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added BMY, MRK and XOM
I like the drug stocks as I just feel the market has gone up way too fast now with no earnings growth. I'm looking for safety.
Sold out of a few names that have ran up too fast.
I may take a position in HRL as well today.
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05-26-2020, 08:55 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-26-2020, 09:20 AM by fenders53.)
(05-26-2020, 08:47 AM)kblake Wrote: added BMY, MRK and XOM
I like the drug stocks as I just feel the market has gone up way too fast now with no earnings growth. I'm looking for safety.
Sold out of a few names that have ran up too fast.
I may take a position in HRL as well today.
I agree but have already bought everything you mentioned a little lower. I am off today so maybe I'll buy some Coors and help some forum brothers out who are invested in TAP. 
And yes the market is drunk again. I'll try to find something to buy but it won't be easy.
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DE running significantly higher is absolute insanity. If anybody owns it I have a link from my local newspaper you should read. I live near DE world HQ. I am about to short them again. I am undefeated at that game. The market defies logic.
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(05-26-2020, 09:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote: DE running significantly higher is absolute insanity. If anybody owns it I have a link from my local newspaper you should read. I live near DE world HQ. I am about to short them again. I am undefeated at that game. The market defies logic.
I agree, but I've been wrong on DE many times in the past.
Farm country is in really, really rough shape right now between years of bad weather, trade wars, and food supply disruption with the pandemic. I don't see a quick turnaround for DE earnings.
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(05-26-2020, 09:38 AM)EricL Wrote: (05-26-2020, 09:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote: DE running significantly higher is absolute insanity. If anybody owns it I have a link from my local newspaper you should read. I live near DE world HQ. I am about to short them again. I am undefeated at that game. The market defies logic.
I agree, but I've been wrong on DE many times in the past.
Farm country is in really, really rough shape right now between years of bad weather, trade wars, and food supply disruption with the pandemic. I don't see a quick turnaround for DE earnings.
The DE engineers I pal around with are smart guys, and next to clueless in the financial markets. When they start getting giddy I know I better get ready to short. I about beg them to trust me and just sell a couple hundred shares for a few months or so. I don't do straight up shorts as I prefer to have 100% control of my downside risk. I am 5-0 in the past year lol. DE cuts their revenue estimates every 60 days or so. Layoffs are coming. The stock is 30%+ overvalued. Lord help them if the US gets too aggressive and blows up the PH 1 trade deal. I only have one long share of DE left lol. I'll jump in long for real when reality sets in. I just need a reasonable price I won't regret for 5 years. DE is about as cyclical as it gets and farmers are scared to buy expensive equipment, as they should be. Mining and construction industry isn't any less risky for a year or two.
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I just "shorted' DE at a bit over $150. I'll lose money if it runs much past $156 in the next few weeks. This is a "gut play" but the fundamentals are on my side. Wish me luck.
Started a small position in HRL with a 25 share buy. Also sold a JUN put at $45 and received almost a years worth of dividends in advance. I'll keep doing that every month until I get more shares. If the market pulls back I'll get more serious with more than one put sale at a time and get a full position. HRL is an awesome company with next to no debt, but I have no illusion it is undervalued here. It's right at my lower limit for dividend yield for a slow growth company, no matter how good the balance sheet is.
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(05-26-2020, 10:53 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I just "shorted' DE at a bit over $150. I'll lose money if it runs much past $156 in the next few weeks. This is a "gut play" but the fundamentals are on my side. Wish me luck.
Started a small position in HRL with a 25 share buy. Also sold a JUN put at $45 and received almost a years worth of dividends in advance. I'll keep doing that every month until I get more shares. If the market pulls back I'll get more serious with more than one put sale at a time and get a full position. HRL is an awesome company with next to no debt, but I have no illusion it is undervalued here. It's right at my lower limit for dividend yield for a slow growth company, no matter how good the balance sheet is.
I agree that HRL is fully valued, if not overvalued, but its stability and balance sheet make it attractive in the current economy.
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(05-26-2020, 11:08 AM)EricL Wrote: (05-26-2020, 10:53 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I just "shorted' DE at a bit over $150. I'll lose money if it runs much past $156 in the next few weeks. This is a "gut play" but the fundamentals are on my side. Wish me luck.
Started a small position in HRL with a 25 share buy. Also sold a JUN put at $45 and received almost a years worth of dividends in advance. I'll keep doing that every month until I get more shares. If the market pulls back I'll get more serious with more than one put sale at a time and get a full position. HRL is an awesome company with next to no debt, but I have no illusion it is undervalued here. It's right at my lower limit for dividend yield for a slow growth company, no matter how good the balance sheet is.
I agree that HRL is fully valued, if not overvalued, but its stability and balance sheet make it attractive in the current economy.
If HRL were to drop a couple bucks I'd get serious about a full position. This may sound crazy but it would be my replacement for a 20yr treasury yield. My cash reserve account yields are dropping at a literal 5-10% a week pace. Almost 2% risk free 15 months ago. Now sub 1/2%. That doesn't work for anything more than pocket change. It will kill my overall port income. "TINA" is real right now. I'd sure hate to be 75yrs old right now and forced to take risk. I'm sure many are living this and watching their safe income die with no end in sight.
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05-26-2020, 03:05 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-26-2020, 03:06 PM by divmenow.)
About time value had its day in the sun. PH love that move today!!
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(05-26-2020, 03:05 PM)divmenow Wrote: About time value had its day in the sun. PH love that move today!!
That was pretty crazy. Of course anything I have sold the last six months was also up whether it is truly a dog or not
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(05-26-2020, 03:35 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-26-2020, 03:05 PM)divmenow Wrote: About time value had its day in the sun. PH love that move today!!
That was pretty crazy. Of course anything I have sold the last six months was also up whether it is truly a dog or not
Everytime you keep saying this market is crazy we go up. Keep saying that 
BTW You better start buying some oil stocks. They will be next to explode on the upside. Just saying
HRL and CPB are names on my buy list. Hope they get cheaper as the market rotates.
How about those banks?? Did I see that up wow .... Big moves lol
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05-26-2020, 04:20 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-26-2020, 04:26 PM by fenders53.)
(05-26-2020, 03:48 PM)divmenow Wrote: (05-26-2020, 03:35 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-26-2020, 03:05 PM)divmenow Wrote: About time value had its day in the sun. PH love that move today!!
That was pretty crazy. Of course anything I have sold the last six months was also up whether it is truly a dog or not
Everytime you keep saying this market is crazy we go up. Keep saying that
BTW You better start buying some oil stocks. They will be next to explode on the upside. Just saying
HRL and CPB are names on my buy list. Hope they get cheaper as the market rotates.
How about those banks?? Did I see that up wow .... Big moves lol
The market has lost all connection with economic reality. This is why I am always invested though. I might be crying I am too cashy but I never miss out on a strong up day. If the market crashes I'll be ready. If if goes up every week for the rest of my life, that will work too lol.
There is only one other time I recall a market this irrational. You remember 1999? No this isn't just the same, but the PEs will sure rhyme when some of these companies fail to post a meaningful profit without massaging the earnings report. And they conveniently ceased giving guidance because they know damn well it might happen for several quarters.
And nobody here thinks HRL is cheap. We just know it is one less stock to stress out a port. I'd be thrilled to add hundreds more shares at a better price if I get a chance. For now I will steal put premiums and I'll have a years worth of divs up front. I am impatient so I want to drip some shares before I even own the shares lol. And if I get assigned I'll qualify for a dividend a couple weeks later and drip some more shares. I like free shares.
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