What Did You Buy Today?

[fenders53]

(05-04-2020, 03:22 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-04-2020, 03:14 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Hindsight is always fun to second guess.  It looks clearly overvalued now but if you sold it early 2018 when it was overvalued you just missed a double. Nobody said this was easy.  

Past earnings and stock price are the only hard data we have. By P/E ratio, DG is presently valued above forecast 2023 earnings, using its historical averages. 

Chuck Carnevale's consistent position on looking for value within the DGI space has always resonated with me. If all that mattered to me was the dividend going up each year, I'd just sell my entire portfolio and buy VDIGX.

Eric and I both give respect to Chuck's data and use it for buy decisions.  Above average growth is about the only thing that makes it tough.  As you are well aware the market assigns a huge premium for that, and we never know what year order is restored,  but it will be restored.  Fast graphs is better at telling when it's safest to buy, rather than when to sell.  Selling always the hardest part IMO.

[Otter]

(05-04-2020, 03:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-04-2020, 03:22 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-04-2020, 03:14 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Hindsight is always fun to second guess.  It looks clearly overvalued now but if you sold it early 2018 when it was overvalued you just missed a double. Nobody said this was easy.  

Past earnings and stock price are the only hard data we have. By P/E ratio, DG is presently valued above forecast 2023 earnings, using its historical averages. 

Chuck Carnevale's consistent position on looking for value within the DGI space has always resonated with me. If all that mattered to me was the dividend going up each year, I'd just sell my entire portfolio and buy VDIGX.

Eric and I both give respect to Chuck's data and use it for buy decisions.  Above average growth is about the only thing that makes it tough.  As you are well aware the market assigns a huge premium for that, and we never know what year order is restored,  but it will be restored.  Fast graphs is better at telling when it's safest to buy, rather than when to sell.  Selling always the hardest part IMO.

I find selling very hard, unless the dividend gets cut or is at serious risk of being cut. GE needs 400% gains from where it is today just to get back to where it was before the first big cut in 2017 was anticipated by the market.

[fenders53]

O beat earnings and collected 83% of April rent. That's good if it doesn't get worse going forward. Doesn't sound like a 2020 Rev or EPS growth story but this outcome may be priced in, or close enough.

[ChadR]

Added to MO & IVZ.

[fenders53]

(05-04-2020, 03:34 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-04-2020, 03:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-04-2020, 03:22 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-04-2020, 03:14 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Hindsight is always fun to second guess.  It looks clearly overvalued now but if you sold it early 2018 when it was overvalued you just missed a double. Nobody said this was easy.  

Past earnings and stock price are the only hard data we have. By P/E ratio, DG is presently valued above forecast 2023 earnings, using its historical averages. 

Chuck Carnevale's consistent position on looking for value within the DGI space has always resonated with me. If all that mattered to me was the dividend going up each year, I'd just sell my entire portfolio and buy VDIGX.

Eric and I both give respect to Chuck's data and use it for buy decisions.  Above average growth is about the only thing that makes it tough.  As you are well aware the market assigns a huge premium for that, and we never know what year order is restored,  but it will be restored.  Fast graphs is better at telling when it's safest to buy, rather than when to sell.  Selling always the hardest part IMO.

I find selling very hard, unless the dividend gets cut or is at serious risk of being cut. GE needs 400% gains from where it is today just to get back to where it was before the first big cut in 2017 was anticipated by the market.

I bail within 24hrs on a dividend cut.  Sometimes it pays to wait for the opening dive to recover.  I recall exactly zero times when I didn't have a chance to re-enter later at a better price.  I re-evaluate like it's a brand new position.  I rarely see a good reason to re-enter.  I've been re-evalutating a re-entry into KMI for about five years now.  I'm still good, or maybe I'm just bitter lol.

Seriously though, this crisis might be that one time when you take a time-out and re-enter a position when the price is right.  It's not reasonable to expect a company to fully prepare for this.  But if you were in trouble in a week I got no time for your bad balance sheet management.      

Selling decisions are tough.  I've left a lot of profits on the table over the years, but those were good companies I just thought had outrun their valuation and the market said I was wrong.  Lately I've sold CBRL, DAL, FUN and DOW in my flight to quality.  I'll buy them back cheaper if it makes sense.  Or make income trying to enter on my terms with a put sale.

[desidividend]

been adding GD,WFC,UPS,DFS

[crimsonghost747]

20% of those RDS sales going to LHX today.
Still 40% left.

[fenders53]

I see the market is drunk on all the awesome news again. I was thinking about adding 1000 shares of IP but I guess it will have to wait.

I better go look for something to trim.

[fenders53]

(05-05-2020, 08:50 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: 20% of those RDS sales going to LHX today.
Still 40% left.

I was a little surprised to see them cut 2020 guidance.  I guess nobody is completely immune from the CV.  Great stock anyway.  Some of my Utes are cutting due to our gentle winter.  Hopefully that will cause some bargains but probably not.

[divmenow]

I think oil had legs................. Look at them go

Hmmm should I buy XOM and EOG???

Fenders what does your crystal ball day?? You see $10 a barrel lol

[crimsonghost747]

(05-05-2020, 10:19 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-05-2020, 08:50 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: 20% of those RDS sales going to LHX today.
Still 40% left.

I was a little surprised to see them cut 2020 guidance.  I guess nobody is completely immune from the CV.  Great stock anyway.  Some of my Utes are cutting due to our gentle winter.  Hopefully that will cause some bargains but probably not.

Indeed. According to their Q1 presentation they are expecting a $0.52 per share hit to earnings from the virus in 2020. Apparently it's mostly related to the little exposure they have to commercial aviation and obviously in small part to the added expenses that are required to keep their employees safe.

[stockguru]

While you all are selling RDS I just bought it. It's still paying a 4% yield and I can live with that. I see the dividend cut as good news. This is the first time they have cut the dividend since WW2. That tells you something. The dividend will come back. In the meantime this gives them a chance to pay back debt. Buy it while its at the bottom. They are well manges and one the best at coming out of bad times. The dividend cut was baded on where oil could be heaed. They wanted to be safe then sorry. XOM and others should do the same if they were smart.

Straight from the CEO mouth

We think the business is fundamentally a much better one following the dividend cut, and expect debt levels to fall rapidly over 2021-22

COP did the same back in 2016 and slowly increased the dividend. I see the same happening to RDS.A

As of the end of 2019, Shell had $18.1 billion in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet. Meanwhile, its long-term debt load of $65.9 billion is on the lower end of the spectrum compared to its mega-oil peers, at 1.2 times EBITDA compared to a range of 0.9 times to 2.3 times. It has a high-grade credit rating of AA-/Aa2 from the major ratings agencies, which should ensure it can access additional capital if needed.