/UI aspect, Airbnb does it better in my opinion (the Booking.com website is clunky in my opinion, compared to Airbnb). Their pairing of Experiences with stays is also not a novel concept, but I think they handle the marketing/presentation better than other companies. 

Last stats I saw estimated 150 million total users of Airbnb as of 2018. So, lots of potential room to expand in the travel market. The year-on-year revenue growth percentages for the past five years look a lot more like a fast growing tech company than an online travel agent (still in massive growth mode - 30.5% revenue growth from 2018 to 2019, and bigger percentages in prior years). As I said, going with familiarity and gut feeling on this pick, and it is a small part of my overall portfolio, but I think this will join a few other MoMo stocks that went public this year.

[vbin]

Mind boggling who buys at these valuations? Look at c3.ai today. I would have closed my eyes and threw some money at $50 but it opens at $100. Absurd.

[Otter]

(12-09-2020, 01:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-09-2020, 01:02 PM)kblake Wrote: Looks like the teach bubble is finally starting to pop lol

While all you guys were buying those high flyers like CRWD, TWLO and U

I hopped in on XON, LOW, T and those beaten down names. Its paying off at least for today lol

Added a few more BAX this morning

I am about to trim T if it keeps running.  It's been a good one this quarter.  Income and capital gain. 

I sold a put in BMY and DG.  Added a few more shares of XEL and started a position in SWKS for the growthy port.  Just one share.  Hoping tech gets hit some soon but not holding my breath.

DASH has launched.  Three hours old and over half the market CAP of MCD.  SBUX is the only other restaurant stock with a higher CAP.  Seems legit.  

Not suggesting it's exactly the same market wide, but the gambling has now entered the zone of Tech bubble 2000.  People are going to get wrecked again. It's going to be just as brutal.

Absent a change in interest rates (unlikely), I don't know that this is true. Interest rates in 2000 were way higher.

As permabear Ray Dalio has pointed out, investments compete with each other for market share (bonds, equities, real estate, gold, etc.), and treasuries are presently trading around 75x earnings. Given that, a 50x P/E norm for stocks wouldn't be outside of historical ratios. You might not like it, it might not feel right, but it would fit the traditional relationship between stocks and treasuries. I'm old enough to remember when TINA was a thing, back during the post-2008 monetary expansion. The most hated bull market in history (until maybe this one). 

Also, how much of the recent run up in stock prices is tied to fundamentals vs. erosion in the value of the dollar. Just look at the charts for UUP and UDN. The Fed printing has had a noticeable impact on the value of the dollar vs. the basket of currencies it is typically priced against. Still kicking myself for closing out my UUP Puts purchased back in the March/April timeframe.

[fenders53]

(12-09-2020, 01:34 PM)Otter Wrote:

(12-09-2020, 01:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-09-2020, 01:02 PM)kblake Wrote: Looks like the teach bubble is finally starting to pop lol

While all you guys were buying those high flyers like CRWD, TWLO and U

I hopped in on XON, LOW, T and those beaten down names. Its paying off at least for today lol

Added a few more BAX this morning

I am about to trim T if it keeps running.  It's been a good one this quarter.  Income and capital gain. 

I sold a put in BMY and DG.  Added a few more shares of XEL and started a position in SWKS for the growthy port.  Just one share.  Hoping tech gets hit some soon but not holding my breath.

DASH has launched.  Three hours old and over half the market CAP of MCD.  SBUX is the only other restaurant stock with a higher CAP.  Seems legit.  

Not suggesting it's exactly the same market wide, but the gambling has now entered the zone of Tech bubble 2000.  People are going to get wrecked again. It's going to be just as brutal.

Absent a change in interest rates (unlikely), I don't know that this is true. Interest rates in 2000 were way higher.

As permabear Ray Dalio has pointed out, investments compete with each other for market share (bonds, equities, real estate, gold, etc.), and treasuries are presently trading around 75x earnings. Given that, a 50x P/E norm for stocks wouldn't be outside of historical ratios. You might not like it, it might not feel right, but it would fit the traditional relationship between stocks and treasuries. I'm old enough to remember when TINA was a thing, back during the post-2008 monetary expansion. The most hated bull market in history (until maybe this one). 

Also, how much of the recent run up in stock prices is tied to fundamentals vs. erosion in the value of the dollar. Just look at the charts for UUP and UDN. The Fed printing has had a noticeable impact on the value of the dollar vs. the basket of currencies it is typically priced against. Still kicking myself for closing out my UUP Puts purchased back in the March/April timeframe.

I refuse to rationalize the flagrant gambling.  I am not talking about the entire market, but the list of new pure gambling stocks is starting to get long.  The IPOs will accelerate until the market will take no more.  Why wouldn't you right now?  They will be crushed.  No I don't know the date of this event but it will happen.  A non-profit food delivery service worth more than anything else in the entire restaurant sector minus MCD and SBUX in three hours.  Worth way more than YUM, DRI, CBRL, Chipolte. Yeah, just no.

[crimsonghost747]

(12-09-2020, 01:27 PM)Otter Wrote: As I said, going with familiarity and gut feeling on this pick, and it is a small part of my overall portfolio, but I think this will join a few other MoMo stocks that went public this year.

I do like Airbnb for a quick trade, indeed I find it very likely that it will climb significantly from it's IPO price. That seems to be the norm for recent tech IPOs and the buzz around Airbnb should make it happen here too. Of course I could be completely wrong, but indeed I'm considering a quick trade.

But long-term? I just don't think Airbnb has any sort of a major moat or competitive advantage compared to other similar companies. It might be an ok company, but I'm going to quote our buddy fenders here and say "valuation does matter". Or something like that. 

[Otter]

(12-09-2020, 01:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-09-2020, 01:34 PM)Otter Wrote:

(12-09-2020, 01:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-09-2020, 01:02 PM)kblake Wrote: Looks like the teach bubble is finally starting to pop lol

While all you guys were buying those high flyers like CRWD, TWLO and U

I hopped in on XON, LOW, T and those beaten down names. Its paying off at least for today lol

Added a few more BAX this morning

I am about to trim T if it keeps running.  It's been a good one this quarter.  Income and capital gain. 

I sold a put in BMY and DG.  Added a few more shares of XEL and started a position in SWKS for the growthy port.  Just one share.  Hoping tech gets hit some soon but not holding my breath.

DASH has launched.  Three hours old and over half the market CAP of MCD.  SBUX is the only other restaurant stock with a higher CAP.  Seems legit.  

Not suggesting it's exactly the same market wide, but the gambling has now entered the zone of Tech bubble 2000.  People are going to get wrecked again. It's going to be just as brutal.

Absent a change in interest rates (unlikely), I don't know that this is true. Interest rates in 2000 were way higher.

As permabear Ray Dalio has pointed out, investments compete with each other for market share (bonds, equities, real estate, gold, etc.), and treasuries are presently trading around 75x earnings. Given that, a 50x P/E norm for stocks wouldn't be outside of historical ratios. You might not like it, it might not feel right, but it would fit the traditional relationship between stocks and treasuries. I'm old enough to remember when TINA was a thing, back during the post-2008 monetary expansion. The most hated bull market in history (until maybe this one). 

Also, how much of the recent run up in stock prices is tied to fundamentals vs. erosion in the value of the dollar. Just look at the charts for UUP and UDN. The Fed printing has had a noticeable impact on the value of the dollar vs. the basket of currencies it is typically priced against. Still kicking myself for closing out my UUP Puts purchased back in the March/April timeframe.

I refuse to rationalize the flagrant gambling.  I am not talking about the entire market, but the list of new pure gambling stocks is starting to get long.  The IPOs will accelerate until the market will take no more.  Why wouldn't you right now?  They will be crushed.  No I don't know the date of this event but it will happen.  A non-profit food delivery service worth more than anything else in the entire restaurant sector minus MCD and SBUX in three hours.  Worth way more than YUM, DRI, CBRL, Chipolte. Yeah, just no.

I’m totally onboard the Dash is trash train. I don’t find it investable, nor have I been interested in many of the other IPO listings this year.

Then again, I was also bearish on TSLA for a long period. They managed to shoot the insolvency gap successfully. Good for them. Still not a buyer of TSLA, though.