What Did You Buy Today?

[fenders53]

(04-29-2020, 01:42 PM)stockguru Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 01:23 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I hope this doesn't come across too harsh.  Thanks for posting all that, I just asked for context because we all read your posts.  If our buys matter then so do our sells.  I don't really care what you are buying on Tuesday if you are selling it on Thursday for a 3% gain and not telling us you're out. This is a DGI forum so whether you are day trading or investing is of some significance.  

As far as 1-2 share trades not mattering, please allow me to very strongly disagree.  I know with certainty a lot of the membership is doing exactly that because I chat with them offline.  That's exactly how I started 30 years ago and it damn sure did matter when I partially retired 10 years earlier than most ever dream of.  Rethink that thought because it comes off a little arrogant.

If you are holding 67 stocks and are up 28%+ YTD total port in a market that is down, that is nothing less than amazing.  You should share your exits because you got it figured out better than most pro traders.  We do that on the option thread chats for better or worse.  It sucks to admit to a loss but we do it.  Transparency is helpful.

That sounds harsh to me. I don't know how he will take it. But this is suppose to be a fun forum and when you criticize ones buying and selling or tell then what they have to post. What's the point in posting then? Your a bully    Everyone has his or own right what to post or not to post. I can't speak for everyone but divennow has helped me out a lot on these boards and messages directly to me. I was a newbie on here an his knowledge and understanding helped me a out great deal. You seem to buy a lot as well. Do you own 200 stocks as well. Because it seems you do the most buying on here; more then anyone. You say you trimmed some names but you don't give details as to which names or how many shares. So isn't that the same thing?? 

And when I said I bought 1-2 shares you laughed at me   Each investor has a different ways to doing things. What works for them, might not work for others. Vice versa. Wouldn't you agree with that?? 

You wrong more times then right. Yeah I said it  Don't but FB, CBRL, VFC, CLX, and the list goes on. All those stocks are up big since then. 

Anyway its all in fun 

I'm am truly sorry if you really think I am a bully here because that isn't my intent.  I'll respond to a few of your accusations lol.  Context is important because others often buy our suggestions 15 minutes later.  I've seen it happen countless times when they post their buy a half hour later.  

I own about 45 stocks and I wish it was 25.  I'm over my head in companies I can track properly. I don't have 45 great ideas and probably never will.  It's not diversification, it's probably me mistakenly thinking I am a mutual fund manager with a research staff.  

Yeah I gave you heck and called you "two share Guru" a couple weeks ago in jest.  Better scroll back a week earlier and see who first posted that dismissive comment.  I'm sure you didn't really mean to dis new investors. I was just teasing you.  I'll "waste" an hour helping a new investor pick between a couple shares of T or MMM.  Pretty sure you will too.  I remember when I was "two shares fenders". 

Point taken on me providing context.  That's a fair criticism.  Almost all of my positions are at least 100 shares, very rarely more than 500.  Maybe smaller if I am building a position in a high dollar stock I know is overvalued.  I might own 200 shares of JNJ and trim it 5 or 10 shares every day it climbs past its value.  I'll be more clear in the future just for you.  When I am "trimming" I am usually just adding a couple K cash hoping something will drop tomorrow for a small add.

Call me wrong all you want but I don't even know what two of the four tickers you listed are.  I'll always be your favorite bear so just deal with it.     If I cause you to look twice I'll call that a win.  I hope for the same skepticism from you.

Finally, Divemenow is a big boy.  I trust we'll work it out.  He knows where to PM me.  If he owns 67 stocks and is truly beating the market by 30% YTD I'm not ashamed to ask for more details.  That is an incredible accomplishment.  I'm not aware of even one Pro fund manager getting even close to that in this market with a diversified port.  Breaking even is a win YTD.  That is why I asked.

[Otter]

(04-29-2020, 07:12 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 01:42 PM)stockguru Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 01:23 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I hope this doesn't come across too harsh.  Thanks for posting all that, I just asked for context because we all read your posts.  If our buys matter then so do our sells.  I don't really care what you are buying on Tuesday if you are selling it on Thursday for a 3% gain and not telling us you're out. This is a DGI forum so whether you are day trading or investing is of some significance.  

As far as 1-2 share trades not mattering, please allow me to very strongly disagree.  I know with certainty a lot of the membership is doing exactly that because I chat with them offline.  That's exactly how I started 30 years ago and it damn sure did matter when I partially retired 10 years earlier than most ever dream of.  Rethink that thought because it comes off a little arrogant.

If you are holding 67 stocks and are up 28%+ YTD total port in a market that is down, that is nothing less than amazing.  You should share your exits because you got it figured out better than most pro traders.  We do that on the option thread chats for better or worse.  It sucks to admit to a loss but we do it.  Transparency is helpful.

That sounds harsh to me. I don't know how he will take it. But this is suppose to be a fun forum and when you criticize ones buying and selling or tell then what they have to post. What's the point in posting then? Your a bully    Everyone has his or own right what to post or not to post. I can't speak for everyone but divennow has helped me out a lot on these boards and messages directly to me. I was a newbie on here an his knowledge and understanding helped me a out great deal. You seem to buy a lot as well. Do you own 200 stocks as well. Because it seems you do the most buying on here; more then anyone. You say you trimmed some names but you don't give details as to which names or how many shares. So isn't that the same thing?? 

And when I said I bought 1-2 shares you laughed at me   Each investor has a different ways to doing things. What works for them, might not work for others. Vice versa. Wouldn't you agree with that?? 

You wrong more times then right. Yeah I said it  Don't but FB, CBRL, VFC, CLX, and the list goes on. All those stocks are up big since then. 

Anyway its all in fun 

I'm am truly sorry if you really think I am a bully here because that isn't my intent.  I'll respond to a few of your accusations lol.  Context is important because others often buy our suggestions 15 minutes later.  I've seen it happen countless times when they post their buy a half hour later.  

I own about 45 stocks and I wish it was 25.  I'm over my head in companies I can track properly. I don't have 45 great ideas and probably never will.  It's not diversification, it's probably me mistakenly thinking I am a mutual fund manager with a research staff.  

Yeah I gave you heck and called you "two share Guru" a couple weeks ago in jest.  Better scroll back a week earlier and see who first posted that dismissive comment.  I'm sure you didn't really mean to dis new investors. I was just teasing you.  I'll "waste" an hour helping a new investor pick between a couple shares of T or MMM.  Pretty sure you will too.  I remember when I was "two shares fenders". 

Point taken on me providing context.  That's a fair criticism.  Almost all of my positions are at least 100 shares, very rarely more than 500.  Maybe smaller if I am building a position in a high dollar stock I know is overvalued.  I might own 200 shares of JNJ and trim it 5 or 10 shares every day it climbs past its value.  I'll be more clear in the future just for you.   When I am "trimming" I am usually just adding a couple K cash hoping something will drop tomorrow for a small add.

Call me wrong all you want but I don't even know what two of the four tickers you listed are.  I'll always be your favorite bear so just deal with it.     If I cause you to look twice I'll call that a win.  I hope for the same skepticism from you.

Finally, Divemenow is a big boy.  I trust we'll work it out.  He knows where to PM me.  If he owns 67 stocks and is truly beating the market by 30% YTD I'm not ashamed to ask for more details.  That is an incredible accomplishment.  I'm not aware of even one Pro fund manager getting even close to that in this market with a diversified port.  Breaking even is a win YTD.  That is why I asked.

I had species identity disorder for about ten weeks and was temporarily a bear. That phase is over for now, but I may indulge bear tendencies again if I think it will be profitable (though it rarely is over long periods of time). 

I don't think you're a bear, though. From most of your posts, it seems you are a cautious investor who pays attention to value. If I were forced to pick a religion, it would probably be value investing coupled with the Golden Rule. So, I get it.

[Otter]

Also, if my posts make less sense than usual right now, I cracked open a bottle of Eagle Rare a couple hours ago. Celebrating that my wife and I will be leaving our current quarantine locale and heading home in a little over a week. Not that it hasn't been nice being in a secluded place far away from civilization, but the thought of ordering delivery on Uber Eats sounds kind of awesome right now.

[fenders53]

Otter,

LOL, I am a fake bear. It's rare when I am less than 60% invested in equities. It's also rare when I don't open 10 option trades every week. But they are almost always conservative $100-200 trades like a bear might do.

[fenders53]

(04-29-2020, 07:29 PM)Otter Wrote: Also, if my posts make less sense than usual right now, I cracked open a bottle of Eagle Rare a couple hours ago. Celebrating that my wife and I will be leaving our current quarantine locale and heading home in a little over a week. Not that it hasn't been nice being in a secluded place far away from civilization, but the thought of ordering delivery on Uber Eats sounds kind of awesome right now.

I had the day off and got in trouble typing some beer posts earlier.  Your CV19 tinfoil hat posts a couple months ago make more sense now.  Glad you survived.  So far anyway lol.  I hear the crazy Texans are running loose in a day or two so be careful.  Welcome back to civilization and please wash your damned hands before you type at us.  

[crimsonghost747]

Sold all of my RDS.
That div cut, this big and this early, together with the suspension of the share buybacks just makes me think that the management doesn't see any way out of this.

For the moment I will take my losses (yay some losses so no taxes!) and rethink the situation with them. I do like the company as a whole so I may very well buy back into it at some point.

[Binary]

Bought a tiny bit of CINF

[fenders53]

(04-30-2020, 02:47 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Sold all of my RDS.
That div cut, this big and this early, together with the suspension of the share buybacks just makes me think that the management doesn't see any way out of this.

For the moment I will take my losses (yay some losses so no taxes!) and rethink the situation with them. I do like the company as a whole so I may very well buy back into it at some point.

They would not have been my prediction for the first true oil major to cut.  Probably an ominous sign for what next earnings reports bring.  Reality is they all need to trim the Div starting about a quarter ago.  I'm not wishing that on anyone of course, but borrowing the Div for long would be a mistake.  It appears a couple of the majors are going to do just that.

It was my intent to wait for a few majors to cut before I re-enter oil.  No other sector has beaten me up so bad.  I am going to get a huge margin of safety or I'll skip it.

[Otter]

(04-30-2020, 08:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 02:47 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Sold all of my RDS.
That div cut, this big and this early, together with the suspension of the share buybacks just makes me think that the management doesn't see any way out of this.

For the moment I will take my losses (yay some losses so no taxes!) and rethink the situation with them. I do like the company as a whole so I may very well buy back into it at some point.

They would not have been my prediction for the first true oil major to cut.  Probably an ominous sign for what next earnings reports bring.  Reality is they all need to trim the Div starting about a quarter ago.  I'm not wishing that on anyone of course, but borrowing the Div for long would be a mistake.  It appears a couple of the majors are going to do just that.

It was my intent to wait for a few majors to cut before I re-enter oil.  No other sector has beaten me up so bad.  I am going to get a huge margin of safety or I'll skip it.

Equinor cut first, and Ive always considered them a major. Norway's sovereign wealth fund depends heavily on them (used to be Statoil). 

They and Shell are making the smart move for the long term. Conserving cash right now will be key to future growth and profitability in this sector. Chevron and Exxon are setting themselves up to be financially engineered debt vehicles to support dividend payments that haven't been covered by free cash flows for years (much less at current crude pricing). There comes a time where prioritizing the dividend is actually detrimental to the company's long-term prospects. SKT is being stupid about this at the moment, too, having maxed out a credit facility just to scrape by with another quarter's payment. That credit could have been saved to give the underlying business flexibility when it needs it most.

[fenders53]

(04-30-2020, 09:25 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 08:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 02:47 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Sold all of my RDS.
That div cut, this big and this early, together with the suspension of the share buybacks just makes me think that the management doesn't see any way out of this.

For the moment I will take my losses (yay some losses so no taxes!) and rethink the situation with them. I do like the company as a whole so I may very well buy back into it at some point.

They would not have been my prediction for the first true oil major to cut.  Probably an ominous sign for what next earnings reports bring.  Reality is they all need to trim the Div starting about a quarter ago.  I'm not wishing that on anyone of course, but borrowing the Div for long would be a mistake.  It appears a couple of the majors are going to do just that.

It was my intent to wait for a few majors to cut before I re-enter oil.  No other sector has beaten me up so bad.  I am going to get a huge margin of safety or I'll skip it.

Equinor cut first, and Ive always considered them a major. Norway's sovereign wealth fund depends heavily on them (used to be Statoil). 

They and Shell are making the smart move for the long term. Conserving cash right now will be key to future growth and profitability in this sector. Chevron and Exxon are setting themselves up to be financially engineered debt vehicles to support dividend payments that haven't been covered by free cash flows for years (much less at current crude pricing). There comes a time where prioritizing the dividend is actually detrimental to the company's long-term prospects. SKT is being stupid about this at the moment, too, having maxed out a credit facility just to scrape by with another quarter's payment. That credit could have been saved to give the underlying business flexibility when it needs it most.

Yeah we just discussed Statoil a week or so ago.  I wasn't aware they were actually a major until it was pointed out.  Some companies are determined to set themselves up for long-term failure to support their Divs the enxt few quarters.  Massive debt and bad credit ratings for a decade is not doing shareholders any favor.  I am noticing a lot of Div cutters SPs were not harmed for more than a few weeks.  They'll almost surely spike back up when they restore the dividend.  I don't like to hold many of them because I desire the income now, but the reality is I'm likely no worse off in a year if the company was sound.  SKT is burying themselves short of a miracle like being acquired.

[crimsonghost747]

(04-30-2020, 09:25 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 08:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 02:47 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Sold all of my RDS.
That div cut, this big and this early, together with the suspension of the share buybacks just makes me think that the management doesn't see any way out of this.

For the moment I will take my losses (yay some losses so no taxes!) and rethink the situation with them. I do like the company as a whole so I may very well buy back into it at some point.

They would not have been my prediction for the first true oil major to cut.  Probably an ominous sign for what next earnings reports bring.  Reality is they all need to trim the Div starting about a quarter ago.  I'm not wishing that on anyone of course, but borrowing the Div for long would be a mistake.  It appears a couple of the majors are going to do just that.

It was my intent to wait for a few majors to cut before I re-enter oil.  No other sector has beaten me up so bad.  I am going to get a huge margin of safety or I'll skip it.

Equinor cut first, and Ive always considered them a major. Norway's sovereign wealth fund depends heavily on them (used to be Statoil). 

They and Shell are making the smart move for the long term. Conserving cash right now will be key to future growth and profitability in this sector. 

I think Shell is, again, doing it the wrong way. My biggest pet peeve about them was their scrip dividend a few years ago (issuing shares instead of handing out money) which, while saving cash, dilutes ownership. You do that when the share price has tanked, then start buying back those shares when the share price gets high and now once again cancel the share repurchases the second the price dips. That is just absolutely atrocious management of cash. 

Why do I bring this up? Because just a few months ago Shell was still happily making billions of dollars excess cash flow per quarter. They did pay down some debt but they also went quite heavily into share repurchases, I think that was at around 25 euros per share. Now, a few months later at 15 euros per share, they are in a situation where they have to stop the repurchases AND dividend just to save cash. The very same cash that just a couple of months ago was "extra" and could be used to purchase and cancel shares. Shares that were issued since they didn't have enough cash in the last down turn.

It might be a smart move to cut the dividend but if that is the case then it should have been done back in 2015.

[fenders53]

(04-30-2020, 10:24 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 09:25 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 08:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-30-2020, 02:47 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Sold all of my RDS.
That div cut, this big and this early, together with the suspension of the share buybacks just makes me think that the management doesn't see any way out of this.

For the moment I will take my losses (yay some losses so no taxes!) and rethink the situation with them. I do like the company as a whole so I may very well buy back into it at some point.

They would not have been my prediction for the first true oil major to cut.  Probably an ominous sign for what next earnings reports bring.  Reality is they all need to trim the Div starting about a quarter ago.  I'm not wishing that on anyone of course, but borrowing the Div for long would be a mistake.  It appears a couple of the majors are going to do just that.

It was my intent to wait for a few majors to cut before I re-enter oil.  No other sector has beaten me up so bad.  I am going to get a huge margin of safety or I'll skip it.

Equinor cut first, and Ive always considered them a major. Norway's sovereign wealth fund depends heavily on them (used to be Statoil). 

They and Shell are making the smart move for the long term. Conserving cash right now will be key to future growth and profitability in this sector. 

I think Shell is, again, doing it the wrong way. My biggest pet peeve about them was their scrip dividend a few years ago (issuing shares instead of handing out money) which, while saving cash, dilutes ownership. You do that when the share price has tanked, then start buying back those shares when the share price gets high and now once again cancel the share repurchases the second the price dips. That is just absolutely atrocious management of cash. 

Why do I bring this up? Because just a few months ago Shell was still happily making billions of dollars excess cash flow per quarter. They did pay down some debt but they also went quite heavily into share repurchases, I think that was at around 25 euros per share. Now, a few months later at 15 euros per share, they are in a situation where they have to stop the repurchases AND dividend just to save cash. The very same cash that just a couple of months ago was "extra" and could be used to purchase and cancel shares. Shares that were issued since they didn't have enough cash in the last down turn.

It might be a smart move to cut the dividend but if that is the case then it should have been done back in 2015.

First of all I don't blame you for selling.  I do it almost automatically on a cut because the chances I can get back in significantly cheaper is VERY high.  The share buybacks are biting every company that did it while they maintained substantial debt.  There are a number of incentives to buyback shares and some of them encourage company officers to look out for themselves ahead of common shareholders.  I was very close to buying RDS based on the recommendation of you and others.  I knew the dividends were iffy for anything oil.  

One of the biggest problems is you now have a loss of shareholder confidence in the CEO.  It was ill advised to all but promise the dividend just a few months ago.  Here in 'mericuh we call that getting 'kindered".     Richard Kinder did the exact same thing about 5 years ago.  Raised and promised the Div, then cut it literally weeks later.  I was not at all pleased.  It definitely needed done, and KMI lived on, but it takes a LONG time to roll your shareholders over so the vast majority were not a victim.  Management has to be very careful with their promises because they won't be forgotten.  RDS will be most everyone's last super-major choice until others cut, which I expect within 90 days if things don't change in a big hurry.  Doesn't seem like a reasonable expectation but this is a commodity.   

In conclusion.  You keep venting.  Get that rage out!  We're here for you  lol.  It didn't go down like it should have.